Winnipeg Jets: Mathieu Perreault is NHL’s best fourth line forward
Winnipeg Jets forward Mathieu Perreault is the best-kept secret in the NHL.
The Winnipeg Jets are a team on the rise. Entering this season, many thought this would be the season everything started to fall into place for them. And so far, the Jets are exceeding those lofty expectations. Though their defense (most notably Connor Hellebuyck) deserves credit, Winnipeg has lived and died through their offense, which ranks third in goals scored as of December 13.
A large part of this has been their forward depth. The Jets have eight forwards in double digits as far as points. Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers each have at least 20 points. In terms of points per game, Wheeler (1.22) and Scheifele (1.12) are the team leaders. But guess who’s third? Mathieu Perreault. In 19 games this season, he has 18 points.
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Perreault is a great example of the Jets’ outstanding forward depth. He should be playing higher in the lineup because he’s proven he’s productive when he plays. Perreault has at least 40 points in each of his past four seasons despite averaging at most 16:33 per game. In 2017-18, he’s averaging 12:33 per game.
A New Fourth Line
For all intents and purposes, Perreault is a fourth liner. 13 minutes is roughly the cutoff point for a fourth line forward. His 0.94 points per game are by far the highest of any forward who plays fewer than 13 minutes per game (minimum 15 games played).
It would be negligent if Perreault’s ridiculous 28.2 percent individual shooting percentage wasn’t brought up. That will most likely go down. But even when Perreault isn’t scoring, he’s driving possession at a very impressive rate. CF percentage stands for Corsi For percentage. xGF percentage stands for expected goals for percentage.
That position rank, by the way, is out of 409 forwards. Perreault is in at least the 90th percentile in three of those four categories. And he’s in the 85th percentile in xGF percentage relative.
Credit the Jets for stumbling upon a market inefficiency. The tradition used to be having two scoring lines, a shutdown line, and a checking line. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins have won two consecutive Stanley Cups by having three scoring lines (one basically serving as a shutdown line) and a checking line.
Now the Jets are taking it a step forward, attempting to put together four scoring lines. So far, they have three. Ironically, their third forward line doesn’t do much scoring. But the Jets’ third line is quite capable defensively and make things a lot easier for everyone else. So they’re at least bringing something positive to the table.
Having four lines capable of scoring is extremely hard to match up against. Most teams are built to take on two or three at most. The Jets are good enough defensively to make it work. And Hellebuyck has been good enough to mask Winnipeg’s defensive flaws.
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Can Perreault sustain this production? Probably not. But if the Jets can continue to have a fourth line that can chip in goals, play solid defensively, and tilt the ice in their favor, they’re going to be very hard to beat in the postseason. The Jets might have accidentally discovered the idea of four scoring lines, but now they’re profiting off it. If Winnipeg continues to have success, expect to see the league’s current shift to skill happen even quicker.