NHL Awards: Top 5 Norris Trophy Candidates
With the 2017-18 NHL season about 25 percent done, let’s take a look at the top five Norris Trophy candidates.
American Thanksgiving tends to be a good measuring stick for the NHL Awards. By that time, just about every team has played at least 20 games. This means the season is roughly 25 percent over, give or take. It’s now appropriate to start considering who the award winners should be. And the Norris Trophy figures to be a pretty tough competition.
Erik Karlsson’s injury to start the season has let several defensemen enter the competition. However, the Ottawa Senators captain has been extremely impressive despite having to give everyone else a head start. Let’s take a look at the top five Norris contenders.
Victor Hedman
The argument for: Yes, Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning is off to a slow start. But anyone who thinks he’s out of the race should return to the loony bin from which they escaped from. Hedman is an elite talent, and a bad 20 game stretch doesn’t change that. As recently as last season, people saw him as one of the NHL’s top three defensemen. Even with “just” 15 points in 20 games, that’s still pretty darn impressive. At any given moment, Hedman could get hot and remind everyone why he was a Norris Trophy Finalist last season.
The argument against: So maybe there’s a little bit more to this slow start of his than just his points. Hedman has always been incredibly solid as far as possession numbers. The Lightning have been a much better team with him on the ice over the past three seasons. But this year? Hedman’s expected goals for percentage and CorsiFor percentage are very low.
Frankly, it’s not too hard to see why. His two most common partners? Jake Dotchin (a young defenseman) and Dan Girardi (a proven possession anchor). Is it Hedman’s fault he’s struggling? Perhaps, but yeesh, there are some things involved in the slow start that Victor can’t control.
Outlook: Hedman deserves a long leash because he’s proven to be such an impressive talent. But he has to get out of this rut soon if he wants to win his first Norris Trophy.
John Klingberg
The argument for: Usually, Karlsson is pulling away in the points race amongst defensemen by now. But shockingly, John Klingberg of the Dallas Stars is the current leader, with 19 points in 20 games. Points matter a lot in the Norris race these days, so the young Swedish defenseman is definitely in the running.
Dallas Stars
Klingberg has been the best Stars defenseman by a pretty good margin. It’s telling that he’s never really had a consistent partner, splitting time between Marc Methot and Esa Lindell. Yet Klingberg is still an impressively dominant defenseman on offense.
The argument against: The biggest question is who’s going to be his partner moving forward? It’s probably going to be Lindell, as Methot’s recent injury should keep him out for several weeks, perhaps months. That’s a REALLY good thing for Klingberg if the former will be his primary partner moving forward.
Entering Tuesday, the pairing has been dominant, no matter which metrics you use. The Stars significantly outscore their opponents when Klingberg and Lindell are together. And their expected goals for numbers are quite impressive. Lindell is good, but it’s fairly obvious Klingberg’s the driver of that pairing. Nothing against Esa, though. He’s at least a productive passenger. The kind of one who gives you good tunes and conversation.
Outlook: It’s simple. If Klingberg spends a lot of time with Lindell, he might well win the Norris Trophy. But if he doesn’t, he won’t. Do the right thing, Ken Hitchcock.
Roman Josi
The argument for: Roman Josi is putting very impressive point totals, which isn’t surprising. That has been his calling card for the past few seasons. In 17 games this season, Josi has 14 points. It’s worth noting he missed several games due to an injury. The Predators are a team who rely on their blueline to be productive, and Josi is certainly a guy who can take advantage of that.
If you create a “checklist” of things you want to see in a Norris contender, he has a lot of them. Points? Check. Plays during all situations? Check. Faces tough competition? Check. Gobbles up minutes like Pac-man? Check.
More from Editorials
- The problem with another expansion franchise in the NHL
- Should the NHL make referees give postgame interviews?
- Why Carolina Hurricanes fans should be excited for the 2023-24 season
- Should The Seattle Kraken Consider Trading Shane Wright?
