A New CBA Will Not Solve Anything For The NHL
Nov 1, 2012; San Diego CA, USA; Fans of the NHL and the San Diego Chargers hold a sign that reads “Lock out has got us down so we
As we sit here on day 75 of the lockout, it’s hard not to wonder how we got to this point. With the NHL coming off a season of record revenues of $3.3 billion, how could the league and players possibly be at a point where they have missed nearly two months of the regular season with no end in sight?
Forbes recently released their annual NHL team values and it got me thinking about how healthy the league actually is. Let me preface this by saying that the Forbes numbers are only estimates and some consider them to be utterly useless. Tyler Dellow at mc79hockey does a nice job in a post he wrote recently describing some issues with the numbers and why we should not take them as 100% accurate. Saying that, I thought it would be interesting to take a deeper look at their numbers, specifically the revenue numbers for each team.
The table below gives each team’s revenue in millions of dollars as estimated by Forbes for each season since the last lockout (I could not find the revenue numbers for the year prior to the lockout). The final column gives the percentage revenue change from the first year after the lockout to this past season.
Team Name |
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
Revenue Change
New Jersey Devils
122
100
104
97
97
65
62
96.8%
Pittsburgh Penguins
120
110
91
93
87
67
63
90.5%
Montreal Canadiens
169
165
163
130
139
109
90
87.8%
Chicago Blackhawks
125
118
120
108
79
69
67
86.6%
New York Rangers
199
169
154
139
137
122
109
82.6%
Vancouver Canucks
143
146
119
109
107
96
80
78.8%
Calgary Flames
117
105
98
95
97
77
68
72.1%
Washington Capitals
106
94
82
83
73
66
63
68.3%
Toronto Maple Leafs
200
193
187
168
160
138
119
68.1%
Winnipeg Jets
105
71
71
68
70
67
64
64.1%
Boston Bruins
129
125
110
108
97
87
86
50.0%
Ottawa Senators
113
100
96
90
96
93
76
48.7%
San Jose Sharks
101
96
88
84
85
72
69
46.4%
Los Angeles Kings
120
101
98
92
91
84
82
46.3%
Nashville Predators
88
82
74
71
70
65
61
44.3%
Detroit Red Wings
128
127
119
130
110
109
89
43.8%
Edmonton Oilers
106
96
87
83
85
71
75
41.3%
Philadelphia Flyers
124
111
121
101
102
87
88
40.9%
Minnesota Wild
99
97
92
95
94
78
71
39.4%
Buffalo Sabres
95
87
81
79
76
74
70
35.7%
St Louis Blues
89
78
79
80
73
66
66
34.8%
Florida Panthers
87
81
76
74
74
67
65
33.8%
Phoenix Coyotes
83
70
67
66
68
67
63
31.7%
Columbus Blue Jackets
85
80
76
77
71
68
66
28.8%
Anaheim Ducks
91
84
85
94
90
89
75
21.3%
Carolina Hurricanes
85
81
75
82
75
68
72
18.1%
New York Islanders
66
63
63
62
64
60
56
17.9%
Dallas Stars
100
90
95
97
105
91
89
12.4%
Colorado Avalanche
91
83
82
84
91
79
81
12.3%
Tampa Bay Lightning
88
87
76
80
84
85
82
7.3%
***All Revenue Numbers From Forbes.com***
The revenue change is very interesting. The league as a whole has increased revenue from approximately $2.1 billion in 2005-06 to $3.3 billion this past season. That is a 57.1% increase in revenue. If you examine the table, only 10 teams have experienced a revenue increase at or greater than that amount from the 2005-06 season. One of those teams being the Winnipeg Jets who were clearly buoyed by the move from Atlanta to Winnipeg.
Think about this for a second, the salary cap was $39 million in the first season after the lockout with a salary floor of $23 million. Those values sky rocketed to $64.3 million and $48.3 million respectively last season. The floor more than doubled in only six seasons!
Based on what is being reported on the negotiations between the owners and the players, it looks like the main change to the new CBA will be a reduction in the player’s share of hockey related revenue from 57% last season to 50% at some point in the next few years. Given the economics of the NHL, this will not do anything to help resolve the issues with the struggling franchises. Although teams will be paying out a smaller share of revenue to the players to start, teams like the Maple Leafs and the Rangers will continue to grow revenues and drive the salary cap and floor higher, while teams like the Lightning and Blue Jackets will only see minimal growth and in some years revenue regression.
Given what we know about the negotiations between the NHL and NHLPA the league continues to ignore the fact that revenue growth in the league is being driven by the high revenue teams. I realize that this is a very simplistic way of looking at things, but it is obvious that a majority of teams in the NHL cannot keep up with the overall revenue growth of the league. Bettman’s failure to accept this fact will only lead us to another lockout in five or six years when this new CBA expires and the majority of the leagues owners continue to cry poor.
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