IIHF U-20 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship
Last week I wrote about Canada’s World Junior team and the potential of players becoming stars at the NHL level based on past results. In a nutshell, I analyzed every player on Team Canada’s roster from tournaments taking place between 1990 and 2005. More than half the players (55.4%) played more than 500 games, which is a good proxy for a regular NHL player. However, only 8.2% became star players.
This year is unique, as with the NHL lockout there are a number of players who were expected to be in the NHL this season. This situation occurred for both the 1995 and 2005 tournaments. The 1995 team did not produce any “Star” players, but had eight “Good” players and another five players that played over 500 games. The 2005 team is regarded as the best World Junior team of all time. That team had five “Star” players, seven “Good” players and one more player who played over 500 games. There is no telling what this team will produce, but that is part of what I am trying to do here. I have ranked each player on this year’s Team Canada based on their prospects for future NHL success giving them a projected rating based on the same system:
| Rating | Criteria |
100 |
Star, Top 3F, Top 2D, Elite Starting Goalie
75
Good Player, Top 6F, Top 4D, Starting Goalie Multiple Years
50
Good Role Player, 500+ Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie > 300 starts
25
Role Player, 200-499 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 100-299 starts
10
Depth Player, 51-199 Games in NHL for F and D, Goalie 50 – 100 starts
5
Minor Leaguer, 1-50 NHL games, Goalie < 50 starts
0
Busts, Zero NHL games
As the title indicates, this is my pre-tournament assessment. I plan on reviewing this assessment after the tournament to see if it has any influence on my projections.
Name |
Pos
NHL Team
Rating
Notes
Ryan Nugent Hopkins
F
EDM
100
RNH proved in his rookie NHL season that he was a top end NHL talent
Nathan MacKinnon
F
Eligible 2013
100
Potential 1st overall pick in 2013 draft. All indiciations are he will be a star in the NHL
Jonathan Huberdeau
F
FLA
100
High end offensive talent, will be in a Panthers uniform if lockout ends
Ryan Strome
F
NYI
75
Dominating OHL this year,I think he projects as a second line center in NHL, not a “Star”
Dougie Hamilton
D
BOS
75
Big, mobile defenseman, not sure he ever produces enough offense to be a “Star” in NHL
Morgan Rielly
D
TOR
75
Elite offensive skills, projects as a power play quarterback, questions about his defensive game
Griffin Reinhart
D
NYI
75
Big defenseman, good all around game, should project as a top 4 for majority of his career
Jonathan Drouin
F
Eligible 2013
75
Projected top 5 pick in this years draft, question whether he is explosive enough to be a “Star”
Boone Jenner
F
CBJ
50
Having great year in OHL, but projects as a third line player at next level
Mark Scheifele
F
WPG
50
Was overmatched in NHL last year, I think he projects more as a bottom six guy over his career
Scott Harrington
D
PIT
50
Will play in the NHL, question whether he will be a top 4 guy for majority of his career
Brett Ritchie
F
DAL
50
Big, physical winger, will find a niche in the NHL, question whether he can produce offense consistently
Phillip Danault
F
CHI
50
Likely a role player at the NHL Level
Xavier Oullet
D
DET
50
Potentially a top 4 guy, just not sure he’ll be that consistently at NHL level
Malcolm Subban
G
BOS
50
First round pick last year, many believe he will be a star, with a goalie it’s too early for me to tell
Charles Hudon
F
MTL
0-25
Depth player, question whether he can take his game to the next level
Ryan Murphy
D
CAR
0-25
Tons of skill, but I question whether he can be a consistent NHL player.
Tyler Wotherspoon
D
CGY
0-25
Lacks mobility to be a conistent pro at NHL level
Anthony Camara
F
BOS
0-25
Camara only put up 0.5 pts/gm the season after his draft year, most likely a depth player
J.C. Lipon
F
Undrafted
0-25
Went undrafted in first year of eligibility, he should hear his name called this year.
Ty Rattie
F
STL
0-25
He’ll either be a top 6 forward or a fringe player; he might be a guy that changes my mind after this tournament
Jordan Binnington
G
STL
0-25
Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson
Jake Paterson
G
DET
0-25
Like Subban, goalies are tough to predict, I will err on the side of caution with both Binnington and Paterson
After reviewing my assessment I noticed that the breakdown of players by rating category is very similar to the averages for a typical Team Canada. So it’s pretty clear that I do not think this team will come close to the team that brought home the gold in 2005, but that does not mean they can’t win this tournament.
Rating |
Players
Precentage
100
3
13.0%
75
5
21.7%
50
7
30.4%
0-25
8
34.8%
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