10 Most Undervalued Players in Fantasy Hockey
It’s almost time to kick off the fantasy hockey season. As most of us prepare for our drafts by seeking out every expert mock-draft and projection we can find, we often overlook many of what makes a fantasy hockey team successful.
Nearly any hockey fan can select a Sidney Crosby or Steven Stamkos in the first round. Most of us are smart enough to know that Erik Karlsson is by far the most productive defenseman or that Henrik Lundqvist or Carey Price will play a lot and provide excellent goaltending statistics.
The mistake even the most knowledgeable hockey fan makes during a fantasy draft is over-thinking in the later rounds. Too often we get seduced by the highly touted rookie who will usually be a boy playing among men, or the injury-prone forward who has superstar potential if he would just stay healthy, only to be disappointed and left looking upward from our position in the standings.
This season, I propose a different late-round strategy. There are several well-established players who can provide good value outside the first few rounds. They have proven to be consistent, productive and all have a certain upside as well. For various reasons, many of these players are not “sexy” picks and thus fall farther down the draft board than they should.
If you can snag a few of these players, you’d be complementing your star players with a good amount of depth and still retain some of the upside needed to win your fantasy hockey league.
Here are my top 10 most undervalued players in fantasy hockey for the 2014-15 season.
May 5, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (29) makes a save against the New York Rangers during the first period of game three of the second round of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
10. Marc-Andre Fleury, Goaltender, Pittsburgh Penguins
Due to both personal and team struggles in the playoffs, Fleury’s reputation among fans and media alike has taken quite a hit. Many don’t even consider him a top-10 goaltender in the NHL anymore.
The reality is, from a fantasy perspective in the regular season he’s one of the most productive players in the NHL.
Without anybody on the team or in Pittsburgh’s system threatening his number one status, you can pretty much count on him getting 60-65 starts a season. He’s also very durable, failing to play at a 65-70 game pace just once in eight years.
With the team the Penguins put in front of him, that likely means between 35-40 wins, a feat he’s accomplished in six out of his last eight seasons (he won 23 of 33 in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season).
He won’t provide elite numbers in save percentage, but falling between .913 and .918 in the last four seasons is good enough not to hurt your team. His goals-against average has been 2.39 or lower in each of those four seasons and he’s posted three or more shutouts three times during that span as well.
He may not be good enough to win the Penguins a Stanley Cup, but he can certainly backstop a team to fantasy hockey glory. After the elite goaltenders are off the board, don’t hesitate to make Fleury your number one fantasy hockey goaltender.
Apr 13, 2014; Buffalo, NY, USA; New York Islanders center Frans Nielsen (51) waits for the official to drop the puck for a face-off against the Buffalo Sabres at First Niagara Center. Islanders beat Buffalo 4 to 3 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
9. Frans Nielsen, Centre, New York Islanders
When it comes to the Islanders, most will focus their attention to superstar John Tavares or his wingman Kyle Okposo. While that attention is certainly warranted, it often causes people to overlook the value that Frans Nielsen could provide in the later rounds.
Nielsen is a very versatile player for the Islanders, logging top unit minutes on both the penalty kill and powerplay. If your league counts special teams goals or points, that’s excellent news considering he averaged over two minutes on the PK and over three minutes with the man advantage, where he produced 20 points, the second-highest total on the team (Tavares, 25).
He also ranked third on the team by a wide margin with 58 points, outscoring players likely drafted ahead of him like Jeff Carter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Scott Hartnell.
Nielsen is also quite durable, missing just two games in the last three years.
With a stronger supporting cast, he should be able to provide you with at least similar, if not better value than last season. He would be an especially astute pick-up for any Tavares owners as he would likely get first line minutes in the event of another injury to the Isles’ franchise player.
