NHL Trade Rumors: How every team could trade for Erik Karlsson
The latest NHL trade rumors point to Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson being traded in the offseason. Every team should be interested in him, so here’s how each team could feasibly trade for him.
The Ottawa Senators are spiraling downwards fast. They’ve gone from Stanley Cup contenders to bottom feeders in a matter of four months. Ottawa went all-in by trading for Matt Duchene and found themselves as deadline sellers just three months later. They did this while having an elite defenseman in Erik Karlsson.
Their captain Karlsson was not traded before the 2018 trade deadline. Though it certainly wasn’t due to a lack of effort. The Senators were listening to offers and Karlsson nearly got traded to several teams. Ottawa’s relationship with their captain might be so poor, an extension that once seemed inevitable is looking less likely with every passing day.
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Should the Senators not be able to extend him (and Karlsson is on record saying he won’t give them a hometown discount), they must trade him. As bad as trading their captain would be, losing him for nothing would be even worse. If you think P.K. Subban trade rumors were bad, Karlsson trade rumors are even more ridiculous.
Just about every fanbase covets Karlsson. At the age of 27 (he turns 28 in May), he’s still in his prime. Karlsson is already one of the two right-handed defensemen ever with more than one Norris Trophy (Chris Chelios is the other).
His points per game rate is among the best all-time for righties. Factor in the era during which Karlsson plays, and you have a case there hasn’t been a better right-handed defenseman than him.
Let’s take a look at how each NHL team could trade for him. First, some ground rules. I won’t just throw first-round picks at the Senators until they accept. This isn’t a video game, this is real life. Secondly, no players with no-movement clauses will be allowed to go to Ottawa. Frankly, why would anyone waive it?
Thirdly, unless otherwise specified, an eight-year extension will be a part of the trade. This means Karlsson will be more than a rental. So let’s take a look at if, and how, each NHL team can feasibly trade for the two-time Norris Trophy winner.
Anaheim Ducks
Why they make sense: The Anaheim Ducks are approaching that point where they need to consider pushing in all of their chips. Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler are getting older. So is Corey Perry. The Ducks are a team built to win now and Karlsson would certainly help them achieve this goal.
Feasible trade: Their first-round pick has to be involved here. That shouldn’t be an issue for the Ducks. Instead, the issue is where they go after the first rounder. Sam Steel might have to be included in this trade because he’s their lone top-tier prospect. It’s hard to see this trade happening without one of Josh Manson or Brandon Montour being in it. Would that be enough to land a two-time Norris Trophy winner, assuming an extension is a part of the deal?
Another option would be including star defenseman Hampus Lindholm in the trade. He’s just young enough to make sense for the Senators. Plus, Lindholm has a team-friendly contract. Would the Ducks move him though?
Is it an expensive price tag? Absolutely. But the Ducks should be willing to pay it. Karlsson immediately turns Anaheim into a contender. He’ll help them be one even after the inevitable declines of Getzlaf and Kesler. With Karlsson, Fowler, at least one of Manson and Montour (and maybe Lindholm), few teams would be able to boast a more productive group of top-four defensemen.
Why it won’t work: The Ducks make sense, but there are teams who are in a position to offer more. Karlsson would be such a great fit in Anaheim, but I honestly don’t think they can put together a competitive offer if every other team is going to be negotiating.
Arizona Coyotes
Why they make sense: The Arizona Coyotes have to do something to get fans to come out to games. Stars make people come to games. Karlsson is one of the NHL’s brightest stars. Whatever the price the Coyotes pay for him would be worth it. Karlsson would arguably be the best player to ever wear a Coyotes sweater.
Feasible trade: Arizona’s first rounder would be the starting point. Now, there are two scenarios – it can either be in the top two or not. The former would be a best-case scenario because it wouldn’t require the Coyotes to trade Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Clayton Keller, Max Domi, and the top-two pick should be enough. If the Senators want a defenseman, Jakob Chychrun should be in the conversation.
