The Edmonton Oilers might have already played themselves out of a playoff spot.
Entering the 2017-18 NHL season, many thought the Edmonton Oilers would be Stanley Cup contenders. This was a fair judgment, seeing as how they had just narrowly lost to the Anaheim Ducks in the playoffs. With another year of improvement and a well-balanced roster on paper, everyone assumed even in a worst-case scenario, the Oilers would make the postseason.
However, entering Dec. 17, Edmonton has just 30 points in 33 games. Their .455 point percentage is the fourth-lowest in the NHL. The Oilers have probably already dug themselves into a hole too deep to get out of.
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How many points will it take to make the postseason? To be honest, there’s no real way to know. You can predict, but teams go on hot streaks and cold streaks. Last season, the cutoff point was set at 94 points. This season, if we look at point percentage, the Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks are the cutoff point at 57.8 percent. Over an 82 game season (remember two points are available each game), this averages out to 94.792. Let’s round that up to 95.
There are three numbers Oilers fans should keep an eye on moving forward. The first is 95 points. That’s what it will probably take to make the postseason. Though the Boston Bruins might disagree. The second important number is 98. With 49 games left, this is how many points are left for the Oilers to obtain. This number decreases by two after every game.
Finally, Oilers fans should focus on the number 65. Not just because Erik Karlsson is awesome, but because that’s how many points they’ll likely have to get to make the postseason.
How Likely Is A Playoff Run?
In order to make the postseason, the Oilers will have to maintain a .663 point percentage. That basically means they’ve got to pick up two-thirds of the points left in the season. Even a 6-4-0 record during each 10 game stretch wouldn’t be enough (though a 6-3-1 record would be).
How likely is this? Last season, the Oilers pulled off something similar. After 33 games, they had 37 points. The Oilers proceeded to pick up 66 points in their final 49 games, finishing with 103 points. It’s worth noting Edmonton was a better team in their first 33 games last season than this season.
Last year, the Oilers offense led the way, scoring the eighth-most goals in the league. After 33 games, they were fourth in the NHL in goals scored. This season, the Oilers rank 15th in goals per game with 2.91. Edmonton’s offense has to come alive in order for them to go on a run like last season. Especially since their goaltending is much worse than it was back then.
During their 49 game finish last season, Edmonton had a team save percentage of 91.6 percent (1418 shots allowed and 119 goals against). Thus far this season, the Oilers have an 89.4 percent team save percentage, the worst in the NHL. A year after posting a 91.9 save percentage in 2016-17, goaltender Cam Talbot has a 90.5 save percentage in 23 games.
An injury to Talbot forced the Oilers to go to their backup goalie Laurent Brossoit. Last year, they didn’t have to rely on him. This year, the Oilers had to and Brossoit didn’t do well, posting a .886 save percentage.
Next: 3 Bold Predictions For The Oilers
Edmonton has had a nightmare season so far. They’ve dug themselves into a very deep hole. This hole appears to be too deep for them to climb out of. It’s not as simple as saying “the Oilers just need to play like they did last season”. Because Edmonton simply isn’t as good as they were last season.