Merely hours after his Minnesota Wild were eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs by the St. Louis Blues, starting goaltender Devan Dubnyk found out that he was not a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. Let’s discuss why.
For the majority of the season, Minnesota Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk was phenomenal. He was a stone wall in goal that was helping his team lead the Central Division over the Chicago Blackhawks while having a goals against average of under 2.00 and showing the league that his Wild squad might have a real chance in the playoffs this season.
As far as pundits were concerned, the frontrunners for the Vezina Trophy — given each year to the NHL goaltender “adjudged to be the best at this position” — were Dubnyk, Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Montreal’s Carey Price. For a good amount of the season, many were saying it was Dubynk, especially after Bobrovsky’s slump in January.
Unfortunately, as it is with most of the NHL’s awards, recency bias had an effect on Dubynk’s candidacy and, on Saturday evening, it was revealed that he was not one of the three finalists for the award.
End of Season Slump
It makes sense when you like at the last month of his season plus the disappointing first round playoff exit. The folks who decide on these award winners have always had a short memory, so it benefits candidates for any award to have better ends to their seasons than beginnings. Dubynk had the opposite.
After the Minnesota Wild’s February bye week, the team spent the last month of the season in a huge slump, relinquishing the Central Division’s top spot to the Blackhawks during that stretch (the Wild finished three points behind Chicago).
In that final stretch, the Minnesota Wild finished 10-11-2, with both offense and defense struggling to play the way they did for the first three-quarters of the year. During the slump, Devan Dubynk was 8-8-2 with one “no decision” in a game against the rival Blackhawks where he allowed two goals on the first two shots he faced.
By the Numbers
There’s no question that his final 19 games had a negative effect on his Vezina Trophy candidacy. During that stretch, he allowed 2.53 goals per game, essentially 0.6 goals above his average for the majority of the season. While he struggled in the last month, eventual finalists Bobrovsky, Holtby, and Price played some of their best games in goal and the end of season numbers show it. Here are the four — including Dubnyk’s — final regular season stats:
- Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ) – .931 save percentage / 2.06 GAA / 7 shutouts
- Braden Holtby (WSH) – .925 save percentage / 2.07 GAA / 9 shutouts
- Carey Price (MTL) – .923 save percentage / 2.23 GAA / 3 shutouts
- Devan Dubynk (MIN) – .923 save percentage / 2.25 GAA / 5 shutouts
Frankly, from numbers alone, it looks like Dubnyk should be the slight favorite over Price but the recency bias comes into play here. As mentioned earlier, Dubnyk finished 8-8-2 in his last 18 decisions. Carey Price finished the year 12-6-0 in his last 18. In those 18, he allowed just 31 total goals — a phenomenal 1.72 goals against average.
Next: Boston's Sean Kuraly Saves Season.
There’s no doubt that this final quarter or so of the regular season catapulted Price over Dubnyk. Whether you agree with the decision or not, there’s no doubt that the NHL’s penchant for recognizing recent success and having a short memory have an effect on these awards. This year’s Vezina finalists are no exception to that.
It’s unfortunate that the Minnesota Wild had their struggles in the last few weeks of the season because it cost their goaltender a shot at the Vezina Trophy. This is a not so friendly reminder that recency bias is legitimate and affects your favorite players come award season.