However, the second scenario is much more fun. Why? Because the NHL would finally see a sign and trade deal. Both Karlsson and OEL would sign eight-year deals with their current team. They would each have matching no-movement clauses for the final seven seasons.
Now, why not get one for the first year? Because they’re getting traded for each other. Along with Bobby Ryan, who would help lower the cost for the Coyotes a little bit. Arizona has cap space, they might as well use it as an advantage.
Why this won’t happen: Would both players sign extensions? Would Karlsson, who has a no-trade clause, be willing to be traded to Arizona? Probably not. But it sure is fun to dream.
Boston Bruins
Why they make sense: The Boston Bruins have a history of having legendary defensemen. Zdeno Chara. Bobby Orr. Brad Park. Ray Bourque. Paul Coffey. Why not add Karlsson to that lengthy who’s who of great defensemen? Especially with Chara at some point retiring? Karlsson could be the leader of a new blue line, the same way Zdeno has been.
A feasible trade: If the Senators are smart, they demand Charlie McAvoy. He’s an immediate replacement for Karlsson in Ottawa. But Boston isn’t trading him anytime soon. So the conversation starts with Torey Krug or Brandon Carlo.
Boston has already given up their 2018 first-rounder for Rick Nash, so that’s out of the question. But their 2019 first-round pick is still in play. Ottawa might actually value that a little bit more than a 2018 pick considering they might have to give up their 2019 pick in the Matt Duchene trade.
The final piece? Top forward prospect Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson. You’re not getting Erik Karlsson without giving up a top prospect. So the trade is Carlo, the Bruins 2019 first-round pick, Forsbacka Karlsson, and a mid-level prospect.
Why it won’t happen: Would the Senators give up a franchise legend to the Bruins? Nope, they prefer to let free agency do that for them. Also, Ottawa probably isn’t trading within the division. But if they do, Boston has enough prospects and picks to create a serious offer.
Buffalo Sabres
Why they make sense: Perhaps no team in the NHL is more starved for defense than the Buffalo Sabres. They’ve tried just about everything, with no success. Maybe it’s time for them to address it in the boldest way possible – by trading for Karlsson. He’d give them that blueline leader that has eluded them for most of their franchise’s history.
A feasible trade: Here’s the weird thing about the Sabres. You’d expect them to be loaded with top prospects, seeing as how they’ve been rebuilding for the better part of the past five seasons. But the Sabres aren’t.
Rasmus Ristolainen would probably have to be a part of the package. The Sabres, after all, don’t really have any grand slam prospects on the blueline. This changes if they happen to win the 2018 draft lottery, but lucky has rarely been on Buffalo’s side in the draft lottery. Even if the Sabres don’t win the lottery, you can assume Ottawa will ask for that first round pick.
The Senators will likely ask for top forward prospect Casey Mittelstadt as well.
Why it wouldn’t work: Buffalo doesn’t have enough to get this done, in my opinion. A package for Karlsson would probably do more damage to the Sabres than it’s worth, especially if the package includes Ristolainen. Buffalo’s a while from contending. That said, the Sabres are probably desperate enough to be really bold. So maybe it does happen.
Calgary Flames
Why they make sense: It’s worth pointing out the Calgary Flames are already pretty well set down the right side of their blueline. For better or for worse, Dougie Hamilton, Michael Stone, and Travis Hamonic are locked in long-term. Karlsson would still be a pretty significant acquisition for the Flames.
Feasible trade: Can one get done that doesn’t include their elite talent or Hamilton? Probably not because the Flames don’t have a first-round pick in 2018 or a second-round pick until 2020. However, the Senators, as mentioned earlier, could value a 2019 pick more highly than a 2018 one.
2017 first-round pick Juuso Valimaki is doing great and might challenge for an NHL spot next season. The Flames might want to consider throwing in a second first-round pick (2020) if the Senators would be willing to take on Troy Brouwer’s contract. Calgary would need to clear cap space to work something out anyway.