- Why any NHL team would be lucky to add Phil Kessel to their roster
Josi’s possession game has usually been a weakness for him. But so far, he ranks third among all defensemen in relative expected goals for percentage. As of Nov. 21, Josi’s relative CorsiFor percentage is over 10 percent, which shows the Predators are generally a much better team when he’s on the ice.
The argument against: The perception of Josi is that he’s a great, but not elite, defenseman. Why that is, I don’t know. Josi consistently puts up points at a rate that puts him among the cream of the crop. Maybe his bad possession numbers have hurt him. Also, Josi has this teammate named P.K. Subban who is thought of very highly. And rightfully so. Can Josi emerge from his shadow? He has so far.
Outlook: I’d give Josi good chances of winning if he keeps this up. One thing to watch, though – will Ryan Ellis’ return be a good thing or bad thing for Roman? He’s done darn well with Mattias Ekholm, whose defensive game seems to perfectly complement Mr. Josi and his gifts with the puck. But will Ellis be with Roman once he comes back? It’s worth noting Ekholm and Subban were an elite shutdown pairing during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so that’s probably something Peter Laviolette wants to bring back.
Alex Pietrangelo
The case for: No one has benefitted more from Karlsson’s unfortunate injury than Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues. He’s tied with Klingberg for the NHL lead among defensemen with 19 points (though he has played a game more than the Stars defenseman). Pietrangelo leads his peers with seven goals.
Not only that, his defensive numbers look impressive, at least on paper. Pietrangelo has a plus-minus of +8, which is among the league leaders. While his possession numbers (0.97 relative CorsiFor percentage) aren’t outstanding, they’re probably good enough considering his production to be a serious Norris contender.
More from Puck Prose
- Detroit Red Wings 2023 Rookie Camp Has Plenty of Ups and Downs
- This Columbus Blue Jackets rookie doesn’t want to be forgotten
- 2 trades the Boston Bruins must make to secure the Stanley Cup
- 3 reasons the Avalanche won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
- This is a big year for Alex Turcotte and the Los Angeles Kings
The case against: Is Pietrangelo’s start sustainable? He has been a pretty lucky guy so far. First off, let’s start with the 10.1 percent shooting percentage. Defensemen don’t do that. Especially ones who generate a lot of shots on goal. That’s going to fall, no doubt.
The question is, how much? And will it drop to the point that it makes him look bad? His career shooting percentage is 5.7 percent. Last year, it was over seven percent. If it falls to the latter, that should be fine. But if it falls to the former, that’s going to hurt.
Also, there’s his expected goals for percentage. The Blues have gotten outstanding goaltending so far, so it’s not a huge surprise that only one Blues defenseman is in the green in this category (Colton Parayko). However, Pietrangelo ranks last among all St. Louis defensemen with at least 100 minutes played.
Outlook: Pietrangelo is going to be a Norris Trophy finalist unless something goes awry. But he didn’t do enough with the head start Karlsson gave him.
Erik Karlsson
The argument for: This shouldn’t surprise anyone, but Erik Karlsson has been by a wide margin been the best defensemen in the NHL since coming back. He leads all blueliners in points per game with 17 points in 14 games. Karlsson only has one goal, and that won’t remain true for much longer.
We all know Karlsson is a human cheat code at passing, so his assist per game ratio is likely somewhat sustainable. Once his goals pick up, that should help negate any decline in assists. Karlsson plays a ton of minutes, which is a must for any Norris Trophy candidate. It’s freaking incredible he’s doing this after returning from a major surgery. And this isn’t even the first time he’s done it.
Defensively, Karlsson’s looking fantastic. The Senators’ goaltending hasn’t been very strong this season, and sadly, it’s making him look bad. Karlsson has a -3 plus-minus rating, but considering his high relative expected goals for percentage, that should change.
The argument against: Karlsson has proven to be prone to injuries. Can he stay healthy? If Karlsson can, the award should be his. At the very least, he’ll be a finalist once again.
Next: Each NHL Team As A Thanksgiving Dish
Outlook: Karlsson is the Norris Trophy favorite. Someone’s going to have to wrestle it away from him. And considering he’s starting to distance himself from the pack as far as production per game, good luck stopping him.