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Winnipeg Jets G Ondrej Pavelec: Project Helium – Regulated Goalie Value

By Brian Draus |
Apr 7, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) defends goal against a shot by the San Jose Sharks in the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Winnipeg won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 7, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) defends goal against a shot by the San Jose Sharks in the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Winnipeg won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Winnipeg Jets G Ondrej Pavelec: Project Helium – Regulated Goalie Value (RGV) 1st Study

For those of you who remember the formula Regulated Plus/Minus (RPM), I used artificial statistics. Going into Regulated Goalie Value (RGV), I assumed there was no other way to give RGV a face. However, due to the fact that there is video online of NHL goals scored, it will be possible for me to put an actual value on RGV (for now).

I am sure you are wondering which goalie I will choose to do my first study on. Well, since the whole point on RGV is to regulate which goalie is actually better than his NHL goals against average, I chose Winnipeg Jets G Ondrej Pavelec.

Also, it is very difficult to run a study on a goalie over the course of an entire season, therefore I will start with just one game Pavelec played this season. The purpose of that is to get a comparison between Pavelec’s RGV and the NHL’s version of goals-against-average (GAA).

This study will involve a loss of Ondrej Pavelec’s. The first game will be a 6-3 loss to the Dallas Stars on November, 12th 2015.

The scoring recap (Dallas goals only)

Apr 9, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) covers up the puck during the second period against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Winnipeg Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) covers up the puck during the second period against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

(1st Pd)

2:32 PPG: M+E+E1+E2

12:38: J+J1

(2nd Pd)

3:17: A+A1

(3rd Pd)

14:05 PPG: J+J1+M+M3

18:46*
19:09*

*empty net goal, does not count against either GAA or RGV

More puck prose: Project Helium: Regulated Plus/Minus Review


Quick Reference to RGV Intro Article,

odd man rushes
(a)Clean Breakaway (0.735)

A1:+(0.03002) pressure from behind

(e) either face-off circle goals (0.992)

E1:+(-0.07041) score with defender screening goalie

E2:+(-0.00503) score with defender/offensive player tipping puck (you can add G1 and G2 together)

(j)In front of the net goals (0.8139) if take pass and score (no rebound) – any other goal in front counts as well

J1:+(-0.0301) score on first rebound

**(m)5 on 4(0.020021)

*M1:+(0.0608303) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Pd.

*M2:+(0.060903) if goal is given up in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd.

*M3:+(0.06093) if goal is given up in the last 10 minutes of the 3rd Pd. or OT

(Click the link to see what each variable (A-N) represents)

More puck prose: Project Helium: Positive Defensive Plays

More from Puck Prose

When I totaled the four goals up (six total, but two don’t count towards either GAA or RGV), Winnipeg Jets G Ondrej Pavelec had an RGV total of 3.3503 that game. It is interesting that his GAA would have been 4.00, almost .700 higher than this RGV. I understand that almost every goal scored in RGV is valued below one, but it is still an interesting find.

The number one area I may have to correct in regards to the formula is the Power Play variable. Since it should subtract from the value of the goal scored, it doesn’t make sense that I added value to the variable. The whole point of RGV is to show which goals given up should be penalized at a higher rate than others.

One problem I see is that I only have one variable valued above one. If that is the case (only neutral zone goals valued above one), it is very unlikely that a goalies RGV will be above his GAA ever. The whole point of the study was to show a goaltender that gave up easy goals instead of difficult goals. There is going to be some adjusting after the first several studies, but RGV will need a face before I make any changes.

Next: Project Helium: Carbon Block Review/Analysis

All in all, it is going to be significantly more accurate using statistics that are not artificial (even though they were close to a players value). I am going to have to go game-to-game in the beginning, just due to the complexity of RGV, but once I get some data I will begin to compare goalies. It is going to be game to game to start (for each goalie), and then I am going to compare different goalies. Everything is in flux right now, so stick around. More articles to come.

Source: www.nhl.com

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