Steven Stamkos: Free Agent Watch

Steven Stamkos Watch

Steven Stamkos watch is in full swing while the Tampa Bay Lightning and Stamkos remain apart in contract negotiations. In late January Elliot Friedman reported the Lightning had offered a contract with annual cap hit of $8.5 million dollars. While a term was not mentioned in the report, it is assumed that the contract would run the maximum eight years ($64m) as outlined in the CBA.

Both the Lightning and Stamkos have remained mum on the negotiations, but the hockey world is watching in awe as the superstar remains without a contract three weeks ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. Speculation is running rampant with talk of trade, and Stamkos making it to Free Agency. Here is a look at the season Stamkos has pieced together thus far:

How is Stamkos performing in the 2015-16 season?

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The 25-year-old center, standing 6’1″ and 195 pounds, has pieced together a fair season playing on Vladislav Namestnikov‘s right wing in Tampa Bay. Through 51 games Stamkos has racked up 21 goals and 19 assists for 40 points (this is on pace for 64 points through 82 games). So far he has shot 148 pucks on net for a shooting percentage of 14.2 percent. The 40 points has Stamkos outside of the top 30 players in terms of points scored this season, but his 21 goals have him just outside of the top 10 in goals scored (tied with teammate Nikita Kucherov). While Kucherov is currently leading the Lightning in scoring and outscoring Stamkos in total points (45), Stamkos is putting up slightly higher point totals than fellow center and Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews (21 goals and 17 assists). This comparison is important as Toews is in the first year of an 8 year $84 million deal ($10.5m aav). Many are using Toews’ contract as a comparison when estimating the next contract for the Lightning captain.

Feb 5, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay defeated Pittsburgh 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Will Stamkos be dealt by the Trade Deadline?

The easy answer here is “no”. Steven Stamkos is the captain of the Lightning team and remains integral as a voice in the dressing room and a major piece of the team’s offense. Stamkos also holds a no-movement clause that he is unlikely to waive given the Lightning are expected to make a strong playoff run this year. If a circumstance does arise where Stamkos is willing to waive his no movement clause and the team is willing to trade the star center, the logistics to facilitate the deal would be a nightmare.

Would a team be willing to send the needed package to pluck an unsigned Stamkos from Tampa? If so, what team has the salary cap space to fit Stamkos and his $7.5m cap hit this season? As a side thought on this topic, what team would give up assets now for a player that is widely believed to become available 4 months from now via free agency?

Further in support of Stamkos staying in Tampa Bay for the remainder of the season, the former first overall pick has voiced on numerous occasions that he wants to remain a Lightning. While many are skeptical that these claims are merely staged statements to the media in attempt to deter the potential for a negative impact on team chemistry, the words need to be considered when viewing the potential for Stamkos to waive his no-movement clause.

Will Stamkos be the star of the 2016 Free Agency?

With each passing day that Stamkos remains unsigned, the belief increases that he will be a Free Agent come July 1st, 2016. This belief will only strengthen if Stamkos enters March without a contract. Many have pointed blame to a rift between head coach Jon Cooper and the captain, which may be evident in Stamkos playing on the wing instead of his natural center position. This speculation has not been confirmed, but it leads one to wonder if the relationship between center and coach is a reason a deal has not been reached.

As for salary, Anze Kopitar‘s recent 8 year $80m extension is viewed by many to be similar to what Stamkos expects to receive on the open market. Given the season stats outlined above and Stamkos’ resume missing a Stanley Cup, anything north of $10.5m per year would simply be an over-payment. Ultimately, a 7 year deal with a $9-10 million dollar cap hit is likely what Stamkos receives on the open market.

Next: Jonathan Drouin: Two Sides to Every Story

What are the potential destinations?

Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues and Montreal Canadiens.

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