The Pittsburgh Penguins are not a playoff-caliber team this year, and it might not be too early to call.
No one wants to count out back-to-back defending champions, in the same manner one wouldn’t count out Detroit winning a third-straight Stanley Cup in ’99 when they lost to Colorado in the second round. Teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins tend to make fools of the naysayers and cynics.
However, this season it’s different. On Friday night, the aforementioned two-time defending champions lost their most important game of the season thus far. Going into the game against the Hurricanes in Raleigh, the teams were tied with 41 points. However, Carolina had two games in hand having now played 37 games to Pittsburgh’s 39.
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According to sportsclubstats.com, the Penguins had a 17.4% chance of making the playoffs before the puck dropped at PNC Arena. After a brutally frustrating 2-1 loss, the Pens’ playoff hopes plummeted 4.2 points to just 13.1%.
The defeat last night goes far beyond numbers and projections, unfortunately. With rumors heating up about the Penguins potentially moving Kris Letang, it’s evident that the organization is aware they have deep-rooted problems.
There are several reasons the Penguins are too weak to pose any real threat to the rest of the Eastern Conference or NHL. Even though Pittsburgh’s defense is awful like last season, their offense just isn’t as dangerous or productive as it was the past couple of years.
The Penguins proved in 2017 that it’s possible to be a championship team if your defense is poor, but only if your offense is excellent. As hard as it may be to admit for Pens fans, the offseason killed their chances of achieving the three-peat this year.
Lack of depth
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There can really only be one explanation for why a team with three of the best forwards in the league is only averaging 2.77 goals per game, ranking 21st out of 31 teams: a severe lack of depth on offense.
After a world-class top two lines, the Penguins really fall off. Losing Nick Bonino and Chris Kunitz to the Predators and Bolts, respectively, depleted Pittsburgh’s ability to score goals when the Crosby/Malkin lines aren’t on the ice. After a series of personnel moves, Riley Sheahan has settled in as the third center.
Statistics shouldn’t be necessary to illustrate how this is an extreme downgrade from Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen. Besides his enormous 6’3″ stature, it’s difficult to tell what the Pens saw in him other than sheer size and experience.
Not the same Letang
The defense moves through Kris Letang in Pittsburgh. He’s far and away the best defenseman on the team and one of the league’s best. But the Pens won a second straight Stanley Cup without Letang a few months ago, so he can’t be the problem. Right?
I’m not so sure. The rest of the Penguins defense isn’t playing as well as during the 2017 playoffs, though Justin Schultz is currently on injured reserve. When a weak group needs to step up, the best player and leader is the one who shows up.
However, Letang has done anything but “show up” this year. After missing the playoffs with a herniated disk and having to undergo surgery, this is not the Letang hockey fans and Pens fans know. He’s currently third among all defenseman in giveaways with 55 and doesn’t look like the same player he was before the injury and operation. Now more than ever, the Penguins need him to step up and produce in a big way.
Goaltending, or lack thereof
Tristan Jarry kept the Penguins in the game by making 31 saves. He has been in the cage for 12 games compared to Murray’s 27, but has been significantly superior to him with a save percentage of .921 percent compared to Murray’s .904 percent.
Murray was incredible for the Penguins last year, especially during the playoffs, but has really taken a dive this season. Of course, he’s not getting much help from his defense. And Murray’s allowed 2.94 goals per game.
The jury is still out whether or not the Penguins made the right decision in keeping him over Marc-Andre Fleury. However, that’s another offseason decision that could prove detrimental to the Penguins overall quality going forward.
This Pittsburgh team isn’t the same one we’ve seen for the past couple of years. Simply put, a team won’t (and shouldn’t) make the playoffs by giving up 3.15 goals per game, or scoring just 2.77 goals per game. The Penguins rank 21st in the league in both categories.
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To have a shred of a chance to steal the second Wild Card spot, Pittsburgh must count on a biblical resurrection in the second half of the season. That would include a transformed Kris Letang and healthy Justin Schultz, a much improved Matt Murray, and consistent production from the third and fourth lines. Unfortunately for the Pens, this isn’t the NBA. Crosby and Malkin can’t do it alone.