NHL Standings Basement Arms Race:Leafs, Oilers, Coyotes, Sabres

Mitchell Marner puts on a leafs jersey. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

#27 Toronto Maple Leafs

Since exiting the second round of the 2003-04 playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs have fallen on hard times. The only bright spot was the 2012-13 season where they made the playoffs with by finishing in 5^th place of the Eastern Conference. Of course, this was still a season of turmoil. The GM, Brian Burke, was fired that January and it was clear that his rebuild from 2008-2013 was a failure. The Leafs later exited the first round of the playoffs versus the Boston Bruins.

“The challenge in Toronto is not coming up with the plan but sticking to the plan. That is the hard part. Our vision is to draft and develop our own players. I think every decision we make has to be about building a winning organization that can sustain itself year after year after year through the draft.” – Brendan Shanahan, President Toronto Maple Leafs

This past season, Brendan Shanahan announced that this time the Leafs would rebuild the right way. As a result, the Toronto Maple Leafs finished the 2014-15 season in 27^th place with 68 points. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, this rebuild could still take some time. The Leafs signed a number of decent veterans on short-term contracts to help them through this season, but expect any number of them to be traded by the trade deadline. Make no mistake, management’s mission is to obtain prospects and picks for the 2016 NHL Draft.

The good news is that they have Mike Babcock as a coach now, and they do have a decent young core to start with. Of all the skaters 25 and under, the team has 2 who were top 5 draft picks, 9 from the first round and 6 from the second round. The most notable talent of the rebuild includes Mitchell Marner (18), William Nylander (19), Morgan Rielly (21) and the slightly older Nazem Kadri (24).

What I wonder is how some of the older team members will fit into the future. They have two quality 26 year olds from the 2007 draft. The forward James Van Riemsdyk was drafted 2^nd overall and Nick Spaling was drafted 58^th overall. In addition, they have two decent 27 year old goaltenders: Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer. For defensemen and goaltenders, the ages of 26 and 27 are still fairly young. As a 26 year old forward, Van Riemsdyk might not quite fit into the future and is an attractive trade target for a team that is further along. I say it is about 50/50 whether Van Riemsdyk stays.

Next: The Edmonton Oilers

NHL draft number one pick Connor McDavid at the Edmonton Oilers rookie camp. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

#28 Edmonton Oilers

After a run to the Stanley Cup Finals in the 2005-06 season, the Edmonton Oilers have been through a 9 season playoff drought. After attempts to retool the team between the 2006-07 and 2008-09 seasons, the Oilers sunk to last place in the Western Conference in 2009-10, while embarking on a massive rebuild. While the fans suffered with 9 disappointing seasons, the Oilers were rewarded with a series of incredible draft picks, including 4 first overall. Most recently, the Edmonton Oilers finished 28^th place in the standings with 62 points.

It has been a long rebuild, but incredibly fruitful in terms of obtaining talent. The Oilers started to put together the core of this team back in 2008 with the selection of Jordan Eberle 22^nd overall. This was followed up with 3 first overall draft picks including, Taylor Hall in 2010, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011 and Nail Yakupov in 2012.

While the Oilers amassed some elite offensive talent early on, they had inexperienced coaches while remaining weak on defense and in net. These are two positions that take longer to develop, and this extended the length of the rebuild. Fortunately, it may have been all worthwhile after obtaining another first overall draft pick in 2015, being the generational talent Connor McDavid.

“A glass of wine or a beer, and I think in two years they win the cup. That may be a little eager, but I don’t think more than four.” Ron MacLean, Sportscaster

This offseason, there has been many other changes within the Oilers organization; the most notable additions were Peter Chiarelli as GM and Head Coach Todd McLellan. The Oilers also opted to shore up their defense by trading for Eric Gryba and the prospect Griffin Reinhart. Most importantly, they filled the largest defensive gap by signing the veteran defenseman Andrej Sekera. Lastly, the Oilers also improved the goaltending by trading for Cam Talbot as a potential starter and signing Anders Nilsson for depth.

In total, the Oilers have built the team around a core of high-end talent under 25 years of age. This includes 4 first overall draft picks, 6 top 5 draft picks, 7 top 10 picks, 9 in the first round and 3 in the second round. In comparison, the Oilers are light on second round picks and total pool of talent. Arguably, depth players are much easier to obtain than the elite talent, which puts the Oilers in an enviable position.

Next: The Arizona Coyotes

Arizona Coyotes right wing Shane Doan (19). Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

#29 Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes have had the most recent success of the group, with a run to the NHL Western Conference Finals during the 2011-12 season. After two seasons of missing the playoffs, it became apparent during the 2014-15 season that their strategy shifted to rebuilding. Both management and ownership were adamant that they did not need a “complete rebuild” and made a few trades. Soon after, the Arizona Coyotes joined the race to the bottom and finished 29^th with 56 points, in the hopes of landing one the #1 NHL Draft Pick.

