Chicago Blackhawks: 2017 Season Preview, Predictions
The Chicago Blackhawks’ dynasty status is at stake in 2017-18.
The NHL has made it very hard for teams to be consistently good. So far, the Chicago Blackhawks, despite various obstacles, have gamed the system. They have won three Stanley Cups in the 21st century, tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the most.
However, the Blackhawks haven’t won a title since 2014-15. It was after this championship many started calling the Hawks a dynasty. At the time, they weren’t wrong. Three titles in six seasons is pretty darn impressive. But with the Penguins winning back-to-back championships, something even the Blackhawks never did, the dynasty could be ending soon.
As usual, Chicago had to make some very tough moves during the offseason. 2015-16 Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin got traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for old friend Brandon Saad. Longtime blue line pillar Niklas Hjalmarsson got moved to the Arizona Coyotes for Connor Murphy. Finally, reliable backup goaltender Scott Darling got an overdue pay raise from the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Blackhawks are no strangers to these offseason moves. It’s become a bit of a tradition in Chicago. That’s the price the Blackhawks pay for winning three championships and wanting to add a fourth. So far, Chicago has been able to maintain success despite constant roster shuffling.
The 2017-18 season is a vital and critical one for the Blackhawks. They are coming off consecutive first round exits in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their most recent one was a sweep at the hands of the eventual Western Conference champion Nashville Predators.
If improvements aren’t made, there could be some more serious changes coming. And for a roster with an aging core, that’s pretty concerning. It will be up to their usual core of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Corey Crawford to lead the team in the playoffs once again.
Offseason Review
If the Chicago Blackhawks offseason had a theme song, it would without question be Thin Lizzy’s “Boys Are Back In Town”. Because the Hawks are bringing back two forwards who helped them become a dynasty. Ironically, both left because of salary cap concerns.
Brandon Saad was a favorite of Toews. The center did extremely well with the two-way forward flanking him. Their chemistry is a huge reason they won the 2015 Stanley Cup. Toews went through a revolving door of young wings last season.
Perhaps Marian Hossa‘s allergy to hockey equipment forced the Blackhawks’ hand. Though Chicago lost Kane’s wingman in Panarin, the team has to be happy Saad’s back. In this trade, they also got Anton Forsberg, who hopes to replace Darling as Crawford’s backup.
Patrick Sharp is a legend in Chicago. Not just for his dashing looks and impeccable charisma, but for being a clutch player. Sharp scored countless huge goals for the Blackhawks from 2006 to 2015. After a stint with the Dallas Stars, he’s back. However, Sharp isn’t the same guy he was in 2015. His body has broken down a bit. But it never hurts to get back one of head coach Joel Quenneville‘s favorite players.
Hjalmarsson being traded for Murphy is a slightly baffling move. It wasn’t a cap move, as their cap hits are roughly similar. Also, Hjalmarsson was a very important stay at home defenseman for the Blackhawks. Murphy, thus far, has been decent in his NHL career, but that’s it.
The Blackhawks also brought in several depth forwards, with Lance Bouma and Tommy Wingels being the most notable.
Forwards
The Chicago Blackhawks have relied heavily on Toews and Kane in the past. While the former is a great shutdown center, the latter is an elite offensive player. This won’t change in 2017-18, as the Blackhawks depth isn’t ideal. But the two have proven they can carry the team. Getting Saad back helps Toews, but losing Panarin could hurt Kane.
Projected Forward Lines
Line combinations via Daily Faceoff, roster via Cap Friendly.
Saad – Toews – Richard Panik
Sharp – Nick Schmaltz – Kane
Ryan Hartman – Artem Anisimov – Wingels
Bouma – Tanner Kero – Tomas Jurco
Extra forward candidates: Vinnie Hinostroza, John Hayden, Laurent Dauphin
On the rise: Alex Debrincat, Matthew Highmore
Anismov centered the second forward line last season. However, Schmaltz did rather well with Kane and the Blackhawks liked what they saw from him. So it wouldn’t be surprising if Quenneville starts with Schmaltz centering the second line. Especially with a proven “plan B” in Anisimov.
Panik emerged last season as Toews’ most consistent line mate not named Hossa. He had 47 career points before last season and ended it with 91. Panik set career highs with 22 goals and 22 assists. This earned him a nice pay raise, as he got a two-year extension with an annual cap hit of $2.8 million.
