Mandatory Credit: Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports
While nothing that relies on both chance and projected performance can ever be set in stone, should things remain as they now appear, the dreadful Buffalo Sabres will once again finish this NHL season on the bottom floor. If so, by virtue of the 20% chance that slot has of winning the grand prize, mathematics will likely dictate the Sabres will be drafting 2nd overall at the 2015 draft. Just as they did in 2014.
But in a year with two potential superstars right there for the drafting that might not be too bad. And not necessarily for the blatantly obvious reason, either.
Regardless of the sport, every bottom-dwelling team would jump at the chance to draft #1 overall; to have its pick of the litter. And to (potentially) have the option the Quebec Nordiques did when they chose Eric Lindros…and then swung the swap that netted them a boatload of picks and players who ultimately won the franchise its first Stanley Cup. (Albeit in Colorado.)
But with that #1 pick also comes risk and responsibility. As the old knight said to Indiana Jones, choose wisely. Because if you do you too may get your hands on the Holy Grail. Choose poorly however, and you may very well endure the pain of that misstep for decades.
By contrast, the pressure’s mostly off for the team picking directly behind you.
Regarding the 2015 NHL Draft, it’s pretty certain that no matter what Boston University’s Jack Eichel does, the spotlight on Erie Otter Connor McDavid is burning so bright it’s almost incomprehensible that any team in the top spot would pass him over. In fact, they really can’t. And furthermore for the GM who chooses him, the reward for the team may be high, but for him not so much.
To illustrate that last point, when former Pittsburgh GM Eddie Johnston (whose name here in Hartford will be forever prefaced with words usually represented in print by a string of random punctuation marks; this for giving away to his ex-and-future employer one Ron Francis) drafted Mario Lemieux for the Penguins, it worked out but he wasn’t regarded as a genius for it; he had no choice. Just as it will be for the first GM at the podium in Florida next June.
Returning to the main point, should the Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes or Columbus Blue Jackets end up in the #2 slot…You know what? Let’s just go with Buffalo, as realistically no other team has the ability to showcase the non-talent required over the entire season to compete with them for the 30th position.
Should the Sabres ping-pong ball emerge at #2 the pressure’s off; it’s all out of their hands. The lottery’s winner will take McDavid and Buffalo will receive a fantastic consolation prize in Eichel. And on the off-chance that McDavid, or even Eichel, should later prove to be a bust, it won’t be Buffalo that’ll be lamenting ‘what coulda been’ for decades. Because they had no choice; they had to draft whichever of the two was not.
To further expound: while quarterbacks Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf are considered historical NFL busts, it’s all on them. Few blame the Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers, respectively, because Drew Bledsoe and Peyton Manning were already off the board ahead of them.
Some more cases in point: in 1981 the New Orleans Saints drafted George Rogers at #1, leaving Lawrence Taylor for the New York Giants at #2. In 1984 the Portland Trail Blazers opted for Sam Bowie, which left the Chicago Bulls with Michael Jordan. (To be fair, the Blazers chose 2nd and the Bulls 3rd that year, but at #1 the Houston Rockets did just fine with Hakeem Olajuwon.) In 2007 Portland was at it again, selecting Greg Oden #1 and leaving Kevin Durant for the Seattle Supersonics. In 1993, the Ottawa Senators chose Alexandre Daigle, which left Chris Pronger for the Hartford Whalers.
Not every Can’t Miss prospect can’t miss, and when they do and the guy they also could’ve drafted goes on to the Hall of Fame or close, that casts a shadow over the franchise that’d make Punxsutawney Phil envious.
So you see, sometimes drafting from #2 leaves you at #1 anyway and, when it doesn’t, the matter will always be recognized as to have been out of your hands to begin with.
Not too shabby.