Montreal Canadiens: Examining Early Offensive Concerns

How concerned should Montreal Canadiens fans be about the team’s early scoring struggles?

The Montreal Canadiens have been strong starters in recent years. Over the past three seasons (2014-15 through 2016-17), in their first 10 games (30 games overall), they’ve scored 97 goals. During this time, the Canadiens went 26-3-1.

It’s still early, but Montreal is off to a much different start so far in the 2017-18 season. They’re off to a 1-2-0 start, which isn’t the end of the world. However, the Canadiens have only scored three goals. They might be listed as having four goals, which technically, they do. However, it’s worth noting one of those goals was given for winning a shootout. So the Canadiens have only put the puck into the net during play three times.

This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After all, the Canadiens were a middle of the pack team on offense in 2016-17, scoring 226 goals (15th in the NHL). Taking away shootout goals, they scored 223 goals. The average NHL team scored 227 goals after the same adjustment.

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Montreal lost 24 goals between the departures of Nathan Beaulieu, Andrei Markov and Alexander Radulov. The additions of Karl Alzner, Jonathan Drouin, Ales Hemsky and Mark Streit gave them 25 goals. So that’s roughly breaking even and not really solving the issues from last season.

The loss of Markov has been the most painful thus far. He might have been old, but he could still operate a power play at an impressive level. And even though Markov was noticeably slower last season, he was still an excellent playmaker. 30 assists in 62 games is great for a defenseman. Without Markov, the Canadiens defense has suffered offensively.

Montreal has yet to score on the power play this season, despite having nine opportunities. Perhaps the loss of Markov and Radulov has hurt them there. But there are some encouraging numbers on the power play.

Scoring is obviously better than not scoring. However, the Canadiens power play has arguably been more efficient in a three-game sample size than they were last season. CorsiFor/60 refers to shot attempts per hour. Expected goals (or xGF) is a relatively new stat and you can read up on it here. Shots For/60 refers to shots on goal per hour.

At even strength, the Canadiens have scored just two goals (though some Habs fans might tell you they scored two against the New York Rangers). Both of them were against the Buffalo Sabres. The Canadiens’ lone goal against the Washington Capitals happened while shorthanded. Let’s take a deeper look at their even strength numbers.

CorsiFor percentage (CF percentage) is the percentage of shot attempts for, compared to shot attempts against. While it is far from a perfect stat, it has proven to be a predictive stat, last season notwithstanding. Expected Goals percentage (xGF percentage) is similar but uses expected goals instead of shot attempts.

Montreal has been great so far at possession, even if you adjust for score. In context, sure, their lack of finishing ability is a bit concerning. It has to improve in order for the Canadiens to start winning consistently. And fans can expect them to start scoring goals. It’s rare for a player to have a 2.7 percent shooting percentage, let alone an entire team. But that’s what the Canadiens are shooting right now.

Next: 3 Burning Questions For The Canadiens

Carey Price’s performance on Sunday should be encouraging, as he stopped 23 of 25 shots. This came 24 hours after a disastrous night against the red-hot Capitals. As a whole, the team has been better than their 1-2-0 record might suggest. Hockey can be cruel at times, but things tend to even themselves out. The Canadiens should start scoring sooner rather than later.

Stats courtesy of Hockey Reference and Corsica.

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