Hockey Sabermetrics: Project Helium – “Carbon Block”
What I am going to be introducing to you is something called Project Helium. It will bring a series of original hockey sabermetrics formulas that I created to the public, given the fact that the formulas themselves may be fluid. The first formula I am going to bring to you is called “Carbon Block”.
Here is the formula:
blocked shots+takeaways/time on ice=x. (the purpose is to evaluate positive defensive plays)
To start the project, I am going to analyze two defenseman. I will compare Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators (oft-criticized for play in his own end) and one of the best all-around d-men in the league, that being the Los Angeles Kings Drew Doughty.
Considering the fact that this season is incomplete, I analyzed the prior two seasons data for Karlsson’s and Doughty’s score of Carbon Block. Here are the results:
2013-2014:
Erik Karlsson: 101 blocks, 68 takeaways, 2,219:59 time on ice
Drew Doughty: 91 blocks, 16 takeaways, 2,005:35 time on ice
2014-2015:
Erik Karlsson: 89 blocks, 59 takeaways, 2,234:55 time on ice
Drew Doughty: 144 blocks, 12 takeaways, 2,377:40 time on ice
(stats are from regular season – not postseason)
Actual results from Carbon Block (Lower score is better)
2013-2014:
Erik Karlsson: 13.12 (82 games played)
Drew Doughty: 18.73 (78 games played)
2014-2015:
Erik Karlsson: 15.10 (82 games played)
Drew Doughty: 15.24 (82 games played)
As you can see, in this statistic both players are actually quite similar. Karlsson is even better than Doughty both years, and by a pretty good margin for the 2013-2014 season. Both of these defenseman log a lot of minutes, as they are over 2,000 minutes played for both years.
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Here is something to think about: Could Karlsson score better because he takes more chances than Doughty? Keep this in mind, a player will get more takeaways when he takes more chances, however will get beat more often. If you were to combine both seasons, Doughty would have more blocked shots than Karlsson. Karlsson has significantly more takeaways than Doughty however, which is why he scores better in Carbon Block.
Some of a players’ statistics is due to the style their team plays, so it is possible to get different results in different systems.
To conclude this study, Karlsson and Doughty might not be the same level of player. However, they make for an interesting study using Carbon Block. Do I think that Erik Karlsson is a better player than Drew Doughty? Absolutely not, however, looking for a hidden value is why I create hockey sabermetrics.
Just to illustrate the hidden value in Carbon Block, I will give you the results of Calgary Flames defenseman Kris Russell. While Russell isn’t a #1 defensemen, he blocks a lot more shots in less minutes than Karlsson and Doughty (Russell had over 200 blocks each season). His Carbon Block score for ’13-14 was 6.95, and improved to 5.65 the following year (much better score than Karlsson and Doughty). Russell isn’t elite, but is he better than advertised?
Next: 2016 NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Rounds 1-3
*statistical information obtained from www.NHL.com and www.foxsports.com
Keep in mind the fact that every formula is fluid as I analyze more and more players, however I think it might be key to figure out which players could have value who are playing lesser minutes. Stay Tuned.