New York Islanders: Examining Goaltending Woes
The New York Islanders must fix their goaltending woes if they want to make a Stanley Cup run.
The New York Islanders have been one of the most fun teams to watch in the NHL during the 2017-18 season. This is both a good thing and a bad thing. It’s good because the Islanders have one of the league’s most potent offenses. As of Dec. 21, only the Tampa Bay Lightning have scored more goals. But it’s also bad because they’ve allowed a lot of goals.
Their defense has to be fixed. The Islanders definitely have the forwards necessary to win a Stanley Cup. However, you don’t win Stanley Cups by allowing a lot of goals. There has been a lot of debate about what the issue is. Is it their blueline? Or is it the goaltending? Let’s take a deeper look.
What’s The Cause?
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The easiest way to look at how a team’s defense is doing is expected save percentage. It immediately tells you the kind of shots a team is conceding. Corsica doesn’t have expected save percentage by team, but they do have expected Fenwick save percentage (percentage of unblocked shots that aren’t expected to be goals). As of Dec. 21, they have the 13th lowest expected Fenwick save percentage (93.86 percent) at even strength. During all situations, remarkably, the Islanders are in the top 10 (93.42 percent).
Surprisingly, their actual Fenwick save percentage at even strength is also 93.86 percent. However, this is tied for the seventh-lowest in the league. Also, the Islanders’ numbers in all situations are the second lowest.
This tells us their defense, while it could certainly be better, isn’t the biggest issue. Maybe the loss of Travis Hamonic has hurt the Islanders more than they expected. But the clear issue here is goaltending.
Goaltending Woes
Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss aren’t a new tandem. They’re used to this, as this is the third season of the duo splitting starts. So it’s not like Halak and/or Greiss are in an unfamiliar situation. The two have virtually split starts down the middle – through 34 games, each has 17 starts. Greiss has 18 appearances and Halak has 19, which tells us the former has been pulled twice and the latter has been pulled once.
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Comparing the two, the numbers are downright weird. Halak has clearly been better at even strength. And the team has played a lot better in front of him than Greiss.
However, the numbers are a lot closer in all situations. Here’s the funny part – it isn’t what you think. Usually, when this is an issue, the penalty kill is the issue. But it’s not. It’s actually the power play, where the Islanders have allowed more high danger chances against with Halak.
Halak should be getting most of the starts moving forward. He’s the guy getting the better results. But there is a bit more at play here than just making more saves. Halak’s getting well above average play in front of him and Greiss simply isn’t.
Solutions
If the Islanders want to win a Stanley Cup, they’ve got to fix these goaltending issues. There are two ways they can do this.
The Easy Way Out
Should they want the immediate answer, the Islanders should trade for a goalie. This is complicated because they’d have to persuade the other team to take on either Greiss or Halak. We all know what happened the last time the Islanders thought having three active goalies on the roster would work out.
If the Islanders go this route, Petr Mrazek, Chad Johnson, Antti Raanta, and Aaron Dell are among their options. Michal Neuvirth is one of the best goalies in the NHL when he’s hot. But would adding a goalie fix the underlying issues? Not really. It would be like duct-taping something back together. But maybe a bit of duct tape is what the Islanders need.
Diagnose What’s Going On
It’s alarming how much better the Islanders play in front of Halak than they do in front of Greiss. Especially since the former’s going to be a free agent after this season. The best thing for the Islanders long-term would be to clean things up in front of Greiss and Halak. Of course, they also have to do better for this to work.
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The Islanders are a darn good team. There have been many darn good teams that didn’t win the Stanley Cup because of mediocre goaltending. For the Islanders’ sake, they’d better fix things quickly. No matter what it takes.