It’s been a bit of an unexpected ride for this Ottawa Senators team, a squad who will end up being one of the bigger surprises to make the playoffs in recent years. Does the team have a shot to hoist the Cup or will it be a first round exit?
Expectations at the Beginning of the Season
Well, to put it simply: the expectations weren’t very high. Multiple outlets predicted that the Ottawa Senators would finish near the bottom of an already weak Atlantic Division and miss the playoffs. In fact, in a season preview done by The Hockey News, the Senators were predicted to finish 7th in the Atlantic and had 55-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup.
Not much was expected of an offense that had scorers, but inconsistent ones at that. Bobby Ryan was looked upon as the forward to watch for, but even he wasn’t going to be able to get this team to the postseason alone.
The goaltending of Craig Anderson was predicted to be the bright spot, but a mediocre defense was going to always make his job more difficult than it needed to be.
Fast forward to April and, while some of these expectations had weight to them, the Ottawa Senators ultimately proved pundits wrong and are going to have a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup. Here’s why.
Biggest Strength: Goaltending
The Senators ended up being a much better team on defense and in goal than folks expected them to be. As of this writing, with two games remaining, Ottawa ranks 9th in the NHL in goals against, giving up 209 on the season. That’s an average of 2.61 goals per game. Not bad for a team with a defense that many called “porous.”
The goaltending of Craig Anderson has been predictably top notch this season. The 35-year-old is having one of his best years in terms of goals against average and save percentage. With a record of 24-11-4, he’s posted a 2.31 GAA and a .926 save percentage.
Anderson has five shutouts to his name and his RBS (Really Bad Starts) number sits at just four. A friendly reminder to those unfamiliar with RBS: it tallies the number of starts a goaltender has with a save percentage of less than .850.
The pleasant surprise for the Senators has been the backup goaltending of Mike Condon, who has also had a solid year in between the pipes. In his first year with Ottawa, Condon has had his ups and downs but has shown that he can help this team when need be.
Condon is 19-13-6 on the year with a 2.49 GAA and a .915 save percentage. His shutout number also sits at five, while his RBS number is a less impressive seven.
If the Senators make a run past the first round, you’d expect to see Condon for a game or two, and the confidence he’s gained from this season will be extremely important for this team.
Biggest Question Mark: Goal-Scoring
You might look at the top scorers on this team and think that the Ottawa Senators will be just fine on this front. However, when you look at the team as a whole, Ottawa hasn’t blown anyone away with its goal-scoring prowess.
The Senators rank 21st in the NHL in goals this season. Averaging about 2.59 per game, Ottawa actually has a minus-two goal differential for the year.
This doesn’t mean the team lacks scorers because that’s just not true. Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, and Mike Hoffman all have 20-plus on the year and defenseman/captain Erik Karlsson has 17 himself.
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Turris has been an impressive first-line center, leading the way with Stone and Hoffman on his wings. Turris has 27 goals and 28 assists on the year. He can be a streaky player at times, however. He has 34 games this season without a single point. The good news is that he doesn’t have a scoreless streak of more than four games, so he has the ability to bounce back quickly.
Mark Stone is crucial to Ottawa playing on Stone’s right side. Stone has 22 goals and 30 assists in 70 games this year. He’s important for the Senators’ puck possession, as his Corsi For% sits at an impressive 54.2%
Finally, Mike Hoffman is a great asset to have on the left of that first line or taking the center position on the second line if need be. He has 25 goals and 35 assists in 73 games this season.
The question marks don’t really fall on that first line, but on the other nine forwards that need to possess the puck and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Those lines combine to have just five players with double-figures in goals and, the guy people expected to see big numbers from, Bobby Ryan, hasn’t had a great year.
Ryan has 12 goals and 12 assists and doesn’t have a single point in his last 12 games. He’ll need to be heard from much more in the playoffs in order to provide relief when that first line is off the ice.
Why Ottawa Senators Can Win the Cup
The Ottawa Senators have a great top line with Turris, Stone, and Hoffman. They have a leader and solid offensive defenseman in Erik Karlsson who can help generate the offense that the bottom six often can’t provide. And the consistent goaltending from both Craig Anderson and Mike Condon are vital, especially when that offense is struggling to light the lamp.
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The Senators will certainly rely a lot on the defense and goaltending and, if that works well for them, Ottawa has a chance to push far into the playoffs. However, the offense will have to perform well though in order to go all the way and lift that Stanley Cup.