Fansided

NHL Tanking: Fandom Has Gone Too Far

By Adam Savard |

Conversations regarding tanking run rampant among the fan bases of teams languishing at the bottom of the NHL standings.  Not only does this cause conflicting emotions in our fandom, but tanking advocates are rooting for something that just flat out doesn’t work.

Tanking is described in the Merriam-Webster dictionary as “to be very unsuccessful, to fail completely. To make no effort to win a contest (such as a tennis match); to deliberately lose a game, match, etc.”.  Leading up to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, fans of the Edmonton Oilers, Buffalo Sabres and others are actively pleading for the teams they have rooted for for years, in some cases decades, to lay down and lose as many games as possible in order to earn the right to draft a high end talent.  In this case those talents are Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, two players that some fans believe can restore their favorite team to Stanley Cup contention almost immediately. And these two players are apparently so dreamy that we have developed tanking rankings to see who has the best odds of ‘earning’ one of these players.

I have heard all I want to hear about the subject.

To expect a professional franchise to actively go out and lose while still accept money from fans in the form of ticket sales, concessions, merchandise sales and sponsorship money in my opinion is lunacy.  These athletes have worked their entire lives to reach the pinnacle of their profession and to expect or imply that their dreams should be tossed away for what might be is ignoring all of the effort and sacrifice the players and front office personnel make to achieve success.

Already fans are screaming to have key assets such as Taylor Hall or Tyler Myers traded for future considerations in an effort to make teams worse.  And these aren’t the only two names being thrown around.  Players of this caliber will be traded at the trade deadline this year, and it will be referred to as tanking.  You know what it actually is?  The exact same thing that teams have done at or near trade deadlines past.  Franchises surrendering the players are expecting talented prospects to help in the future and draft picks to increase the odds of finding NHL caliber players.  Acquiring teams are trying to win now.

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Were teams trading away players over the last thirty years tanking?  Or have we just branded losing as something more palatable to fans?  To trick ourselves into thinking that the losing has a point?  That it will end at some point and we will be able to be happy rooting again?

Ok then, tanking advocates.  Since you argue this so vigorously let’s take a look at the top five picks in every draft since 2000.  If you think that McDavid or Eichel or someone else at the top of the upcoming class can put you over the top, let’s look back and see how many times it’s happened since 2000.

How many of the top five players in each of these drafts have won the Stanley Cup with the team that drafted them?  How many teams were able to acquire their savior and start planning parades?

Of the 70 players drafted in the top five since 2000 these are the players that have hoisted the Cup with the team that selected them, and the number of Cups they have won:

That’s 10 out of 70 (14.3%).  And the number is lower when you see that Fleury, Malkin, Crosby and Staal all won the same Cup so the Penguins had to be awful for a long time and still didn’t win the Cup until Jordan Staal, the last of these four, was drafted in 2006.  And the Blackhawks are in the same boat with Kane and Toews, both winning the Cups together after Kane was drafted in 2007.  And Ladd and Eric Staal won the same Cup with Carolina in 2006.

This means is that 85.7% of the time, top picks have not won the Stanley Cup with the team that drafted them since the 2000 draft.  And the number is actually higher because of the overlap.

Trades still matter.  Waiver wire pick ups still matter.  Salary cap management and draft picks outside of the top of the draft still matter.  Coaching matters too.

With so many variables needing to come together, why would a fan base expect top picks to just come in and put the team over the top immediately?  You like the Edmonton Oilers model?  They have had three of the top four first overall picks and are the leaders at the half way point to make it four in five.

But the Blackhawks and Penguins are still the examples because you can point out Kane, Toews and Crosby (should be Jordan Staal) and say that they earned the ultimate prize.  And yes they did.  But even these three great players needed a team around them to get it done.  Dustin Byfuglien was MADE in the playoffs.  Chris Kunitz and Rob Scuderi didn’t matter to the Penguins?

And yet we are so quick to throw years of our fandom away for potential that isn’t really there.  You can talk yourself into rooting for losses if you want to.  But the facts are the facts:  drafting elite players guarantees nothing.  Not without a supporting team around them.  Not without a GM that is willing to make bold moves to acquire those pieces and manage the salary cap.

Sure, McDavid and Eichel are fantastic players and both project to be great professional players.  And so were Rick DiPietro, Rick Nash, and Alex Ovechkin.  All three with varying degrees of NHL success.  All three first overall picks without a Stanley Cup.

So cheer for tanking if you must.  You are entitled to your opinion.  Just know that recent facts don’t back you up.

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