NHL free agency: 5 free agents that will be overpaid this offseason
The 2019 NHL free agency market is loaded with All-Stars, but a handful of them stand to get vastly overpaid when July 1st rolls around. Here’s a look at five free agents who will get overpaid.
The San Jose Sharks re-signed Norris Trophy blueliner Erik Karlsson, thus taking the top unrestricted free agent of 2019 off the market. But there are still a handful of All-Star players that round out a stacked NHL free agency class, and it all starts with Russian standout Artemi Panarin.
Panarin won’t come cheap, but the team that lands him will be rewarded. We are talking about a player who has tallied at least 27 goals and over 70 points in each of his first four NHL seasons.
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Though most lucrative free agent contracts turn out to be mistakes, it’s hard to see a world-class talent like Panarin flopping with whichever team he signs with. He’s that much of a franchise-changing player. But just like every other year, a large portion of free agents are going to get massively overpaid in the offseason.
In 2016, Loui Eriksson (six years, $36 million), Andrew Ladd (seven years, $38.5 million), and Milan Lucic (seven years, $42 million) each received contracts that have turned into giant mistakes. Kyle Okposo is another one from 2016.
Meanwhile, in 2017, Kevin Shattenkirk (four years, $26.6 million), Karl Alzner (five years, $23.125 million), and Martin Hanzal (three years, $14.24 million), were among the many free agent signings that became big-time busts. That said, most of last year’s top free agent signings didn’t disappoint in 2018-19, though Jack Johnson (five years, $16.25 million), looks like a bust already.
Well, expect a handful of this year’s top free agents to follow the footsteps of the 2016 and 2017 offseasons. That is, look for a handful of teams to get too aggressive and wind up passing out mega contracts that they’ll end up regretting. Here are five NHL free agents who are about to get overpaid big time.
5. Sergei Bobrovsky
The Columbus Blue Jackets are unlikely to retain goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, and it’s probably the right move. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had plenty of chances to try and guide this team to a Stanley Cup championship, but in seven years with the organization, the Jackets only netted them one playoff series win.
Bobrovsky will enter this offseason as one of the most sought-after goalie free agents in history. You almost never see an All-Star and Vezina winner enter the market, but Bobrovsky is an exception. He promises to earn a mammoth contract once free agency begins, and there’s one team that seems bent on getting Bobrovsky — no matter the price.
TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reported back in February that the Florida Panthers want to “take a run” at both Bobrovsky and Panarin. The latter is a world-class scorer and playmaker. He won’t come with many risks, but Bobrovsky certainly does.
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Most mega contracts for goalies always seem to backfire (Rick DiPietro, Cory Schneider, and Roberto Luongo come to mind). Also, Bobrovsky turns 31 in September, and few goalies in this day and age maintain a high level of play when they push 35.
But the main reason Bobrovsky comes with plenty of risk? The fact that he has been a very poor performer in the postseason. He has a career .902 save percentage and 3.14 goals against average in the playoffs. To put that into perspective, his career regular season .919 save percentage and 2.46 goals against average.
Teams should be wary of paying big dollars to a goalie in his 30s unless he’s a proven winner in big games. Bobrovsky is the complete opposite. You need a goalie who can take you all the way, and Bobrovsky hasn’t been able to show that he’s capable of that. He’s probably going to get around $9 million annually. That’s a steep price for a goalie with a poor playoff record.
4. Anders Lee
New York Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello has already extended two of his top pending UFAs in Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle. Now, he has to figure out what to do with captain Anders Lee.
The 28-year-old filled in nicely as the new leader with John Tavares leaving in free agency last year. Lee scored 28 goals and 51 points, leading the Islanders to a first-round upset against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Thanks to his strong efforts throughout a year, Lee is set up for a big contract. But buyer beware.
Lee figuratively regressed offensively after a career year in which he scored 40 goals and 62 points. That was thanks in large part to a career-best 19.2 shooting percentage. It dropped down by 5.5 percent this year, so Lee predictably fell down to 28 goals and 51 points.
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But Lee, like many Islanders players, was a product of pure puck luck. This season, the Islanders ranked 26th in Corsi For percentage at 47.85%, according to Natural Stat Trick. Lee, per Hockey Reference, had a mere 49.2% Corsi For percentage.
Chances are Lee regresses by a decent margin in 2018-19. He hasn’t had very good puck numbers, and yet he nearly hit 30 goals for a third straight year. Some teams won’t pay any attention to that, and one of them will give Lee too much money.
