Ottawa Senators Have Already Lost The Matt Duchene Trade

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN - NOVEMBER 11: Matt Duchene
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN - NOVEMBER 11: Matt Duchene

It’s only been eight games but the early returns suggest the Ottawa Senators have already lost the Matt Duchene trade.

When the Ottawa Senators traded for Matt Duchene, they essentially pushed all their chips into the middle of the table. The trade signified going all-in on contending this season and the 2018-19 season. Ottawa paid a high price to acquire the center trading away Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, prospect Shane Bowers, a 2018 first-round draft pick, and a 2019 third-round draft pick.

So far, all the Senators have gotten from Duchene is a single goal and a plus-minus rating of -10. This is on top of a six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Turris has fit in perfectly with the Nashville Predators, recording six points in eight games along with a plus-minus rating of +3.

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One of the problems with acquiring Duchene is he’s a speedy offensive player while Ottawa is a slow defensive team with the exception of Erik Karlsson. Coach Guy Boucher’s system does not allow for Duchene to be creative offensively. Instead, it puts extreme limitations on everything that makes him so dangerous.

Duchene is a player who’d thrive in the run-and-gun style seen in the regular season for years by a team like the Washington Capitals. Instead, he’s being handcuffed by not only his coach but his lack of line mates who can’t keep up with him. As one of the fastest skaters in the league, the Senators have very few, if any, forwards who can match his skating ability.

Although Mike Hoffman, Matt Stone, and Bobby Ryan are proven goal scorers, it’s hard to develop chemistry when they can’t keep with Duchene on the ice. On a smaller scale, it’s a similar problem Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid have had throughout their careers.

It also hasn’t helped that Duchene doesn’t do the little things defensively that Turris was known for. It’s one thing to not get anything offensively out of Duchene. But when the team has gotten worse defensively, it begins to explain Ottawa’s current six-game losing streak.

To make matters worse, Duchene is a free agent after the 2018-19 season. It’s hard to imagine he’d want to continue to play in Boucher’s defensive system. Also, it’s equally hard to imagine the Senators would want to pay Duchene to stick around unless his game completely turns around.  And who knows if they will be able to afford him, even if they want to keep him?

Even if the Senators became desperate, the team is about to run into cap trouble in the next two seasons. Ottawa will have to pay Stone and Cody Ceci after this season as both will be restricted free agents at the end of the year. After next season, not only is Duchene a free agent, but Karlsson will also be an unrestricted free agent. Plus, Ottawa will still have the horrible contracts from Ryan and Dion Phaneuf still on the books for at least the next three years.

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With cap room quickly evaporating, no first or second round draft picks in the 2018 draft, and barely any offensive output so far from Duchene, the Senators are in a tough position. A position that is beginning to question why a defensive team with a stubborn defensive coach chose to pay such a high price for offensive player known for poor defensive play.