Why it won’t happen: NHL teams really don’t like salary cap maneuvering. Karlsson’s worth doing it for, but the Flames would need a minor miracle to make everything work out. Plus, Calgary will have to give Mathew Tkachuk a pretty big raise soon. Even with a rising salary cap, this complicates things.
Carolina Hurricanes
Why they make sense: Erik Karlsson would be a big upgrade for the Hurricanes. That said… they don’t make sense. There is no feasible trade the Hurricanes should offer for Karlsson. This has nothing to with number 65. It has more to do with Carolina.
Why there is no feasible trade: If the Hurricanes are investing a ton of assets into anything, it must be towards a franchise center. Adding Karlsson to their blueline wouldn’t make the impact that adding a top center would to their forward core.
The Hurricanes already have a pretty good defensive core. Between Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, and Noah Hanifin, with more help on the way, Carolina doesn’t need Karlsson nearly as badly as they need someone like John Tavares.
But wait: There is one feasible way the Hurricanes could help accommodate a Karlsson trade – take on Bobby Ryan’s albatross contract. This would include the forward having to waive his no-movement clause.
But if the Senators insist on including Ryan in any trade for Karlsson, Carolina is in a very good position to act as a third party and take on Ryan. They’ve used their cap space to their advantage in the past, using Bryan Bickell as a vehicle for getting Teuvo Teravainen. If the Canes are smart, they’ll do it again here.
Chicago Blackhawks
Why they make sense: The Chicago Blackhawks desperately need to rebuild their blueline. Duncan Keith is getting older by the second and Brent Seabrook is already a buyout candidate. Connor Murphy has been impressive but has yet to gain the trust of head coach Joel Quenneville. Karlsson would give them some energy and more elite talent, which is precisely what they need moving forward.
Feasible trade: It’s fair to question if one exists. Why? Because the Blackhawks are in salary cap purgatory for a bit. Acquiring Karlsson would force them to take on a huge extension that’s likely going to wind up with an annual cap hit with eight digits before the decimal point.
So let’s get creative. First of all, Seabrook would have to waive his no-movement clause. He goes to some other team, probably the Coyotes. That’s probably going to take a first-round pick and a top prospect.
Now, to get Karlsson, Chicago could give up Brandon Saad and another first-round pick. This is an addition to yet another top prospect! Would it be worth it? Honestly, that’s debatable.
Why it won’t happen: The Blackhawks are wisely going through a bit of a rebuild. They need their draft picks, so surrendering them, even for someone like Karlsson, makes very little sense.
Colorado Avalanche
Why it makes sense: The Colorado Avalanche have a pretty promising future. Nathan MacKinnon has emerged as a legitimate Hart Trophy. For the first time in a while, there’s a lot of optimism with the Avalanche. Why not build on it by acquiring a two-time Norris Trophy winner like Karlsson?
Feasible trade package: Tyson Barrie makes sense for a variety of reasons. First, he’s arguably their most valuable player this side of MacKinnon. Barrie can produce on offense like very few defenseman can. He’s also a tad bit surplus in Colorado, especially with their young defensemen impressing.
Now, what do the Avalanche do about the first round pick? In case you forgot, Colorado already has one of Ottawa’s first round picks in either 2018 or 2019. Do they give it back to the Senators? Would this be the first time a first-round pick has been traded to a team and then traded back in less than a calendar year?
This trade doesn’t happen without a first-rounder, so the Avalanche would give up their 2018 first-round pick. 2019 if the Senators elect to keep their 2018 first-round pick. The Avalanche could offer any number of prospects, but one would think Cale Makar would be untouchable. Maybe Tyson Jost would make sense?
