Chicago Blackhawks F Marian Hossa: Project Helium – Regulated Plus/Minus
With two articles analyzing RPM under my belt, I have decided to switch positions. I compared two centers in the first two articles (Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron), and now I am going to move on to wingers. Speaking of Toews, I think it makes sense to evaluate a teammate, that being Chicago Blackhawks F Marian Hossa.
Hossa is one of the best two-way wingers in all of hockey. Regardless of his age, Hossa still provides the Blackhawks a steady player at both ends of the ice. As always when creating a RPM value for a player, I will award artificial statistics to Hossa randomly.
To see a season that Hossa has provided in the NHL, I will use the 2014-15 season. Here are his numbers from that year:
22 G, 39 A, 1 SHG, +17
Now, I am going to give Hossa statistics by chance. They will be similar to what he put up that season, however a bit different at the same time.
(To see what each variable represents, click on the link)
(Asterisk indicates artificial statistic)
Outside of variable “A” and “B”, all of the variables are weighted differently. To see what each variable is worth, click on the link.
Now, here are the variables which I am going to assign Marian Hossa by chance.
F- “fn” “fff”
After adding all the variables up, it totals to 14.125.
Before I go on, I want to acknowledge a mistake I made while adding up the first two RPM values. I shouldn’t have added “C” and “D” (they should have been subtracted), where I gave Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews a higher score than they should have. For reference, Bergeron’s RPM is actually 13.35, which is lower than what I said in last article (17.044 was the RPM value).
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Toews on the other hand has a RPM value of 21.336. Hossa still scores lower than both Toews and Bergeron, but keep in mind he scored less goals at even strength. Keep in mind that Chicago Blackhawks F Marian Hossa only scored one powerplay and shorthanded goal, which also hurt his score.
I found it interesting that considering Bergeron’s and Hossa’s RPM totals are fairly similar, their real NHL plus minus couldn’t have been more different. Even though both are good two-way forwards, Bergeron was +1 and Hossa was +17 for 2014-15.
Personally, without watching his line mates I am guessing that Bergeron’s teammates hurt his NHL plus/minus that season. I realize all RPM statistics are artificial, however I think that evaluating individual play in plus/minus is key to determining a players’ value (even though they are artificial I can get a basic idea based on a players level of talent).
To wrap this up, I want to say that I don’t think it is ever going to be 100% accurate doing it this way. However, I still think I can get a decent idea of reality based on the difference of NHL plus/minus and RPM. When I evaluate complete lines, the RPM values will get much higher, therefore things will get a bit more interesting. Until then, expect more individual player analysis.