New York Rangers G Henrik Lundqvist: GAVE Analytics

New York Rangers G Henrik Lundqvist: “Project Helium” Hockey Analytics – Goals Above Value Equalizer (GAVE) Study II

With one GAVE study under my belt, it is time to do another for New York Rangers G Henrik Lundqvist. However, unlike in the previous article, Lundqvist is not going to play well this time around.

The reason I am doing this is to discover what happens when a goalie allows more goals and doesn’t record as many saves. Let’s begin.

As I mentioned last time, there is an odd combination when it comes to the outcome of this formula and study. Since I can find the highlights of the goals online, however can’t watch the entire game, both results will not be exact.

In other words, only the goals allowed will be real, however the difficulty of saves will be artificial. While the area on the ice is artificial, the number of saves won’t be.

Now with that said, it is time to announce the game that I will study. The game was played on November 25^th, 2015. Lundqvist struggled against the Montreal Canadiens on this night, as the Rangers lost 5-1.

Everything in bold is an actual statistic, everything in italic is an artificial statistic

Click the link to see what each variable means

(1^st Pd)

goal allowed at 4:45 (H+H1)

Saves (9)

3 difficult, 3 average, 3 easy

(2^nd Pd)

goal allowed at 2:25 (H+H3)

Saves (7)

2 difficult, 1 average, 4 easy

(3^rd Pd)

goal allowed at 0:17 (H+H3)

goal allowed at 1:29 (I+I2)

goal allowed (PPG) at 9:06 (H+H3+H12(5 on4 PP))

Saves (3)

1 difficult, 1 average, 1 easy

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While last time around New York Rangers G Henrik Lundqvist scored well, this time he didn’t even break zero. His GAVE score was below one, checking in at -1.0428, which was a 7.3235 swing between the two scores (his value was 6.2807 last time around).

I am not shocked by the result that this study produced, mostly due to the fact he allowed five goals and only stopped 19 shots (was pulled in the 3^rd Pd). Last time around, Henrik Lundqvist saved more than double that and allowed only two goals.

To wrap this up, I think that GAVE is producing the results I wanted it to. As I have said before, this formula is supposed to have an element of WAR to it (from baseball) meaning that there should be a large difference in poor play and good play. I think that when a whole season is averaged out, the better goalies will score higher than the lesser ones.

Next: Henrik Lundqvist: GAVE Analytics - Study I

The main part I liked about the giant swing is that a terrible game has the ability to have a negative value, however a good game will score very well. I am going to test several goalies at both ends of the spectrum (goals allowed wise), not to mention when they allow the same amount of goals. In that case, the difference will be shots saved.

Look for another study in the near future.

source: http://rangers.nhl.com/