The Anaheim Ducks Are Due For A Free Fall

A quick look at the standings and you would think the Anaheim Ducks are the best team in hockey.  And they might be.  But looks can be very deceiving.

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The Anaheim Ducks are leading the NHL in points with 56, two clear of the Montreal Canadiens.  If that was all the information you had you might be inclined to pick them as a Stanley Cup favorite.  But a deeper look into the numbers around the league leaders may show cause for concern on the pond.

Start with goal differential.  Through 40 games the Ducks have scored a grand total of four more goals than they have allowed.  Exactly the same differential as the Minnesota Wild, currently ranked 20th in points.  The Ducks have the worst differential in the top third of the league, with only Winnipeg at 10 being under double digits with a +8.  So clearly the Ducks are winning the close games.

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But close games can also be misleading.  When dissecting the Ducks schedule they have played in 24 games decided by one goal.  Amazingly none of them have been lost in regulation and only two of the games have been lost in overtime, home against the New York Islanders and on the road to the Los Angeles Kings.  Oddly a team with this much talent is 4-3 in the shootout/skills competition.

Success like that in close games can’t last forever.  The odds always catch up.  A visit to HockeyAnalysis.com show the league leading Ducks sitting 17th in Corsi for percentage at 50.5%.  That’s a fancy way of saying that the Ducks are allowing as many shots on goal, near goal and blocking as many shots as their opponents are.  By comparison the underachieving Dallas Stars are 15th in the same category with 17 less points.

Drilling down further the Ducks are 13th in the league in overall save percentage and 17th in shooting percentage.  Again, right in the middle of the league.  Those with possession numbers Anaheim fares a bit better, coming in 9th as of New Years Eve according to puckstats.wordpress.com.  Lastly, the Ducks are currently right in the middle of the league in 5-on-5 goal ratio with only a 1.03.  For every 100 goals the Ducks allow at even strength, they are scoring only 103.  The Philadelphia Flyers have the exact same efficiency and are 25th in the league.  By contract, Nashville leads the league with a 1.56.

The Ducks are still a good team and will likely make life very difficult in a seven game series for any opponent out West.  But the stats say the Ducks are more average than their record indicates.  They won’t be able to count on continued mastery of their opponents in close games.  A team with this much talent can certainly figure it out and be dangerous, but I wouldn’t expect the Ducks to maintain the top seed going into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Without addressing their hidden issues they may be fortunate to earn home ice advantage in the first round.