Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon Exceeding High Expectations

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 04: Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche skates prior to the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at the Pepsi Center on January 4, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JANUARY 04: Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche skates prior to the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at the Pepsi Center on January 4, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)

Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon should be on everyone’s hypothetical Hart Trophy ballot

One of the biggest surprises of the 2017-18 NHL season has been the Colorado Avalanche. No one expected them to be better than a bottom 10 team in the NHL at best. Most projected them to be in the bottom five. As of Jan. 9, the Avalanche have 47 points in 41 games as they occupy the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot. A huge reason for their drastic improvement from last season has been the emergence of Nathan MacKinnon.

For the first time in his career, he’s looking like a first overall pick. MacKinnon has been a consistent 50 point player, which is a lot harder to be than many people think. After 41 games, he already has 52 points, equalling his full 2015-16 total and just one off his full 2016-17 total. MacKinnon is on pace to shatter his career high of 62 points, set in his rookie season.

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With 18 goals and 34 assists, he’s on pace to break his career highs in those categories as well (24 and 39 respectively). Entering the 2017-18 season, the future of Matt Duchene was in question. Following the trade, MacKinnon became the guy in Colorado.

While Gabriel Landeskog might be the captain, MacKinnon is unquestionably their most valuable player. The Avalanche are one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL, ranking sixth in goals scored with 134. This makes MacKinnon’s influence on their offense even more impressive. He’s been a part of 38.52 percent of their goals scored.

At even strength, the Avalanche aren’t that impressive. They’re a bottom five possession team who struggle to score goals. Their 73 goals at even strength rank 18th. MacKinnon has 30 even strength points, trailing only Nikita Kucherov’s 33. In short, he’s been a part of 41 percent of their even-strength goals.

But hey, points are a bit silly. After all, secondary assists are weird. Their value is questionable at best, but fans can agree primary assists are more telling of someone’s skill than secondary assists. Even if you look exclusively at goals and primary assists, MacKinnon ranks second in the NHL with 25. Once again, only Kucherov (28) has more and Kucherov has played in one more game.

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The Hart Trophy race is wide open. There are a ton of contenders and two of the favorites (Steven Stamkos and Kucherov) could cancel each other out. An award given to the “player deemed to be most valuable to his team” will always be more subjective than other awards because there are so many different ways to determine a player’s value. But there’s no reason MacKinnon shouldn’t finish in the top 10 right now. Maybe even top five.