As training camps wind down and several players start getting cut from NHL rosters, I thought it might be interesting to look at the hardest NHL lineups to crack.
There are a few things to consider here.
- How many one-way contracts each team have
- How many of those contracts have no-trade or no-move clauses
- How good is the team’s prospect pool pushing for NHL jobs
Of course, there are several factors that go into how a GM shapes his roster, but previous mistakes with regards to contracts always rear their ugly heads. Below is a list of every team’s situation with regards to players signed for this year and next (according to capgeek.com), and the ranking of their prospect pools according to hockeysfuture.com.
A few things jumped out at me here:
- It’s a good thing the Avalanche have a ton of players signed for the next couple of years (20!), because their cupboard is dangerously thin. Although there is already some good, young talent on the roster, who replaces the likes of Danny Briere, Jarome Iginla and Brad Stuart once they’re gone?
- Only three teams have just one no-trade/move clause: the Kings (Mike Richards), the Oilers (Andrew Ference) and the Islanders (John Tavares). Clearly one of these things just doesn’t belong here.
- With a league-high 10 contracts with no-trade/move clauses signed through 2015-16, the Bruins will be a very competitive team for the next couple of years at least. The thing is, unless they find some diamonds in the rough, that will likely worsen their already mediocre prospect pool by the time the current window closes. That would leave them in a similar position as the Canucks: a non-playoff team with aging stars and no meaningful relief coming from within.
- Perhaps the team in the worst shape going forward is the Flyers. They’ve got 16 players signed through next season. Eight of those have no-trade/move clauses. In addition, their prospect pool ranks just 22nd. Even if they manage to create some roster openings, who will fill them?
- The Red Wings have always been a team with a deep prospect pool thanks to their great scouting and development system. However, they have 17 players signed through next season. With many young players pushing for jobs sooner rather than later, Detroit will likely have to either make some room on their NHL roster or trade them to try and win now. The good news is, only 5 players have no-trade/move clauses.
- The Penguins have been a juggernaut for a few years now. While the core of the team is still relatively young, the fact they have just 10 players signed beyond this season and the 17th ranked prospect pool suggests a major overhaul coming in the next couple of years.
- You have to wonder whether the lack of a true core in Buffalo will necessitate the rushing of certain top prospects in the system. With a stable of young players like theirs, patience is a virtue. They have a chance to build a formidable team in a couple of years.
- Last but certainly not least, everyone is waiting for Doug Wilson to blow up the Sharks roster. Part of the problem is that they don’t have much in the way of relief coming up through the system. Their top two lines and top four defensemen are also signed long-term with several no-trade/move clauses, making a re-tool on the fly very difficult. It’s a Stanley Cup or a complete rebuild for this group.
Every fan-base loves it when a hot rookie makes the team and gives it an unexpected jolt. Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson were prime examples last season. They provided the kind of offensive depth that allowed the Lightning to deal with both the injury to Steven Stamkos and the trading of Martin St. Louis.
While it’s certainly exciting to see, the reality is that teams that take a longer approach to developing and inserting players into their lineups find the most consistent form of success. This simply reinforces that fact. Teams like Chicago, Detroit, Montreal and Anaheim not only have solid cores locked up in long-term deals, but very good prospect pools thanks to excellent drafting and player development.
I think it’s also worth mentioning that, while they haven’t had much success yet, the Dallas Stars are well on their way to joining that group since Jim Nill took over as General Manager.
Tougher lineups to crack, in most cases, ensure high-level competition every year at training camp. The organization reaps the rewards of that over the long haul. It’s a wonder more teams don’t try harder to replicate that.