Apr 11, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Alex Goligoski (33) skates against the St. Louis Blues during the game during the third period at the American Airlines Center. Goligoski scores a goal in the game. The Stars shut out the Blues 3-0 and clinched the final playoff spot in the western conference. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
8. Alex Goligoski, Defenseman, Dallas Stars
With Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza in “Big D”, there will be no shortage of fantasy options when drafting Stars players.
Most however will overlook Alex Goligoski, the quarterback of the team’s powerplay. With a more potent attack, the Stars should improve on their 15.4% from last season and that could mean more than 42 points from Goligoski.
Still, even if he equals that number, it makes him a solid number two fantasy defenseman. Most will draft him as a third or fourth. Considering that he outscored Zdeno Chara and Drew Doughty last season, that’s pretty incredible.
This is a prime example of why you should draft for production, not actually player quality in fantasy hockey. No one in their right mind would dispute that Chara and Doughty are far better players than Goligoski, but you should also let those who think highly of them draft them, and reap the benefits of having your number two defenseman outscore their number one.
Expect a similar 40-45 point output this year, with the potential for 50+.
Mar 17, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Jason Garrison (5) shoots against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
7. Jason Garrison, Defenseman, Tampa Bay Lightning
One of the main reasons the Lightning look better this season is the acquisition of Jason Garrison.
In 2011-12, he was a big reason the Florida Panthers’ powerplay was a top-10 unit in the NHL. He scored 16 goals, 9 of which came with the man advantage.
While he’s not a big point-producer from the back-end, if your league emphasizes goalscoring, you would do well to pick him up after all the top offensive defensemen are off the board.
He’ll certainly get a chance to use his big point shot, and the focus of the opposition on Steven Stamkos will give him more openings to do so.
Finally playing on a contending team should also help improve his numbers in other areas as well, like point totals and +/-.
Expect at least 10 goals, 35 points and a positive +/-. If the Tampa powerplay clicks however, the potential for 15+ goals is certainly there.
Apr 1, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Valtteri Filppula (51) shoots the puck against the Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Griffith-USA TODAY Sports
6. Valtteri Filppula, Centre, Tampa Bay Lightning
Another member of the Lightning never seems to get the respect he deserves. Valtteri Filppula had an excellent first season in Tampa last year, scoring 25 goals and 58 points.
Playing most of the season between Teddy Purcell and Alex Killorn, Filppula managed to finish third on the team in points and fell one second shy of playing 20 minutes per game.
The versatile, two-way forward honed his game behind Pavel Datsyuk in Detroit, and it shows. While he’s not quite at an MVP-level like his mentor, Filppula certainly has the hands, skating ability and defensive awareness to be considered a “poor man’s Datsyuk”.
That means he gets tons of quality ice-time on both the penalty kill and powerplay, where he produced 20 points last season.
With Martin St. Louis gone, the Lightning will rely on Filppula more to produce points. That could translate into a career year and possibly a fantasy championship if you draft him.
Expect 25+ goals and 65+ points.
Mar 27, 2014; Newark, NJ, USA; Phoenix Coyotes goalie Thomas Greiss (1) makes a save on New Jersey Devils left wing Patrik Elias (26) to win the shootout at Prudential Center. The Coyotes defeated the Devils 3-2 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
5. Patrik Elias, Left Wing, New Jersey Devils
Many fantasy hockey general managers look at the fact that he’s 38 years old and playing for a Devils team that has no real elite offensive talent to speak of and pass on Patrik Elias.
The reality is that he’s scored 0.75 points-per-game or better in 12 of his last 14 seasons, including each of his last six.
While he’s no longer the player who scored 40 goals and 96 points in 2000-01, he came close to a point-per-game just two seasons ago (78 points in 81 games). He’s never really relied on speed to produce offense, so he’s been able to remain productive in his late 30s and there’s no real reason to think that will change.
Going into last year, he was remarkably durable for his age, missing just two games in three seasons. While he did miss 17 games in 2013-14, he should be healthy and ready to go again this year.
