NHL Expansion Draft: Carolina Hurricanes Protection Strategy
The latest edition of our round-up of individual teams expansion strategies, the Carolina Hurricanes are preparing for an NHL expansion draft with too many goalies. Who else can they protect?
The Carolina Hurricanes recently signed Scott Darling to a 4-year 16.6 million dollar contract. So he’s not leaving in this NHL expansion draft. Who might, though, for this young Carolina Hurricanes team? Is one of their goalies the one being sent to Vegas?
Or will it be one of Carolina’s young defenseman? By the way, is Sebastian Aho ineligible? All these questions are answered just down below.
Carolina Forwards
The obvious answer to Carolina’s NHL expansion draft predicament is to go with whoever scored the most goals and points. For the Hurricanes, that would be Jeff Skinner. By the way, surprisingly (at least to me), Jeff Skinner is just 24. There’s absolutely no way he’ll be out the door.
Victor Rask is next on the list, posting 45 points, also just 24 years of age. This is a young team. Rask is also signed forever to a decent deal, so he was never going anywhere in the first place. Jordan Staal put up the exact same numbers as Rask, and will also be safe (Staal also has an NMC).
So that’s three forwards all protected in the NHL expansion draft. The Hurricanes only have three more forwards who meet the minimum requirements. That means that they’ll have to choose carefully between Lee Stempniak, Elias Lindholm, and Joakim Nordstrom.
Lindholm, 22, also put up 45 points for the Hurricanes. Stempniak, 34, put up 40. And Nordstrom, 25, posted only 12. So obviously Nordstrom is out. Do the Hurricanes stick with a very young player in Lindholm, or go with one of their very few veteran guys with Stempniak. Man, I wish Carolina didn’t have to face this decision.
Wait. Nevermind. It’s easy. The Hurricanes are a very young team for a reason, stick with the guy who isn’t over the 30 hill and posted five more points in ten fewer games. Simple.
Restricted Free Agents
That means that Carolina will be required to either sign more guys before the NHL expansion draft (they will) or protect restricted free agents (something they will also likely do). Among these will likely be Teuvo Teravainen, a former Blackhawk who, at 22, already has a Stanley Cup and posted 42 points.
That leaves just four restricted free agents, of which the Hurricanes may select two. Those five are Andrej Nestrasil, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, and Erik Karlsson (the other one). Weird that there’s two Erik Karlsson’s in this league, and also unfortunate for the one in Carolina.
Of these four, McGinn had the most points with 16 in 57 games. That means he’ll likely get protected, as nobody else is on the official Carolina stat sheet. But some of these guys did play games with the Hurricanes.
Nestrasil put up 5 points, including one goal, in 19 games. Di Giuseppe put up 7 in 36 following a 17 point performance in 41 games last year. So out of these two, I would be more inclined to lean with Di Giuseppe, who is two years younger and has shown more potential. The Hurricanes also seem to have more faith in him.
I forgot about the forward Erik Karlsson. To be fair, I think a lot of Canes fans do too until they remember “oh crap, we have the other one”. Karlsson has never played with the Hurricanes and scored only 7 points (zero goals) in 42 games with the AHL team.
Hurricanes Defensemen
Justin Faulk is safe. Let’s get that out of the way. Faulk is the best defenseman in Carolina, has been for a while, and will likely continue to be for some time. Noah Hanifin is developing nicely, but the 25-year-old Faulk is still ahead. For proof, Faulk posted eight more points in six fewer games.
That means, as the Carolina Hurricanes only have two defensemen meeting the minimum requirements, that Klas Dahlbeck must be exposed. Which means that either the Carolina Hurricanes are going to have to sign more defencemen before the NHL expansion draft or protect restricted free agents again.
By the way, of the defensemen outside of Faulk and the ineligible youngsters, Dahlbeck had the most points and the second-most games played. The guy with more games played, Matt Tennyson, is an unrestricted free agent. Dahlbeck might be worth protecting. So get on signing guys.
Which leaves the Hurricanes with two restricted free agents. Trevor Carrick, who hasn’t yet played for the Hurricanes, and Ryan Murphy, who played 27 games with the Hurricanes this season and posted two points, both assists. Sign both, but protect Murphy.
The Hurricanes will have to re-sign Tennyson, but he posted six points in 45 games and is just 27. He might be worth keeping around.
Goaltenders & Exempt Players
The goaltender situation is clearer now Darling has signed. He instantly became the guy the Hurricanes would protect, even without an NMC. Darling doesn’t become an unrestricted free agent until 2021, and both Eddie Lack and Cam Ward become immediately expendable.
It’s a situation that’s going to need to be sorted out. Which one of these guys becomes the Hurricanes backup, and which one has to move on? Can either of them even actually move on? Their contracts are both over 2.5 million. That’s expensive for a backup goaltender with as low statistics as they have.
Ultimately, I think Cam Ward will become the Hurricanes backup. There’s too much history there.
The exempt players on the Hurricanes are bountiful. Youth movements tend to work out that way. The names that stick out: Sebastian Aho, Jake Bean, Brett Pesce, Derek Ryan, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Jaccob Slavin, Jake Chelios, and Callum Booth.
A couple things. One, yes, that is Chris Chelios‘s son. Two, Derek Ryan is 30 years old. He’s an unrestricted free agent this year, but at least the Hurricanes don’t have to protect him. He might be the oldest player exempt because of lack of professional seasons. Ryan’s actually only played one. The Hurricanes blue line is going to be together for a while because they haven’t been around too long.
Next: Expansion Draft: Coyotes Plans
Vegas’s Choice
Because Vegas will have to spend money, and because they’re able to draft ten restricted free agents elsewhere, I’m going to suggest something crazy. What if, the Vegas Golden Knights, who have already signed a 30-year-old first line center, keep going old. Take Lee Stempniak, whose name has started to filter around the league, and who scored 40 points at 34 years old.
The Vegas Golden Knights are going to need consistent point scorers, and Stempniak has efficiently proved that he is able to do it even past 30. Stempniak is the best choice here, not only because of his abilities and his relatively low price, but there’s not a lot else. Unless you want a backup goaltender who costs 2.75 million and posted a save percentage around eight hundred.