Nashville Predators May Have Protected the Wrong Forward

The Nashville Predators protected Calle Jarnkrok in the Vegas expansion draft over James Neal. That may be a decision they’re currently regretting.

This unpopular opinion comes courtesy of having watched a lot of former Nashville Predators forward James Neal this season. He’s been one of the best forwards on the Vegas Golden Knights roster, somebody who’s scored the team high in goals and played a notable role on the power play.

However, the Predators chose to expose him in the expansion draft. Instead of protecting Neal, they protected center Calle Jarnkrok. To be fair, the Golden Knights were going to take whichever of the two they didn’t protect.

Jarnkrok hasn’t done poorly. He’s tenth on the Predators with 15 points and has 7 goals to his name, including one on the power play and one shorthanded. But Harnkork is not Neal, and he hasn’t been as successful (at least on the scoreboard) as his counterpart, who was left exposed and was selected.

Let’s break down again why the pick made sense at the time, and why it hasn’t panned out.

Why Protecting Jarnkrok Made Sense

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Jarnkrok is four years younger than Neal. The former’s contract doesn’t expire until 2022, while the latter’s is over after the 2017-18 season. Jarnkrok makes significantly less than Neal does, counting $2 million against the salary cap each year to Neal’s $6 million. And James may earn himself a pay bump after this year if he chooses to enter free agency.

Jarnkrok had 10 points fewer during the regular season, playing 11 more games than Neal. The younger forward also had just two fewer points during the playoffs over one less game. Neal outscored him by four goals, but couldn’t find as many assists.

But when the contracts are three million dollars apart, a team is more willing to accept fewer points. Especially when the belief going into this season was that Jarnkrok would be better this season. To his credit, he very well might be. Jarnkrok’s 15 points are halfway to his total from last season, and he is only 32 games in. He’s generating .47 points per game, .09 points per game over last season’s pace.

Hindsight is 20-20

Besides point production – Neal sits at 26 points total, Jarnkrok at 15 – there are advanced stats that support Neal’s superiority over Jarnkrok this season. He has played more time at even strength, despite having one fewer game. That’s a benefit of being a top-six forward. Neal is ahead in both even strength points per hour and primary points (goals and primary assists) per hour. He has the better possession numbers, and has a positive relative CorsiFor percentage, unlike the Predators forward.

Neal has a better penalty differential than Jarnkrok, having drawn 12 versus Jarnkrok’s one. He has more individual shot attempts than him. Neither starts overwhelmingly in the offensive zone. Neal faces better competition with those minutes and drives the puck well against that stiffer competition.

Still, there are categories that Jarnkrok does better in. He has a better goal differential at even strength. Jarnkork has a better relative goal differential for his team. He’s gone to the box fewer times at even strength, which helps the team not have to kill penalties.

The Nashville Predators goaltenders have better save percentages at even strength with Jarnkrok on the ice than Golden Knights goalies do with Neal. But to be fair, that might have to do with the quality of the goaltender and wings typically don’t have much control over save percentage. Lastly, Jarnkrok has better Corsi dependent on both quality of teammates and of opponents, while playing against lesser competition and with lesser linemates than Neal.

Special Teams

Neal has played a full 60-minute game more on the power play than Jarnkrok. He has five points on the power play to Calle’s one, with four of his assists being primary.

The Vegas forward has also played against the better penalty kills. Neal is the better power-play member, and while the Nashville Predators have the second best man-advantage unit in the league, they can always be better.

But Jarnkrok is the much better penalty kill member, an area where the Golden Knights have struggled.

So Did Nashville Make A Mistake?

If it’s looked at in terms of who’s the better player in general, yes. Neal is the type of player that teams in the NHL would take time and time again. His goals prove that, and he’s an excellent power-play specialist, somebody who can help get the puck in the net. Plus, his possession numbers aren’t half bad. And Neal, should the Knights decide to trade him, should net them a very nice return. They probably have the cap space necessary to keep him if they want.

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But if the situation is looked at with all of the factors present, I think the Nashville Predators would make their decision again. Jarnkrok is better for the type of player they wanted and needed. Neal isn’t the penalty killer they wanted, nor the defensive forward. Jarnkrok can be productive while playing defensively. That’s the usefulness they wanted, and they trusted the rest of their top-six to get the job done, and then traded for Kyle Turris to round them out.

Protecting Neal made more sense short-term. But long-term, Jarnkrok’s value was much higher. So maybe the Predators didn’t protect the wrong forward.

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