NHL Draft Lottery: A Lesson in Randomness
Adjustments to this year’s NHL Draft Lottery format promise to yield interesting results in April. While the draft lottery process is fairly new, and changes were to be expected along the way, no team has benefited more than the Edmonton Oilers.
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Having been the benefactor of several first overall picks in recent history (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Connor McDavid), Edmonton is once again in the basement of the Western Conference, flirting among the top odds to land the number one pick.
Believe it or not, the Edmonton Oilers have a decent chance to claim it, and thus enrage the hockey world – as does every other team in the draft lottery. For the first time in the NHL Draft Lottery’s existence, several teams involved walk in with a legitimate shot at one of the top three picks. All it takes is one random draw where the unfathomed team holding one-to-five percent odds gets lucky.
NHL Draft Lottery: New Format
If you haven’t had an opportunity to play around with the NHL Draft Lottery Simulator, we’ve linked it. This is a genuis creation by Rob Zaenglein.
We’ve linked the new format as outlined by NHL.com.
Odds to Win First Pick at NHL Draft Lottery:
30th – 20 percent
29th – 13.5 percent
28th – 11.5 percent
27th – 9.5 percent
26th – 8.5 percent
25th – 7.5 percent
24th – 6.5 percent
23rd – 6 percent
22nd – 5 percent
21st – 3.5 percent
20th – 3 percent
19th – 2.5 percent
18th – 2 percent
17th – 1 percent
Each selection changes every teams odds of claiming the next pick. If the fourth worst record wins the Draft Lottery, the top three teams improve their odds by one-to-two percent for claiming the second pick.
If the second worst team wins the draft lottery, the team with the worst record jumps a little over three percent from 20 to 23.121 percent.
If the worst record team (20 percent odds of winning) wins the draft lottery. The next worst record jumps to 16.875 percent, while third jumps to 14.375 percent for second pick.
NHL Draft Lottery: The Simulator
To get a better understanding of the randomness surrounding this year’s draft lottery format, We decided to run the simulator 100 times x three sets (300 times total).
Table One
Table Two
Table Three
Given the draft order is bound to change before the end of 2015-16, we’ve chosen to disregard teams in our results, and focus simply on draft position.
30th Place (20 percent chance to win first pick)
Table One:
1st – 15/100
2nd – 21/100
3rd – 15/100
Top 3 – 51/100
Table Two:
1st – 14/100
2nd – 14/100
3rd – 20/100
Top 3 – 48/100
Table Three:
1st – 22/100
2nd – 12/100
3rd – 11/100
Top 3 – 45/100
Total (percent won):
1st – 17 percent
2nd – 15.67 percent
3rd – 15.33 percent
Top 3 – 48 percent
The numbers suggest the team with the worst record has roughly 48 percent chance of claiming a top three pick at the NHL Draft Lottery. The 20 percent chance of winning first pick means the team with the best odds will only win once every five draws – our numbers came in even lower at an average of 17 times per 100 draws (1.7/5).
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29th Place (13.5 percent chance to win first pick)
Table One:
1st – 11/100
2nd – 15/100
3rd – 22/100
Top 3: 48/100
Table Two:
1st – 14/100
2nd – 14/100
3rd – 13/100
Top 3: 41/100
Table Three:
1st – 15/100
2nd – 13/100
3rd – 14/100
Top 3: 42/100
Total (percent won):
1st – 13.33 percent
2nd – 14 percent
3rd – 16.33 percent
Top 3 – 43.67 percent
As you can tell, the variation in odds from 30th to 29th is very minimal – only 4.33 percent less chance of walking away with a top three pick. Oddly enough, the second worst record won the third pick more often than the 30th place team – roughly 3.67 percent less odds of winning the top pick though.
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28th Place (11.5 percent chance to win first pick)
Da Windy City
Table One:
1st – 17/100
2nd – 8/100
3rd – 14/100
Top 3 – 39/100
Table Two:
1st – 15/100
2nd – 11/100
3rd – 14/100
Top 3 – 40/100
Table Three:
1st – 7/100
2nd – 18/100
3rd – 11/100
Top 3 – 36/100
Total (percent won):
1st – 13 percent
2nd – 12.33 percent
3rd – 13 percent
Top 3 – 38.33 percent
Once again, the odds of claiming a top three pick drop a minimal amount – by roughly five percent (3.67 difference between 30th and 29th).
Let’s skip to 23rd – the eighth worst record to examine their odds.
23rd Place (6 percent chance to win first pick)
Table One:
1st – 5/100
2nd – 5/100
3rd – 4/100
Top 3 – 14/100
Table Two:
1st – 6/100
2nd – 11/100
3rd – 4/100
Top 3 – 21/100
Table Three:
1st – 11/100
2nd – 4/100
3rd – 10/100
Top 3 – 25/100
Total (percent won):
1st – 7.33 percent
2nd – 6.67 percent
3rd – 6 percent
Top 3 – 20 percent
Skipping five places down in the standings, and odds of grabbing a top three pick have only dropped by 18 percent from the third worst record (28th).
Lastly, we will examine the 17th placed team with the lowest odds of snagging a top three pick.
17th Place (1 percent chance to win first pick)
As you can see from the tables, 17th place was not drawn once in table one or three. They remarkably won first pick one time of a total 300 draws – their only time reaching the top three.
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Conclusion:
Changes that were made to the NHL Draft Lottery system were put in place to prevent teams from doing what Edmonton has done in recent history. The new format promises to ensure the odds of that happening again to be very slim. For the immediate future at least, the new format only works in the Oilers favor.
By attempting to prevent a team from winning the NHL Draft Lottery too many times, the league has put Edmonton in an advantageous position once again. They can have a strong final push down the stretch, finish in 26th, and still have a decent opportunity to claim top pick.
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Common sense could have addressed this. If you win top pick one or two times, you’re simply ineligible to qualify the following year. Now, if the Oilers win top pick again in 2016, the NHL will be forced to make changes once again to the format – which is unfortunate, because it seems they finally got things correct… one year too late.
So, while excitement continues to brew for fan bases in Toronto, Edmonton, and Buffalo over the idea of drafting Auston Matthews, those same fans need to face the reality that the 11 other teams have a decent opportunity as well. We shouldn’t be surprised if only one of those teams with top three odds is drawn.