Vancouver Canucks: Can they sustain their early season success?

Despite dim expectations, the Vancouver Canucks are off to a great start this season. How are they doing it?

Every season, one or two wacky things are bound to happen. An expansion team can make their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Contenders become pretenders and vice versa. One of the biggest surprises this season is the early success of the Vancouver Canucks.

The 2017-18 season cemented the Canucks as a team past its glory years. They couldn’t score, their goaltending tandem was decent at best, and the Sedins retired in a glorious bit of symbolism.

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They had some bright faces for the future, sure, but it appeared it would be a long time before they would get a chance at a Cup again. Although the Canucks aren’t what they were at their peak, things have looked quite different early on. Vancouver is not a basement team.

For a team to escape the dreaded basement, everything needs to change. Then, how much has changed and how have the Canucks done it so rapidly? How much of it through skill and how much through luck?

Part 1: Pettersson and Friends

Firstly, they have gotten a lot younger. Last season, the average team overall age was 28. The Canucks exceeded that at 28.2 For the most part, an aging team is a declining team

The Canucks have shifted the weight of their talent pool onto a younger group, as their average age is now 26.5. With the Sedins gone, the top of the Canucks scoring group looks very different.

Four of the top five point leaders on the team are under 23. Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, and Jake Virtanen can eventually make up a good corps. A team with their eyes on the long-term must be ready to make their core group younger.

But youth doesn’t guarantee a better team. Thus far, Vancouver’s main source of success is their increased goal total. This is the main separation between them and last season’s team.

They scored an embarrassing 218 goals, where the league average was 259, last season. In 18 games, they have scored 59, while the league average is 51. This puts them on a 269 goal pace for the entire season. These points are coming from new sources. Sources that the Canucks didn’t have two years ago. Brock Boeser is on pace for 69 points. This remains consistent with his pace last season.

Pettersson, if you haven’t heard, is lighting up the league. It’s almost certainly not sustainable,  but he is on pace for 120 points if he doesn’t get injured again. Don’t forget Bo Horvat on pace for 73 points. Jake Virtanen recorded 20 points last season. Now, he’s on pace for 41.

The Canucks have incredible young talent, who are turning the team into a goal-scoring powerhouse.

Part 2: The Goalie Situation

Next, it’s time to take a look at the goalie situation. The biggest negative for the team so far has been Jacob Markstrom. Last season, more often than not, he did his part for the team, with a .912 save percentage over the season.

Anders Nilsson struggled last season with only a .901 save percentage. This season, they’ve almost swapped. Markstrom is down at a .898 while Nilsson has risen to a .912.

Because of this, the Canucks have allowed 60 goals so far. If you’re counting, that gives them a -1 goal differential. Markstrom is better than this. He demonstrated that last season. He is the biggest variable in question.

If the Canucks are doing this well with him struggling, imagine how well they could do if he maintained an average save percentage. This should foster optimism among fans.

The difference between a winning Canucks team and a losing one will be his play. If he can get his save percentage back up to where it can be, then this is definitely a playoff team. The scorers are doing their job, and he needs to do his.

Part 3: Advanced Stats

Now, despite all of the goals, a bit of the Canucks’ success is stemming from a luck factor. The Canucks have a 46.4 CorsiFor percentage, which is one of the worst in the league. They are constantly losing the possession battle. However, if they’re getting the most out of the opportunities that they get, then maybe this isn’t so important.

What is a bit worrying, however, is their shooting percentage, which is currently sitting at 11.4 percent. This is probably not sustainable and goals will eventually be harder to come by. However, if they keep their shot total high and Markstrom improves, this might not be that big of a deal.

So, the Canucks are obviously getting lucky on a few fronts, but Markstrom’s save percentage might also be unlucky. Their CorsiFor percentage is worrying, but it might not matter.

Hopefully, this answers the success of the Vancouver Canucks. They’ve been scoring, but their save percentage is also very high. Time will tell if they can continue their winning ways.