NHL Expansion Draft: Detroit Red Wings Protection Strategy
Welcome back to Puck Prose’s series on individual teams protection strategies. In this one, who do the Detroit Red Wings protect in the NHL Expansion Draft? Their old guys with heavy contracts? Or the young guys who look to be the future?
The Detroit Red Wings have a decision to make during the NHL Expansion Draft. Protect the guys who had them make a 25-year playoff run? Or protect the new guys who could help them to another Cup? Do they place priority on guys like Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall? Or do they favor Danny DeKeyser and Dylan Larkin?
Detroit Forwards
Forwards available in the NHL expansion draft: Henrik Zetterberg, Frans Nielsen, Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou
NMC: Frans Nielsen
Nielsen was signed in the offseason and knew to get a deal from Detroit. If he didn’t want to stay near the Upper Peninsula, he would not have made the contract stipulation be part of it. Detroit also knew to keep Nielsen around for longer. Nielsen had 41 points, including 17 goals. Even at 33, that’s worth keeping around.
Guaranteed Safe: Anthony Mantha, Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist
Mantha isn’t a restricted free agent until 2018. He scored the third most goals (tied) and the fifth most points. He’s only 22. Tatar is a restricted free agent who scored the most goals out of all Red Wings this last season. Zetterberg is the Red Wings captain who represents their dynasty past. He also scored the most points. Nyquist scored the second most points and still missed six games.
Highly Likely to be Safe: Andreas Athanasiou
Athanasiou is a restricted free agent this season. But he’s 22, scored the second most goals on the Red Wings, and gives Dylan Larkin a run for his money in terms of speed. That’s great traits for the Red Wings, who should look to get faster, younger, and more skilled. Start with Athanasiou, Mantha, and Larkin and you can’t really go wrong.
Likely Safe: Darren Helm
This is a point of personal preference. It comes down to Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader. Both are 30 years of age, the difference is that Abdelkader scored four more points… in fourteen more games. And that’s the difference. Helm’s points per game were better and he plays a cleaner, more well-rounded game.
Red Wings Defensemen
Available defensemen: Mike Green, Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Nick Jensen, Xavier Ouellet, Dylan McIlrath
Guaranteed: Danny DeKeyser
DeKeyser is 27, and won’t be an unrestricted free agent until 2022. He’s only paid five million, and he played 21 minutes a night last season. He had the fourth-most points out of all Detroit Red Wing defensemen over the last season and had the most shifts per game. Didn’t miss a game, either.
Highly Likely to Be Safe: Mike Green
Mike Green played the most minutes a night out of any Red Wing this last season. He will be a free agent next season, but he played the best out of all Red Wing defensemen. He’s only 31 and is likely to be re-signed by the Red Wings. Green actually had the sixth-most points out of all Red Wings, including 14 goals. The next closest was Nick Jensen, with roughly one-third of the points.
Likely Safe: Nick Jensen
Because of injuries, only three Detroit Red Wings played all 82 games. Jensen wasn’t one of them, playing only 49. The Red Wings brought him up in December, and then never sent him down. In Jensen’s first NHL season, he played nearly eighteen minutes a night, scored 13 points, and had a better offensive point share than both Niklas Kronwall and Xavier Ouellet. I like Jensen for the future of the Red Wings, though it makes sense if Detroit rolls with Ouellet as safe in the NHL expansion draft.
Goaltenders and Exempt Players
Goaltenders Available: Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, Jared Coreau
Detroit Protects: Jimmy Howard
Look, I know Jimmy Howard is 33, and I know he’s the only one out of this group who becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of his current contract. I know he has a history of inconsistency and couldn’t stay healthy this season. But he’s the only Detroit Red Wing who played in an acceptable fashion this season.
He had his first good season since 2012-13, and his 24 started games were the best for the Red Wings. Two-thirds of his starts were quality, as he posted his best year ever. It’s Howard for me. And the Golden Knights can’t take both Coreau and Mrazek in the NHL expansion draft.
List of exempt players: Dylan Larkin, Evgeny Svechnikov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Joe Hicketts.
Vegas’s Selection
List of all exposed players: Justin Abdelkader, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Xavier Ouellet, Dylan McIlrath, Petr Mrazek, Jared Coreau.
Next: Stanley Cup Playoff Power Rankings
This leaves Vegas with a few good options in the NHL expansion draft. If they want to go young, they can take a look at Luke Glendening, Xavier Ouellet, or Petr Mrazek. If they want some experience, they have the option of either Abdelkader or Kronwall.
Both of these later guys are expensive and are not worth the cost associated with the performance. Kronwall is not the defenseman he once was. Abdelkader was never the forward he is paid to be.
Still, the young guys are all good options. Ouellet is a good defensive defenseman, one who can develop quite nicely without a lot of pressure on him in the short term. Mrazek is a goaltender with the potential to be a starter, but would likely flourish as a backup and continue to develop. Glendening is a good depth forward, but that may be all he is.
Out of this group, I’m taking Xavier Ouellet as a restricted free agent in the NHL expansion draft. Vegas should pay him some money to be a top four defenseman, and then let him either play as the defensive defenseman or allow him to be on the third pair for a year. Then Vegas should promote Ouellet back to a bigger role after he’s developed more.