Also, Lee is 28 years of age. For a guy who’s usually good for around 50 points a season, he’s probably worth no more than $6 to $7 million a season. It would not be a surprise if somebody went over that and gave him over $7 million.
3. Tyler Myers
With Karlsson no longer available, it bodes well for the hulking 6-foot-8, 229-pound Tyler Myers. The Winnipeg Jets standout is among the few legitimate top-four defencemen in this year’s free agent class, so he’ll have no problem attracting many suitors once free agency begins.
Most teams try to build around speed and skill, but even though he doesn’t skate too well, Myers remains an effective blueliner at both ends of the ice. Like Zdeno Chara, he puts his giant frame to good use. Myers has a good reach, can easily knock opponents off the puck, and he’s excellent at moving it through the neutral zone.
Myers should be able to earn a contract worth $7-plus million a season, even though there are plenty of red flags here. Most players get better after their rookie season, but Myers hasn’t come anywhere close to the 48 points he put up in 2009-10. That year, he won the Calder Trophy and helped the Buffalo Sabres win the Northeast Division title.
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The most Myers has put up in a season since his rookie year? 37, and that was in his 2010-11 sophomore campaign. The most he’s put up on a star-studded Winnipeg team is 36, and that was just last season. For a guy who’s widely regarded as an offensive-minded defenceman, Myers doesn’t produce as much as his reputation suggests.
On top of that, Myers really isn’t that strong in his own end of the ice. He owns a poor 48.8% career Corsi For percentage (it was 48.8% this season). He had 32 takeaways against a 63 giveaways this season. In fact, Myers has 526 career giveaways compared to just 284 takeaways. Not exactly inspiring.
Myers is a capable second-pairing blueliner who should make no more than $5 million a season, but somebody is going to make pay him like he’s a perennial All-Star. This isn’t to say that Myers will be a liability with his new team, but his play will not reflect the hefty salary somebody is about to give him.
2. Jake Gardiner
With Karlsson earning a lucrative extension from the Sharks, Jake Gardiner is the best free agent defenceman by default. And now that the two-time Norris Trophy winner is off the market, Gardiner will see his value go way up.
There’s almost no way the cap-strapped Toronto Maple Leafs will be able to afford Gardiner, especially after he became the scapegoat for their last two playoff series defeats at the hands of the Boston Bruins.
No way Toronto can keep Gardiner, who should be able to get a contract worth at least $6 million a season. It’s reasonable to believe he can earn even more than that, perhaps even $7.5 million a year.
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Gardiner isn’t exactly sound defensively and he’s posted a minus-eight rating over the last two postseasons. But teams are going to love his mobility and offensive talents. This is a guy who is only one year removed from a career-best 52-point season.
But teams lining up for Gardiner’s services are likely to ignore the fact that he has only topped 31 points twice in his career. Though he can play top-four minutes, Gardiner isn’t as gifted offensively as you might think. Throw in the fact that he turns 29 next month, and you can see why he’s a risky signing.
Someone is going to pay Gardiner for that 52-point season he had a year ago. They’re not going to worry about his age, frustrating defensive play and the the fact he’s not really that productive on the offensive side of things.
1. Matt Duchene
After Panarin and maybe even Bobrovksy, his Columbus teammates, Matt Duchene may be the most valuable and sought-after free agent in 2019. With top-tier players earning more and more money every year, Duchene will land one of the richest free agent deals in the history of the NHL.
Money is obviously going to talk to Duchene. Back in January, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported that the Ottawa Senators offered Duchene an eight-year deal worth around $64 million. The extension never materialized, and he was sent to Columbus in a deadline blockbuster deal.
The Senators probably dodged a bullet there, and the Blue Jackets will also dodge one if they don’t end up retaining Duchene. Why? Because he’s likely going to get $70 million-plus on the open market, and the 28-year-old simply isn’t worth that much money.
Duchene is a great player, but he’s not in the “elite” or “superstar” categories. He hit the 70-point mark for only the second time of his career. Duchene has only hit the 60-point mark three times in his career, and he only has two 20-goal seasons on his resume.
At best, Duchene is an ideal No. 2 center on a championship contender. But somebody out there is probably going to hand Duchene a contract in the neighborhood of the $76 million deal Nikita Kucherov received from the Tampa Bay Lightning last year.
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And with Duchene entering his age 28-29 season, it’s already safe to wonder how many prime years he has left. Duchene relies on his lightning-quick speed, and once he begins to lose a step or two, his production will decline immensely. But it won’t stop somebody from giving him franchise-changing superstar money when free agency begins.