New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique: Expendable in Near Future
New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique: Are GM’s Calling About His Availability?
New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique is finally on pace to match his rookie season point total of 51 from back in 2011-12. Henrique, who has 38 points in 59 games so far is one of several positive stories out of New Jersey in 2015-16.
The Devils are 30-24-7 with 67 points in 61 games, sitting just outside a wild-card position. They were a playoff team during the first half of the season – only to trail off over the past three months. Since December, New Jersey is 18-15-5, flirting with .500 (win percentage) hockey.
Give the Devils credit, it’s been a complete team effort in 2015-16. For a team expected to lurk around the NHL’s basement, New Jersey is exceeding expectations. But, if you look at the stats, this team is overloaded with overachieving individual performances.
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The only performance that comes of little surprise is goaltender Cory Schneider‘s borderline Vezina quality season. After playing 69 games in 2014-15, going 26-31-9 with five shutouts, a 2.26GAA, and .925 save percentage, Schneider already proved to us that he’s one of the NHL’s best netminders. In 2015-16, Cory has played 51 games, going 26-19-1 with four shutouts, a 2.06GAA, and .927 save percentage. Who could have imagined that New Jersey would find such a suitable replacement, so quickly, for the legendary Martin Brodeur.
The one other bright spot for New Jersey is newcomer Kyle Palmieri, acquired from Anaheim before the 2015-16 season. He was expected to step in and assume top six duties – he’s done, and then some. He’s got 23 goals and 17 assists (40 points) in 61 games so far, and looks to be a major piece of New Jersey’s core moving forward.
Overachieving Players
Made the team after impressing on a PTO offer. He was signed to a one-year contract. Stempniak is on pace for one his most productive seasons since his glory days with the St.Louis Blues. He’s got 16 goals, 25 assists (41) points in 61 games. He’ll struggle to duplicate his 2015-16 season next year if New Jersey decides to re-sign him. Don’t be surprised if he’s moved before Monday’s trade deadline, as he’s makes for a cheap attractive rental.
He’s only managed a couple of seasons in his career with a similar point-per-game pace (where he actually managed to stay healthy the entire season). He’s been on IR for a while, and is expected to return soon. Cammalleri is your prototypical bang-or-bust type player. There’s an adherent risk in signing these types of players. Mike Cammalleri carries a $5 million dollar cap hit through 2019-20, and also owns a no-trade clause. Paying 2nd line money to a 1st line talent with injury history is a risk worth taking for the New Jersey Devils.
Statistical Anomalies
Bobby Farnham has seven goals on 33 shots, for a 21.2 shooting percentage.
Adam Henrique has 19 goals on 110 shots, for a 17.3 shooting percentage.
Joseph Blandisi has five goals on 31 shots, for a 16.1 shooting percentage.
*several players with well above career average shooting percentage in 2015-16
Looking to the Future
New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique
He was selected 82nd overall (3rd round) in 2008 from OHL’s Windsor Spitfires. A responsible two-way center in junior, Henrique was also an above point-per-game player his last two seasons with Windsor (63 points in 57 games 2008-09/77 points in 54 games 2009-10). Adam’s plus/minus was also off the charts (+17 in 2007-28/+39 in 2008-09/+38 in 2009-10).
Henrique spent his first season of pro hockey with AHL Albany in 2010-11, appearing in 73 games, posting 50 points as a rookie. The performance ultimately earned him full-time NHL duties in 2011-12.
He produced 51 points in 74 games, with a +8 as a rookie in the NHL. Adam was one of several surprise emergence’s in 2011-12, which helped carry New Jersey into the Stanley Cup Final. They fell short, but Henrique still produced 13 points in 24 games. In 2012-13 (lock-out shortened season), Adam fell victim to the sophomore slump. Appearing 42 of 48 games, only managing 16 points. He was able to bounce back in year three (2013-14) producing 25 goals, 18 assists (43 points) in 77 games, and finally a plus player again. Last season (2014-15), Henrique matched his previous season total of 43 (16 goals, 27 assists) in 75 games. He finished -6, largely based on the team’s place in the final standings and goal differential.
