Should the Edmonton Oilers Miss the Playoffs?
The Edmonton Oilers are a team that should be a playoff contender but have fallen out of the gates in the 2017-18 season. Here’s why that could be okay.
The Edmonton Oilers and their fans have higher expectations than this. 36 games into the season, they’re sixth in the Pacific division, ahead of only the Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks. Though they have a .500 record (17-17-2), they have the 11th best offense in the league, even with a healthy Connor McDavid. Take away his 31 primary points (goals and first assists) and the Edmonton Oilers are left with 77 goals on the season.
This is not where they should be. Just last year, the Oilers were a contender who went to the second round of the playoffs and almost beat the Anaheim Ducks in their first playoff season in a decade. People around the NHL were taking the Oilers all the way to the Stanley Cup. But here they stand, almost halfway into the season, 14 points back of the division lead, and four points out of a playoff spot. That total could easily grow. And here’s why all of that could be fine going forward.
Learning Experience
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This season should be looked at not only as a learning experience for the players but for the coaches and front office as well. This will be a test to see if everyone can recover from a losing season and to see if the organization can bounce back next year. It will also help the media lower their expectations for the team, and then allow the team to meet and exceed their expectations.
It is also a learning experience for the players. Allow them to make their mistakes this season, and learn from them. Oscar Klefbom hasn’t been the same player this season. He’s been far more sheltered this season than he was last year, taking 56% of his shifts at even strength in the offensive zone. For that six-percent spike, his Corsi For percentage has gone up only two percent. He’s been able to help limit high-danger chances, but again, that’s while starting offensively. His on-ice save percentage has gone down.
That’s only one player. The rest of the defense has seen similar struggles when they’re healthy. They haven’t been throughout much of the season. Cam Talbot continues to struggle after posting his best season last year. And as mentioned, the offense that isn’t McDavid hasn’t been as productive as hoped.
The Offense
After McDavid and his 41 points, the Oilers have two players with 26 points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl has only played 31 games, while Nugent-Hopkins has played the full season. Neither are producing at an expected rate. Nugent-Hopkins can’t find assists, while Draisaitl should be at a point-per-game, considering his contract.
Even McDavid can improve areas of his game – his faceoff percentage is incredibly lacking, at 37.2 percent. That’s the worst in his career. He has to learn how to take and win a faceoff because it helps his team drive possession. The rest of the criticism against him is overblown, including that thing about giveaways. He still has a terrific takeaway/giveaway ratio.
How to Learn
The players can learn from their mistakes by looking at what they’re doing wrong and focusing on it in practice. I’m sure the coaching staff has noticed what’s gone wrong. The rest of the season can be devoted to fixing these mistakes, not just in the short-term, but for the long-term of the team. If the Edmonton Oilers succeed at correcting themselves, even if they don’t make the playoffs, they will be closer to the Cup.
2018 Draft Class
That’s because of the loaded 2018 draft class. Staying in contention for a lottery pick is a great thing this year. That includes the stud, generational Swedish defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. He looks to be the best thing since Erik Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom.
Dahlin could be even better than Karlsson, considering his talent at producing goals like he’s a forward. The 18-year-old has five goals and 11 points in 26 games in the Swedish Hockey League this season. That’s a talent that could help fix the Oilers’ blueline and give the Edmonton Oilers another generational talent that could help McDavid.
There’s also defensemen like Adam Boqvist, Noah Dobson, Quinn Hughes, and Jared McIsaac. If the Oilers miss out on the top-tier of the defensive draft class, there’s also forwards like Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, and Brady Tkachuk. With the Oilers offense struggling behind McDavid, they aren’t bad draft picks either.
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These prospects all represent something the Edmonton Oilers have wanted all season – speed. Getting younger, faster, for cheaper. That’s what the draft is for, and this year, the Oilers could be rewarded, even if they continue to struggle.
Key Contracts
None of the Edmonton Oilers’ most important players are on expiring contracts this year. At least not expiring contracts that result in unrestricted free agency. The players who will become free agents are Mark Letestu, Patrick Maroon, Mike Cammalleri, Yohann Auvitu, and Mark Fayne.
None are pressing matters, even with Maroon’s brilliance last year. That brilliance can be replaced by someone younger like Jesse Puljujarvi, while Maroon gets paid more on the open market. It will make the team faster, and give McDavid someone who can keep up with him more easily.
The list of restricted free agents are more important and includes Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula, Brandon Davidson, and Darnell Nurse. Nurse and the forwards are the utmost priority this season. Paying them should come first.
But McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Zack Kassian, Andrej Sekera, Klefbom, and Adam Larsson are all secured for the long-term. The core of this team can recover from this season together, and it could help bond them, making them stronger.
Next: Oilers Postseason Hopes Hanging By A Thread
And the Edmonton Oilers aren’t out of it yet. There’s still time to recover, especially with the best player in hockey at their number one center. They can get healthy, and they can get back in the playoff hunt. But even if they don’t, that can itself do fundamental good for the Oilers.