Hartman will be relied on to help drive the third line. He showed a lot of potential last season and earned Quenneville’s trust. Hartman will have a larger role this season and could be the Chicago Blackhawks’ plan B for Sharp.
One very fascinating storyline in training camp and preseason will be seeing Debrincat try to earn a roster spot. He’s unquestionably talented as a goal scorer. However, Debrincat is also very raw defensively. However, his incredible offensive abilities might make it impossible to keep him off the NHL roster. Long term, Debrincat could be a Panarin replacement.
Highmore is someone who the Blackhawks could turn to if they need a little more scoring. This will be his first season in the AHL, but he’s coming off an impressive QMJHL career.
Defensemen
For the past few years, the Chicago Blackhawks defense has relied heavily on three defensemen. Keith, Brent Seabrook and Hjalmarsson. With the third now gone, the onus falls on the first two to continue to play at a high level. It’s worth noting Seabrook is already starting a visible decline. Murphy is an important piece moving forward.
Projected Defensive Pairings
Keith – Seabrook
Michal Kempny – Murphy
Gustav Forsling – Michal Rozsival
Extra defenseman candidates: Ville Pokka, Viktor Svedberg
The top pairing will have to handle a ton of minutes. This is nothing new for the duo, but considering Keith is 33 and Seabrook is 31, it’s not ideal. One has to wonder how many more minutes they have left in them. But until Keith and Seabrook prove otherwise, it’s reasonable to expect them to be minutes eating defensemen.
Kempny will likely be the guy who steps up in the top four to replace Hjalmarsson. He played just under 15 minutes per game last season, so this is a pretty significant increase in minutes for him. However, Kempny has been very impressive as far as possession in his limited sample size, so perhaps the promotion is warranted.
Forsling finally seems to have an unobstructed path to a regular spot in the Chicago Blackhawks lineup. He’s a talented puck mover and the 2017-18 season could be a breakout season for him. Rozsival, due to Quenneville’s familiarity with him, likely gets the nod for sixth defensemen spot. Pokka should push him, though.
Goaltenders
The Chicago Blackhawks have needed Crawford to step up in recent years thanks to a depleted blue line. He has been up to the task so far, proving he’s more than just a product of Toews and Kane. Howver, Crawford took a step back last season. After two consecutive seasons with at least a .920 save percentage, he declined to a .918 save percentage. Also, Crawford’s 55 starts in 2016-17 are tied for his fewest in a full season as a starter.
He’s on the wrong side of 30 too, as he’ll turn 33 in December. Old age catches up to all goalies eventually. The Blackhawks are hoping Crawford can evade its grasp for another season. Because if he falters, they don’t have many options to replace him.
Forsberg was often thought of as the lesser of the Blue Jackets’ top two goalie prospects. He finally gets a chance to stick in the NHL with the Blackhawks and perhaps prove he’s just as good as Joonas Korpisalo, if not better. In 10 career NHL games, Forsberg has a .879 save percentage, which isn’t too encouraging. Jean-Francois Berube, who fans might know as the third New York Islanders goalie, is a decent depth option. However, he’s unproven as a starter.
Outlook
The Chicago Blackhawks will always have a chance as long as their core remains productive. However, they’ve lost a critical member in Hossa. He was a calming influence on them and he was a consistent producer. Anytime you lose a future Hall of Fame player, it’s going to hurt. Saad will certainly help ease the pain, but the loss of Hossa is still significant.
It’s up to Kane to be productive without his perfect complementary partner in Panarin. Schmaltz could help replace him right now, but looking at the Blackhawks center depth, he’s absolutely needed at center. Ideally, he’d be at wing with Anismiov at center. But this is far from an ideal world.
Prediction
If the Chicago Blackhawks can stay healthy, they’re likely a playoff team. However, it won’t be as easy as it has been in recent years. They likely won’t win the Central Division like they did last year. And with the Blackhawks’ less than optimal depth, a significant injury could put them to the test.
However, making the postseason probably isn’t enough for Chicago. They’ve got to do something once they get there. With an aging core, this might be their last stand. Changes could be coming if the Blackhawks don’t make it out of the first round. And even if they do, that might not be enough.