New York Islanders: John Tavares future likely depends on arena deal

There’s a good reason why New York Islanders captain John Tavares hasn’t signed his long-awaited extension. It’s most likely tied to the Islanders complicated arena deal.

The dominant storyline in any given NHL season revolves around the Toronto Maple Leafs and the top free agent. In 2015-16, it was Steven Stamkos. 2016-17 saw Joe Thornton in the storylines. This season, New York Islanders captain John Tavares has been the subject of a lot of speculation.

To his credit, JT hasn’t given in yet. He’s been adamant for a very long time he’s committed to the Islanders. Tavares has a great thing going with the Isles. He loves playing for them, understands it’s a privilege to wear the sweater, and wants to be a part of a Stanley Cup winner.

This begs the question, why hasn’t Tavares, who is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2017-18 season, signed an extension yet? Are his words of promise hollow? This is a possibility and it’s the simplest answer. But it’s probably not the right one. There’s another factor that could be in play – the Islanders never-ending battle to find a home.

It’s Complicated

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Tavares really wants to stay with the Islanders. But like any person who competes at the highest level, he wants two things. First, Tavares wants to win. Secondly, he wants to get paid (you can swap those two priorities if you wish). Tavares is going to have a great opportunity to win with the Islanders.

Let’s suppose the salary cap ceiling is $80 million. Tavares could ask for a max deal, but he’s not getting more than Connor McDavid (Peter Chiarelli helps out the Islanders once again!). $10 million is a nice estimate, give or take $1 million. Assuming it’s the first, that’s 12.5 percent of the Islanders cap space. Perfectly acceptable for an elite center. And as the cap rises, that number will shrink.

However, Tavares also wants to make money and a lot of this is tied to the Islanders arena deal. Currently, Belmont is pondering offers from the Isles and NYCFC. Perhaps appropriately, it’s going to go down to the wire.

Both teams have submitted their proposals to the Empire State Development Corp, which is expected to choose a winner within months.

The Islanders should probably be fine. Their offer objectively seems like the most reasonable one. And should Belmont select the Islanders offer, Tavares will likely eagerly sign his extension shortly after it becomes official.

Plan B

But what if the worst possible scenario happens and Belmont selects NYCFC’s offer? The Islanders still have some options. Firstly, they can suck it up and stay at Barclay’s Center. But considering the arena and the Islanders are each searching for a way out, this isn’t a long-term option. Even if the Isles don’t back out, Barclays might do it.

The second option, in theory, will happen regardless of what happens – the Islanders will search for a new home. For the record, the Isles can get out of their 25-year lease with Barclays, but they’ve got to let them know by Jan. 30 (and negotiations end on Jan. 1).

If the Islanders lose out on Belmont, they’ve got to find a new home fast. Otherwise, they risk losing the best player they’ve had since the days of Denis Potvin and Bryan Trottier.

Next: 3 Bold Predictions For The Islanders

Islanders fans shouldn’t be mad at Tavares over waiting to sign. The next contract he signs will be an extremely critical one for him. Tavares is weighing his options and making sure he doesn’t sign himself into an undesirable situation. It’s up the Islanders to ensure their situation remains desirable for their captain. Unfortunately, their ability to do so probably depends on those in charge at Belmont.

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