Washington Capitals Path to Winning the Stanley Cup

The Washington Capitals remain one of the most promising teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. How can they win the Stanley Cup?

The Washington Capitals are infamous for their second round curse. They remain one of the best teams in the NHL, especially in the regular season, where they’ve won the last two President’s Cups. But they’re never able to make it out of the second round of the playoffs. Can that change this year? And if it does, how can the Capitals win the Stanley Cup?

Round 1: Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

The Washington Capitals face an initial challenge from young upstart Toronto. Oh man, it feels weird to see Toronto in the playoffs again. The Maple Leafs have earned it though, what with Auston Matthews being the clear rookie of the year for this season.

But they’re not going to earn a win against the Washington Capitals. The Capitals do have a curse, but it’s not the first round or the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Capitals are going to take this series in five or six games, but more likely the shorter one.

Toronto is just too young and inexperienced. The only guy who’s been here before is goaltender Frederik Andersen. The other players with playoff experience, their last run was a 4-1 collapse against the Boston Bruins. This is not the year to avenge that loss.

The Capitals depth, health, goaltending, all of it will prove too much for the Maple Leafs to overcome. I like the Leafs, I really do, but this is not a winnable series yet. In the future, maybe, but not right now.

Washington’s defense and offense are just much better than Toronto’s. The Capitals are putting up an average of 3.18 goals per game and limiting opponents to just 2.16. That’s a full goal differential, and that exists for a reason. Toronto’s allowing 2.85 per game, and the young defense is going to come back to bite them.

And now for the heavy stat. Washington was 5th in the league in Corsi against. That means they were limiting opponents chances at the net consistently over the season. Their Corsi For% was fourth in the league, meaning that they were the ones getting the puck on the opposing net 51.8% of their games. Toronto’s nowhere close in terms of possession.

Round 2: Washington Vs. (Prediction) Pittsburgh Penguins

I’m taking the Pittsburgh Penguins to eke out a win against the Columbus Blue Jackets, although I believe that to be the hardest series to predict. Columbus could very well get their own four victories, but for the purposes of this piece, Pittsburgh wins.

And then they’re immediately exposed as being utterly defenseless (literally) against one of the better offensive teams in the league. Kris Letang‘s absence over the playoffs will be exposed versus the Capitals, and it’s what will cost the Penguins the series. That’s right, Washington finally does it.

Like I said, Washington’s defense was 5th best in terms of possession this season. If they’re able to deploy that specific unit, consisted of six great defensemen – from John Carlson and Matt Niskanen to Dmitry Orlov and Kevin Shattenkirk to Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt. This is a team that can slow Pittsburgh’s aggressive forecheck.

And then turn it right around on a vulnerable Penguins defense. Honestly, the Penguins best defenseman in the playoffs might be Olli Maatta. This season, that isn’t great. And the Capitals are going to take advantage. With scorers like Alexander Ovechkin (69 points), Nick Backstrom (86), Evgeny Kuznetsov (59), and Marcus Johansson (58), it’s a unit that’s going to be exploited.

Which means that Washington will finally overcome their beast of burden, the Pittsburgh Penguins. In six games. If they go to seven it gets iffier.

 Round 3: Washington Vs. Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens are able to get past the Rangers in six games, and once that happens it’s a clear shot to the ECF again. Neither Ottawa nor Boston can really overcome the fact that Carey Price remains the Canadiens goaltender.

But the Capitals can. Like I said, there’s a lot of good defenseman and scorers on this Capitals team. The Canadiens are going to be weak against that, built strong and sturdy, but slow and defensive. If it comes down to offensive firepower vs. offensive firepower, the Capitals have it in the bag.

The Canadiens lack production, outside of a select few players. Max Pacioretty remains one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. His 35 goals this season were more than even Ovechkin put up. But after Pacioretty, production falls off. Only one player, Paul Byron, put up more than 20 goals besides Max. On the Washington Capitals, the number of twenty goal scorers: 5. Including TJ Oshie and Ovechkin, each with 33.

Montreal does have a better Corsi percentage than Washington, but if it comes down to a battle of offenses (because everything else might be evenly matched), it’s Washington’s series to lose.

Capitals in six.

Stanley Cup Finals: Washington vs. Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks speed through a weaker Central division and the Pacific doesn’t have a fully rounded team capable of stopping recent 3-time Cup Champions. Especially not with the fully capable youth the Blackhawks have added.

This, outside of Pittsburgh, might be the biggest test Washington faces. Can the Capitals, previously incapable of escaping the second playoff round, defeat a team with some of the greatest players in NHL history, who have been in the Finals a lot and have never lost once there?

Maybe. The Capitals have better possession metrics than the Blackhawks, better goaltending throughout the regular season, and more offensive output. But that’s not been measured in the postseason yet.

Historically, Braden Holtby has a .937 SV% and a 1.97 GAA in the playoffs. That includes four shutouts over the Capitals’ last three playoff appearances. Corey Crawford has a .920 and a 2.26. In Blackhawks cup runs, those numbers improve to .924 and a 2.04 GAA. If the Blackhawks and the Capitals face off, it could very well be a battle of goaltenders.

Which is where the offenses come in. Historically, Alexander Ovechkin has been great in the playoffs. In his last two playoff appearances, Ovechkin has 21 points in 26 games. But Patrick Kane, his Chicago counterpart, can be better. Over his last two, Kane has 30 points in 30 games. But Ovechkin also has the benefit of a better center – Backstrom is undoubtedly better than Artem Anisimov – and perhaps a deeper offense.

Next: 2017 Playoffs First Round Predictions: Eastern Conference

The Blackhawks will be the test, but the Washington Capitals can win the goalie matchup and have the better defense. And if they can slow down the Penguins, they can slow down the Hawks. That might provide the win.