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In 2015-16, Henrique has 19 goals, 19 assists (38 points) in 59 games so far, with a +13. He’s got four powerplay goals (eight powerplay points), two shorthanded goals (three shorthanded points), making him a complete special teams threat (averages over two minutes/gp of PP and PK time). As mentioned above, his 17.3 shooting percentage for 19 goals isn’t likely to be duplicated next season – Henrique is more of a playmaker than a goal-scorer.
He’s also not the type of player to stand out – or be flashy (except on rare occasions). He goes about his business, and does exactly what’s asked/needed from a top six center. The important thing to note is that he plays a very smart, intelligent game. He’ll block a shot if needed (46 on the season), or use his body/get into the dirty areas (57 hits on the season). His giveaway/takeaway ratio of 23/29 in 2015-16 also helps to support the argument for his responsible defensive play.
Adam Henrique is 26-years-old, and carries a $4 million dollar cap hit through 2018-19. There’s few contracts in the NHL this cap friendly in contrast to what the player does for your team. This deal lands in the same range as Islanders D Travis Hamonic given the positional value (Top six, responsible, two-way centers in their mid 20s are a rare luxury).
How Long Before New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique is Squeezed Out?
Problem 1: Travis Zajac
At some point between now and 2020-21, Zajac’s $5.75 million dollar cap hit has a chance of being a valuable, tradeable asset. At this point, there’s few teams that would be willing to take the long-term risk. It’s worth noting, New Jersey is not shopping Travis Zajac – this is simply hypothetical down the road. Given his extensive injury history, he’ll need to put together a few healthy seasons to shake the label – the same way Carolina’s Jeff Skinner did.
If you can get 75 plus games from Zajac, he’ll play well enough to earn his lucrative cap hit, if not exceed it. The long-term committment to Zajac was clear in 2013-14 when New Jersey gave him an 8-year extension and full no-trade clause to stay with the club. He’s locked into one of two center spots for the next half decade.
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Problem 2: A Pair of Promising Draft Picks
Pavel Zacha – Selected 6th overall at last year’s draft (2015), Zacha is a big 6’3 210lbs Czech center from OHL’s Sarnia Sting. He had a disappointing World Juniors – but a lot of that was due to overall team performance. Zacha has 23 goals and 28 assists (51 points) in 44 games of OHL action this year. Many experts had Pavel Zacha cracking the Devils roster as an 18-year-old in 2015-16. It will be shocking if he’s not a full-time NHLer to open 2016-17.
John Quenneville – Taken 30th overall in 2014, Quenneville stands 6’1 205lbs, and plays for WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings. He was selected to represent Team Canada at the World Juniors, and showed an ability to play a complete 200-foot game. There’s been significant improvements in his all-around game since being drafted, particularly in his skating and shot. Quenneville’s NHL arrival is possible in 2016-17, but more likely to occur in 2017-18 after a year in the AHL.
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Window for Decisions?
There’s no rush to solve the log jam up the middle. In most cases, players can be thrown on the wing – especially common with young players. In New Jersey’s case, Zajac, Henrique, and Zacha need to be played at center. To force any one of the three to the wing will significantly take away from their abilities.
New Jersey could conceivably move forward with the trio as 1-2-3 options up the middle in 2016-17. You’re not taking away from Pavel Zacha’s development if you give him third line minutes at even strength, with additional time on special teams. Given Zacha’s skill-set, it shouldn’t take long for him to earn a top six role – at which case, Henrique is suddenly in a veritable Ryan Nugent-Hopkins situation.
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Final Take
At what point do other General Mangers start picking up the phone making inquiries regarding the potential availability of New Jersey Devils F Adam Henrique? Is this a name we’re talking about next season around this time (if Pavel Zacha has an impact rookie season)?
Would the New Jersey Devils be wise to trade Henrique in an attempt to address other positional needs? or, Should the Devils consider trading one of their center prospects to keep Henrique? Is there anything New Jersey can do to have everyone co-exist with one another?