“We know we’re having a difficult season. We need to bring some young assets in. We want to introduce more youth and speed into our lineup, which is what we plan on doing going forward.” – Don Maloney, General Manager Arizona Coyotes

Despite the drop in performance and not winning the NHL Draft Lottery, the Coyotes made some smart moves that landed them some great prospects. It started mid-season with moving Rob Klinkhammer and a 2016 conditional 5^th round pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for the defensive prospect Philip Samuelsson.

Without a doubt, the best moves were towards the trade deadline. The Coyotes rented Antoine Vermette to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for prospect Klas Dahlbeck and a 2015 1^st round pick. Then the Coyotes rented Zbynek Michalek and a 2015 conditional 3rd-round pick in exchange for the prospect Maxim Letunov. The Coyotes were able to re-sign both Antoine Vermette and Zbynek Michalek this offseason. Further, the Coyotes also traded Keith Yandle, Chris Summers and a 2016 4^th round pick in exchange for prospect Anthony Duclair, John Moore, a 2015 2^nd round pick and a 2016 conditional 1^st round pick.

After a season with some great trades, the Coyotes obtained the 3^rd overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft and selected elite prospect Dylan Strome. The Coyotes have a lot of young talent 25 and under in their system. This includes 1 top 5 pick, 3 picks in the top ten, 9 first rounders and 16 in the first two rounds.  This doesn’t include the prospects drafted later, who are so far performing above their draft pedigree (Philip Samuelsson, Michael Stone, Anthony Duclair and Tobias Rieder).

It looks like the Coyotes have made very quick progress in their rebuild, but I do not expect the Coyotes to make huge strides this year. They still have a lot of older veterans who will serve two purposes. One is to help mentor the youth on the team. Secondly, they will serve as trade bait towards the Trade Deadline once again.

If there is little progress in the standings early on, another race to the bottom to obtain a high draft pick could be too tempting. This time they might just land Arizona’s own Auston Matthews.

Next: The Buffalo Sabres

Jack Eichel puts on Sabres jersey after being selected as the number two overall pick to the Buffalo Sabres. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

#30 Buffalo Sabres

After making it to the Conference Finals during the 2006-07 season, the Buffalo Sabers fans have endured up and down seasons. They had two seasons attaining the playoffs, 2009-10 and 2010-11, but they exited during the first round both times. The last two seasons, the Sabres finished last in the league.

“I don’t buy into five-year rebuilds. I think when you use terminology like that as a GM you’re really setting yourself up for a long run if your owner buys into that. I could sit here and say it’s a seven-year rebuild and hopefully I get 10 years out of it. But that’s not reality and not what I want anyway. I want to rebuild here properly, which takes time. But it doesn’t have to take years.” – Tim Murray, General Manager Buffalo Sabres

The Sabers went into full rebuild mode in the 2013-14 season. Notably, they traded away Thomas Vanek, Steve Ott  and their #1 goaltender Ryan Miller. The Sabres have made some good moves and others that make you scratch your head. The one thing that is clear is that they have been turning over the roster in order to acquire young prospects and draft picks.

There is a lot of anticipation to see how the new roster will shape up under the new head coach Dan Bylsma. The most notable additions for this season include Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane and Ryan O’Reilly. Out of players aged 25 and under, the Sabres have 4 players who were picked in the top five in drafts. This includes 2 second overall picks and one 3^rd overall. In addition, 5 picks were in the top 10, 8 in the first round and 10 in the second round. I should note that 9 of these prospects are in the late second round.

While the new additions to the roster should help to improve upon the Sabres league low of 158 goals last season, there is less certainty around the defense and goaltending. At 269 goals against, the Sabres were 29^th in the league last season. A young defensive core will need to develop further and Robin Lehner is unproven as a starting goaltender.

Next: What to Expect from these Four Teams

What to Expect from the Leafs, Oilers, Coyotes & Sabres

In comparison, the Oilers have the most elite level talent of the group. The Sabres have the second most elite talent, but they have the most depth from a large number of second round picks. The Oilers and Sabres also appear ready to emerge from the bottom of the league this season. What holds these two teams back from being labeled contenders are the similar challenges on defense and in net. They both have a young defensive core that will need to develop further in order to make the playoffs. In addition, both teams have goaltenders that need to prove themselves as starters this season.

In comparison, the Leafs and Coyotes are still early in their rebuilds. The Coyotes should be more competitive this season, and may not require a full turnover of its roster. That being said I do not expect a huge improvement in the standings. If that is the case I expect the Coyotes to continue to trade veterans for prospects and draft picks once again. The Leafs will continue to be very aggressive in trading veterans and I think that they are already focused on drafting high for 2016. I expect the Leafs to finish last in the league for 2015-16.

Draft pedigree of skaters in each team’s system under 25 years old:

Next: NHL 2015-16 Season Projected Rankings

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