NHL free agency: Projecting contracts for the top 5 restricted free agents

Most of the top restricted free agents in NHL free agency have yet to sign a contract. But with the regular season approaching, they should finalize deals soon. Here’s what the top five RFAs could sign for.

It’s hard to believe it’s been nearly two months since NHL free agency started. Yet so many impact players, namely Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Jake Gardiner have yet to find new homes.

But even more surprising is there are so many prominent restricted free agents who have yet to sign an offer sheet or a contract with their current clubs. This includes Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner, who’s coming off a 94 point season.

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On top of that, the Winnipeg Jets have yet to extend Finnish star Patrik Laine, who’s coming off the third consecutive 30 goal season of his career. It’s amazing that a world-class goal scorer like Laine hasn’t even been the subject of an offer sheet up to this point.

Speaking of Jets stars, Kyle Connor is also awaiting a new contract. Coming off his second straight 30-goal season, the 22-year-old Connor is in line for a fancy payday. It’s just a matter of when the Jets figure out a new deal for him.

Then you look at a couple of other players who surpassed the 80-point mark last season – Mikko Rantanen and Brayden Point. And then you have sniper Brock Boeser and rising star blueliners like Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo.

At some point, all of these young stars will sign new contracts and it’s safe to believe that they’ll wind up staying with their respective teams. The real question is how much they’ll sign for, and what the term will be. Let’s play the fun game and guess the contracts for the top five NHL RFAs.

5. Brock Boeser

Fortunately for the Vancouver Canucks, Boeser isn’t eligible for an offer sheet, so general manager Jim Benning has been able to take his time in contract negotiations with the 22-year-old star.

It’s a tricky situation with Boeser here. Do the Canucks pay him for what he’s done or pay him for what they think he’s going to do? He scored 29 goals and 55 points in his rookie 2017-18 season despite missing 20 games. This past season, he scored 26 goals and 56 points in 69 games.

Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province recently reported that Ben Hankinson, Boeser’s agent, wants a four-year deal worth $7 million per season. That’s reasonable for a top-line forward that’s only entering his prime, but there’s just one issue.

The Canucks are up against the cap following a giant offseason spending spree, so Benning might have to move out one of his veteran forwards in order to fit in Boeser’s new contract. Ideally, he’d find a way to move out an expensive veteran like Brandon Sutter or Loui Eriksson.

Boeser and the Canucks should be able to get a deal done well before the start of the regular season. It won’t be a bridge deal, nor a long-term pact. But when all is said and done, they’ll get close to Hankinson’s asking price.

Prediction: Four years, $25.5 million

4. Mikko Rantanen

The Colorado Avalanche are playing a dangerous game, with general manager Joe Sakic recently stating that contract negotiations with Rantanen won’t pick up again until closer to training camp.

While Rantanen awaits further contract discussions, he’s taken it upon himself to head overseas and practice in Norway. Obviously, Rantanen and the Avalanche are fine delaying contract talks, but this doesn’t mean that they’re on the verge of reaching a deal.

The Avalanche still have over $15.615 million in cap space, per CapFriendly. Sakic has plenty of room to work with, and he shouldn’t be the least bit nervous about giving Rantanen the superstar money that he’s worth.

After breaking out with 20 goals in the 2016-17 season, Rantanen has taken his game to another level, surpassing the 80-point mark in each of the last two years. He’s also only 22 years of age, so perhaps Rantanen hasn’t even hit his full prime yet. With Nathan MacKinnon anchoring the top line, Rantanen should be a consistent 80-point player for years to come.

The Avalanche might try to settle on a bridge deal with Rantanen, but it’d be easier for everybody if a long-term deal was the ultimate resolution. It could take a few more weeks to finalize, but when all is said and done, expect Rantanen to earn the big money that he’s more than deserving of. No bridge deal nor hometown discount.

Prediction: 8 years, $85 million

2. Patrik Laine

It’s hard to believe that one of the game’s flashiest goal-scorers and purest snipers remains unsigned nearly two months into free agency. The Winnipeg Jets have taken a calculated risk by leaving Laine unsigned this long, and it’s also a surprise that the Finnish star hasn’t been the target of an offer sheet yet.

Complicating matters is the fact that teammate Kyle Connor is also an RFA, and he’s in line for a huge raise after scoring 34 goals and 66 points last year. The Jets only have about $17.592 million in cap space to work with, per CapFriendly.

This past season was considered a “down” year for Laine, even though he tallied 30 goals and 50 points. He posted 44-26-70 the year prior and 36-28-64 the year prior. Perhaps Laine’s frustrating 2018-19 season is why the Jets have been hesitant in meeting his contract demands.

Laine said in a recent interview with Sportsnet that in this business, you have “to be be prepared for anything,” while adding he has “nothing bad to say about Winnipeg.” Those last few words alone should calm the nerves of Jets fans.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has proven to be a smart negotiator, getting the likes of Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Connor Hellebuyck to sign team-friendly deals. There’s little reason to believe he won’t end up doing so with Laine.

The Jets and Laine might decide to hold off on the eight-year max term deal another day, so look for them to find a happy medium between a bridge deal and a long-term pact.

Prediction: Four years, $34 million

1. Mitch Marner

You can’t blame Marner for staying patient during the whole RFA process. He’s coming off the best season of his career (26 goals and 94 points), and he was unquestionably Toronto’s most productive player during their first-round series against the Boston Bruins.

Marner may never score 94 points again, so it makes perfect sense for him to max out while he can. The Maple Leafs know that Marner wants to be paid what he’s worth, but their difficult salary cap situation has made negotiations extremely difficult.

Toronto gave Auston Matthews a five-year contract worth $58 million during the 2018-19 season, and Marner is probably hoping for a similar term. Hard to envision the latter willingly taking less on an annual basis than Matthews.

But at the end of the day, it’s hard to envision Marner wanting to leave Toronto even if he could possibly land more money elsewhere. If an offer sheet ever comes, general manager Kyle Dubas will have to match it. He doesn’t have a choice.

When all is said and done, the Maple Leafs and Marner will be able to find a middle ground and agree to a multi-year deal. The latter will take a slight pay cut and set himself up nicely for an even bigger contract down the road.

Prediction: Five years, $50 million