He’s one of the smarter players in the game and he’ll likely have a little more help up front in New Jersey this season. Draft him late as a supporting player and reap the benefits.
He’s a virtual lock for 20+ goals and 55+ points.
May 3, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Loui Eriksson (21) shoots the puck during the second period against the Montreal Canadiens in game two of the second round of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Banknorth Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
4. Loui Eriksson, Left Wing, Boston Bruins
It’s a little strange putting a player who’s scored 70+ points three times on this list, but with Loui Eriksson struggling to find his place in Boston last season, many people will be cautious when drafting him and that will likely cause him to fall farther than he should.
The 16:32 he got in ice-time last year was one of the lowest of his career. With Jarome Iginla becoming a salary cap casualty this past summer, expect that to change.
Eriksson will likely get a good shot at playing a full season with David Krejci, and that means he will have every opportunity to return to the 25-goal, 70-point player he was in Dallas.
Last year also marked the first time he missed more than three games in a season in six years. The usually durable Swede should be able to give his fantasy teams excellent value and remain in the lineup in 2014-15.
Look for him to approach, if not eclipse 30 goals and 70 points again and be one of the reasons some of you win a fantasy hockey championship.
Mar 29, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby (70) makes a save during the first period against the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
3. Braden Holtby, Goaltender, Washington Capitals
Since making a big splash as an unexpected playoff starter in 2011-12, Braden Holtby hasn’t quite been able to become the unquestioned starter for the Capitals.
Having said that, he’s put up very good numbers in the games he has played, giving weight to the argument that a breakout season and top 10 fantasy season may be imminent.
He’s posted 23 wins and 4 shutouts in each of his last two seasons, while only playing in 36 and 48 games respectively.
Holtby has also shown himself to be very good under pressure, posting a .931 save percentage and 2.04 goals-against-average in 21 career playoff games.
With a revamped defense corps in front of him, new head coach Barry Trotz behind the bench and new goaltending coach Mitch Korn in the fold, the recipe for a big year is there for the Capitals’ starting netminder.
Look for Holtby to finally get the majority of the load this year and respond with a very good fantasy stat line. 60 games, 30-35 wins and 5-7 shutouts are very possible, and the potential for even more is there. You won’t be disappointed with him as your number one, and ecstatic if he’s your number two.
Apr 3, 2014; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (29) makes a save on Winnipeg Jets forward Bryan Little (18) during the third period at MTS Centre. The Penguins won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports
2. Bryan Little, Centre, Winnipeg Jets
“Little” is known about the Jets’ number one centre (see what I did there?), but Bryan Little quietly ended last season 33rd in the NHL with 64 points, ahead of names like Patrice Bergeron, Eric Staal and Jason Pominville.
He also played in all 82 games, and was remarkably consistent scoring nearly identical totals at home and on the road.
He has great chemistry with linemates Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler, and has finally put together two productive seasons in a row.
Look for Little to be among the Jets’ leaders again and to outscore some bigger names again.
Expect another 20-goal, 40-assist performance, but he has the potential to crack the top 25 in the NHL in points.
Jun 4, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; New York Rangers center Derek Stepan (21) skates with the puck against the Los Angeles Kings during the second period of game one of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
1. Derek Stepan, Centre, New York Rangers
At just 23 years old, Stepan is already entering his fifth NHL season, and he’s been very productive so far posting seasons of 45, 51, 44 (in 48 games) and 57 points respectively.
There’s a lot to like about Stepan; he’s reliable defensively, gets tons of ice-time on the penalty kill and the powerplay, and has locked up the top line centre spot on the Rangers, meaning he’ll always play with good wingers. He also hasn’t missed a regular season game yet in his career.
With Rick Nash coming off one of his worst seasons, and Chris Kreider improving every game, Stepan has the necessary tools to have a huge season in New York.
Look for the talented playmaker to reach 65 points with the potential for 70+ if Nash returns to his 35-40 goal form.