Anaheim Ducks: John Gibson belongs in Vezina Trophy conversation
Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson might be an unconventional Vezina Trophy candidate. But he’s a deserving one.
Each season, the Vezina Trophy is awarded to the top goaltender in the NHL. This award is voted on by the general managers, who have proven they don’t know too much about evaluating goalies. If there’s any justice, Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson will get votes. Especially if his team somehow makes the postseason.
With his team having a season-long case of the injury bug, he’s been asked to keep his team in a position to win nearly every game. Entering Dec. 17, the Ducks have allowed 35.48 shots on goal per game, the most in the NHL. Gibson has faced the third most shots in the league while playing fewer games than those above him.
Just How Valuable Has Gibson Been?
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Goaltenders are, in a way, the most valuable position in hockey. First of all, they play the most minutes. You can make a larger impact on a game if you play for roughly 60 minutes, as opposed to 20 or even 30.
Secondly, goalies are the only players who can make up for their team’s flaws. A center can’t do anything if a defenseman blows his coverage. However, the goaltender can by making a save.
It’s hard to argue Gibson hasn’t been the most valuable player so far for the Ducks. Granted, injuries have cost them players like Rayn Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm, and Sami Vatanen (though he was recently traded). But still, Gibson is a huge reason why the Ducks are still within striking distance of the postseason.
Goaltending analytics are still fairly primitive, though the area is definitely improving. Recently, expected save percentage has become measurable. Think of it as a pitcher’s FIP, except the goalie doesn’t really have any influence over it. Gibson has the third lowest expected save percentage among netminders with at least 800 minutes during all situations. And his 1.77 percent save percentage differential (actual save percentage minus expected) ranks fifth.
Goals saved above average is another new stat, which tells us how much better than average a goalie is. Gibson has the fourth highest GSAA in the NHL. In short, he’s being asked to be outstanding and he hasn’t disappointed.
Gibson has several things working against him. First of all, he’s not going to end up with that many wins. Gibson only has 10. Even if the Ducks get everyone healthy, he’s likely not going to get near 40 wins. Each of the past three winners had at least 40 wins. And 13 of the last 14 got at least 35 wins (Sergei Bobrovsky only had 21 in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season). Unless the Ducks have a significant turnaround, 35 wins seem barely plausible at best.
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Should Gibson win the Vezina Trophy? Probably not. Corey Crawford and Pekka Rinne should be the obvious choices if they keep up their respective current paces. But Gibson has a darn good case to be a Vezina Trophy finalist. And if the Ducks make the playoffs, knowing the voters, that could be enough for him to win.