2017 Stanley Cup Final: Analytical Breakdown of the First 4 Games

The 2017 Stanley Cup Final has gone 4 games. Both teams have won 2, and before a major game 5, let’s break down how each team has done that.

There are not many available statistics for the 2017 Stanley Cup Final yet. Somethings vital to calculating advanced stats aren’t available.

But what we do have tells a story. One that shows that one team has the ability to dominate the other. And it may not be the team you expect.

Game One

For 37 minutes, the Pittsburgh Penguins were held shotless. The Predators defense was so able to contain Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and the Penguins offense, that they went without a shot on Pekka Rinne.

Nearly two periods. Now, that 37 minutes came after an eight-minute stretch and concluded in another goal-scoring stretch. But still, it was a dominant time by the Predators.

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And that’s what did in the Predators. But looking at this game from an advanced stats perspective, it wasn’t the story the goals told.

For example, calculating Corsi for game one, including shots, missed shots, and blocks, the Predators had a 61.6% Corsi.

In those three collective categories, the Predators won 45 to 28. In shots, 26 to 12. For Fenwick (shots & misses), it’s even worse – 72% by Nashville.

If it wasn’t for Pekka Rinne’s poor performance, it’s a game that Nashville should have won.

Which brings up Pekka. Pekka posted a .583 save percentage in game 1. Just over half of the shots that Pittsburgh launched at him, he stopped.

Those aren’t professional goaltender numbers. Those aren’t NHL goaltender numbers. That’s not Stanley Cup goaltender numbers.

And that’s what killed the Predators. Again, they should have had a win. It’s not like Matt Murray set the world ablaze in Game 1. He posted just a .884 SV%. That’s not Stanley Cup worthy either.

Game Two

The next game the Predators decided to become more physical. They posted 41 hits, won 57% of the faceoffs, and had 19 penalty minutes. They didn’t have the 37 minute period of dominance they did in game 1.

But again, Nashville dominated Corsi – 63.4%. They were able to hold the puck longer than the Penguins, even with 3 fewer power play chances.

But a good portion of their Corsi was missed shots – they missed on 13 chances. You can’t do that and win.

The Penguins had to block 20 shots. Even still, the Predators threw more on Matt Murray than the Penguins did on Pekka Rinne – 38 shots on goal versus 27.

Matt Murray’s ability to hold down the fort versus that onslaught is what helped the Penguins win. He posted a .974 SV%, and that was crucial. Had he posted his .884 from game 1, it would have been a game going to overtime.

Again, Pekka’s performance let the Predators down, but it wasn’t the only thing. He had a .852 SV%, closer to what Murray had in game 1. But that still wasn’t good enough.

The Predators offense, though, was ultimately the disappointment. Whereas in Game 1 they had a 12% shooting rate (12% of their shots went in the net), they couldn’t even crack 3% in game 2.

Game Three

This is the game where the Predators began turning it around. They started capitalizing off of their puck dominance and found holes in Matt Murray they hadn’t before. The offense finally showed up in all three periods in a 2017 Stanley Cup Final game.

The Predators again dominated Corsi and Fenwick. 54% of Corsi and 56% of Fenwick went towards the Pittsburgh net. The Predators had 33 shots on goal. This time, though, it was the Penguins that

This time, though, it was the Penguins that made some mistakes. They had 11 missed shots, which, while Pekka was better in this game, could have made a difference.

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Speaking of Pekka, for the first time in the series, Rinne had an appropriate save percentage at .964.

While the Penguins made 28 shots, only one, to lead off the game, went in. Once the Predators began scoring the Penguins were stopped.

This shows how the Predators reversed their fortunes.

Pekka shaped up at home, and the Predators offense (and defense), already focused, began creating opportunities.

Matt Murray was the weaker goaltender in this one. He stayed within the same range as game one – .848 SV% – but the Penguins offense wasn’t there.

By now, you’ve probably figured out that shooting percentage and save percentage are linked. So, because Murray had a .848 SV%, that means that the Predators offense had over 15% of their shots go in.

The Penguins had a 3% shooting rate. If you can’t get the puck past the goaltender you’re not going to win. And while Pekka was unbeatable, this Penguins team thrives off of offense. That not being there is a death knell in a game for Pittsburgh.

Game Four

The lesson to take away from this series so far: the team that misses the most shots will lose the game. The Penguins missed eighteen.

This game is actually all the more interesting because of it. For the first time in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, the Corsi/Fenwick numbers flip. Because of the eighteen missed shots, the Penguins had 53.3% of Corsi in game 4.

The Predators, however, had 53% of the Fenwick. So the Penguins may have been able to drive the puck better, but if you miss on all of your chances, does that even matter?

Again, Matt Murray was in the 800’s in save percentage, posting a .846. Pekka, on the other hand, posted a .958, including some amazing saves.

The 2017 Stanley Cup Final is really coming down to who’s the better goaltender, but also who drives the puck better. The Penguins have only once had a better Corsi than the Predators. They had some good chances but ultimately failed to capitalize in a spectacular way.

What This Means In Game Five

The Predators took advantage of a weaker goaltender in both of their home games. If that continues, and if the trend of the Predators getting off more shots while having to block fewer continues, this could be over rather soon.

The Penguins need to figure out how to possess the puck and drive it into the opponent’s zone better. They haven’t been successful so far against the Predators defense, but they must find a way.

Matt Murray has to be better. In the 2017 Stanley Cup Final so far, he has a .894 SV%. That’s not been good enough. Especially when it came to the 9-2 thwacking that came the Penguins way in Nashville. Murray showed holes where there shouldn’t be holes.

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Pekka’s not been good enough either. He’s posted a worse .879 SV%. That includes a .769 SV on the road and a .961 at home. So there’s been two versions of Pekka in the 2017 Stanely Cup Final. One deserves the Conn. The other doesn’t.