New York Islanders: Evaluating Nick Leddy’s Norris Trophy Chances

Don’t look now, but New York Islanders defenseman Nick Leddy is quietly building a really strong case for the Norris Trophy. 

The Norris Trophy race is wide open. Perennial favorite Erik Karlsson is slumping along with his team. He hasn’t put up a point in over 240 minutes. The Senators are spiraling downward. This leaves the Norris race without a true favorite for the time being. But New York Islanders defenseman Nick Leddy should change that quickly.

This offseason, the Islanders traded Travis Hamonic for several reasons. One of them was they were confident their blue line was deep enough to replace him. Leddy’s taken over Hamonic’s role as the top defenseman and is flourishing in it.

Leddy should be on everyone’s Norris Trophy contenders list. But naturally, everyone would rather discuss John Tavares and his potential free agency. So let’s evaluate Leddy’s case for winning the Norris Trophy through the first two months of the season.

Production

The role of defensemen has changed drastically. In today’s game, blueliners are expected to contribute on the offensive end. Among defensemen with at least 20 games played, Leddy’s 0.85 points per game trails only John Klingberg. Even if you look at even strength points per hour, he ranks fourth among defensemen with at least 300 even strength minutes.

But let’s be honest. Secondary assists tend to be far less meaningful than primary assists and goals. Primary points (first assists and goals) are far more relevant to the conversation. Leddy’s 1.27 primary points per hour at even strength rank second as of Dec. 7.

Possession

Points aren’t all that matter when evaluating defensemen. Blueliners are still expected to hold their own defensively. This is where Leddy’s case suffers a little bit. His possession numbers (relative Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage) are a bit lacking. But the good things is, Leddy’s not a huge drag in either category.

Analytics are steadily becoming an important part of the conversation, but many Norris voters are still bullish at best with advanced stats. Leddy has an even plus-minus rating, but that’s more of an indictment on how bad the Islanders’ goaltenders have been. The Isles goalies have a 90.98 save percentage with him on the ice, the sixth-lowest among Isles’ defensemen.

The Verdict

Leddy’s got a darn good shot at becoming the first Islanders defenseman since Denis Potvin to win the Norris Trophy. Especially with no obvious favorite. But if he wants to separate himself from a crowded group that includes Alex Pietrangelo, John Klingberg, and Roman Josi, along with perenial contender Drew Doughty, Leddy must improve his possession numbers. There’s still plenty of time for him to do that.

Since production is his strongest argument for winning the Norris, he’s got to keep putting up numbers. The Islanders offense is good enough to be an offensive juggernaut, so expect Leddy’s production to continue.

Next: 3 Bold Predictions For The Islanders

Should the Isles finish in the top three of the Metropolitan Division, that will definitely help his chances. Leddy’s got a good chance of winning, but so do a number of his peers. The first one to separate themselves from the pack is likely going to win.