NHL Expansion Draft: Florida Panthers Protection Strategy

A part of a currently running Puck Prose series. In the NHL Expansion Draft, who are the Florida Panthers going to protect? Of course, Aaron Ekblad is on the list. But who else joins him?

The Florida Panthers are a young team fully capable of winning their division, so long as they have a proper coach in place. They proved it last year, then weirdly fired their head coach Gerard Gallant. But back to the NHL Expansion Draft. Who are the Panthers bound to protect?

F Is For Forwards But Also Florida

List of Available Forwards: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Nobody on this team has an NMC.

Guaranteed: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Marchessault.

Jonathan Huberdeau scored 26 points in just 31 games in the 2016-17 season. Last season, he scored 59 in 76. While he can’t seem to stay healthy, only playing a full season his rookie year (lockout-shortened at that), he’s doing really well. In that rookie year, he scored 31 points and got Rookie of the Year. He has a .65 career point-per-game pace. He’s staying.

Aleksander Barkov is another Florida Panther who can’t seem to stay healthy. In the 2016-17 season, he played only 61 games but still came in second in scoring for the Panthers. And that’s why he’s safe from the NHL expansion draft. He’s got a .68 point-per-game pace. He came in second place for the Byng trophy last year. The Panthers have to keep their individual award finalists.

Trocheck stayed healthy and was the Florida Panthers’ representative at the NHL All-Star Game last year. He also led the team in points with 54 in 82 and has a career .60 point-per-game pace for the Panthers. The Panthers have a lot of really good young forwards, and Trocheck is another one. He’s 23 years old and doesn’t become a free agent until 2022. The Panthers would be insane to expose him in the NHL expansion draft.

Jonathan Marchessault, on a 750,000 contract, led the team in goals last season, scoring 30. That’s worthy of a first round pick in this year’s NHL entry draft and is certainly worth protection in the NHL expansion draft. It was Marchessault’s first full season, and it was the first season where he wasn’t playing bottom six minutes. It’s worth the risk to see if he can do it again.

Highly Likely: Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith

Both of these guys are young. Bjugstad had a rough year after an injury took him out of the beginning of the season, posting only 14 points in 54 games. But in prior seasons, he had totals of 38, 43, and 34 points. Those aren’t bad numbers for a second-line center. Plus, he’s 24. Reilly Smith is only 25 and has a history of putting up 50-point seasons under consistent coaching. There’s a reason everybody had a down season at the same time.

Maybe: Colton Sceviour

Sceviour is a young center who spent time alternating lines between the fourth and being in the top six. He spent a good portion of his season playing with Reilly Smith and Vincent Trocheck and even spent time on the power play. Still, he only delivered 24 points. But again, down year across the board, and if that’s Sceviour’s baseline he’s something special going forward for the Panthers.

There’s a case to be made for Jussi Jokinen, but he’s a 34-year-old forward who costs 4,000,000 and is a free agent next season. There is a better chance Vegas doesn’t take him in the NHL expansion draft and he returns than Sceviour.

P is for Predators Because Predators Means Defense but also for Panthers

That’s a fun game. Anyway, here’s a list of Panthers defenseman up in the NHL expansion draft: Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, Jason Demers, MacKenzie Weegar, Mark Pysyk, Alex Petrovic, Reece Scarlett

NMC: Keith Yandle

Yandle is 30 years old, but he had the most points out of any Panthers defenseman and it wasn’t close. His 41 points in 82 games match his career .50 point-per-game pace. He had 36 assists, which led the team. He drove possession, posting a 50.7 Corsi%. Yandle’s fine to stay away from the NHL expansion draft.

Guaranteed: Aaron Ekblad

Ekblad is a 21-year-old defenseman who won Rookie of the Year two years ago and was a top 20 Norris finisher last year. Do I have to say more or… I mean, Ekblad played only 68 games last season and has a history of concussions. But he’s still the best defenseman under the age of 25 in the National Hockey League. Yes, I checked the age of Erik Karlsson for that last statement, why do you ask? (As of the writing of this post, he’s four days away from 27. Happy Birthday Erik!)

Maybe: Alex Petrovic

This comes down to personal preference: Mark Pysyk or Alex Petrovic. They’re both 25, had nearly identical Corsi numbers, and actually played together for a lot of the last season. Pysyk had 17 points in 82 games, while Petrovic had 14 in 49. That’s what it comes down to for me. Petrovic had nearly as many points (in fact the same number of assists, 13) in about half the games.

There’s Not Another Florida Panthers Initial So Goaltending and Exempt List

Goaltending comes down to James Reimer versus Roberto Luongo. Reimer technically played in more games last season but played only five more minutes. Still, he allowed six fewer goals, had better stats and is nine years younger.

So I’m inclined towards Reimer. He’s also cheaper and becomes a free agent only a year before Roberto does. Plus, Roberto becomes a free agent when he’s 43 years old. Reimer becomes one when he’s 33. Which one is more likely to sign another contract?

Which leaves just the exempt list: Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Kyle Rau, Ian McCoshen

Next: Sabres Sign KHL All-Star

Vegas’s Choice

Players Exposed: Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black, Jason Demers, MacKenzie Weegar, Mark Pysyk, Reece Scarlett, Roberto Luongo

This, for me, comes down to two players: Mark Pysyk and Roberto Luongo. And it depends what the Panthers want out of the NHL expansion draft. Do they want a young defenseman capable of playing good defensive hockey who could hopefully develop into a top-4 guy? Or do they want an experienced starting goaltender who is signed to a long-term contract?

The Golden Knights should want the latter. There will be plenty of defensemen for the Golden Knights to take, but not a lot of starting quality netminders who are proven. Still, I believe it’s hard to overlook Luongo’s age, and Pysyk doesn’t have the same issue. Golden Knights select Mark Pysyk.