Why it wouldn’t happen: There’s no reason why this shouldn’t happen. The Avalanche have what it takes to get Karlsson, so they should be calling Ottawa. While it’s true Colorado could just wait a year, that might not be a luxury if he’s on the market because any team who trades for him probably wants an extension.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Why they should do it: The Columbus Blue Jackets already have a borderline elite right-handed defenseman in Seth Jones. But you know what? Adding an elite right-handed defenseman (arguably the best ever not named Chris Chelios) like Karlsson would make the Blue Jackets a consistent Stanley Cup contender.
Feasible trade: Like the previous teams, the Blue Jackets could offer the Senators either their 2018 or 2019 first-round pick. Boone Jenner is someone who Ottawa could be interested in. Even though he’s in the midst of a bad 2017-18 season, he’s been better in the past. Maybe a change of scenery will help him.
Now, Jenner doesn’t have too much trade value right now. But you know who does? Vitaly Abramov, the Blue Jackets 2016 third round pick. He’s currently tearing up the QMJHL. Along with Jenner and Abramov, Columbus would complete their package with promising young defenseman Markus Nutivaara.
Why it wouldn’t happen: The Blue Jackets have always been bold. They’re not afraid to pull the trigger on a big move. Karlsson would make a ton of sense for the Blue Jackets, but only if they can extend him. That’s going to be a HUGE question in any trade for number 65. The Blue Jackets shouldn’t have an issue, looking at their cap space.
Dallas Stars
Why they make sense: The clock is ticking for the Dallas Stars. Tyler Seguin’s criminally cheap contract comes to an end after the 2018-19 season. This makes Erik Karlsson a more logical fit for them as a rental, but an extension would still make some sense. But for the purposes of the Stars, we’ll put together that makes sense without an extension.
Feasible trade: The Stars would need to clear some cap space to get Karlsson. They only have 13 players under contract for next season and, assuming the cap goes up, right around $20 million of cap space. Adding Karlsson would give them roughly $13.5 million to fill eight spots. That’s not ideal.
Jason Spezza isn’t an option because he would never waive his no-movement clause to go back to Ottawa. Maybe the Stars can clear him in a different deal, which would give them much more freedom as far as spending.
Esa Lindell would make sense for the Senators. He’s a quality defenseman who would help form Ottawa’s next good blueline. Julius Honka is another player they should target. Those two Finnish defensemen would be a really nice addition to the Senators. Obviously, the Stars 2018 first-round pick would also be in play.
Why it won’t happen: Too much salary cap maneuvering. Though I think Karlsson would like to go to the Stars, namely because Marc Methot, his former partner, is also on the team.
Detroit Red Wings
Why they make sense: The Detroit Red Wings are stuck in a rebuild. But here’s the problem. They just opened a new arena and probably don’t want fans to get disinterested. Find a way to fit Erik Karlsson under the salary cap would make them a much better team.
Feasible trade: This is going to be complicated because the Red Wings have an awful salary cap situation. A feasible trade might not exist unless Detroit gets very lucky in the draft lottery. If they win it or at least finish in the top three, the Red Wings can probably make a Karlsson trade happen.
Ottawa won’t be too interested in taking on an expensive deal in return. They have enough of those to worry about even without Karlsson. But in Detroit’s case, it might be a necessity. Gustav Nyquist’s deal isn’t horrible and at least he’s still a decent player. He’s due $4.75 million through the end of next season.
Toss in Filip Hronek and another mid-level prospect and you might have enough to make the Senators think.
Why it won’t happen: It’s not happening because the Red Wings are in awful shape as far as cap space. Would Karlsson be a massive upgrade? Absolutely. Should they be interested in him? Sure. But the Senators can find a team with far more to offer than Detroit.
Edmonton Oilers
Why they make sense: Just imagine Connor McDavid and Erik Karlsson on the same team. That’s borderline cheating. In all seriousness, the Oilers really need a franchise defenseman. And Edmonton has the pieces to pull off a variety of trades for Karlsson, depending on what the Senators want.
Feasible trades: The Oilers have several. A Leon Draisaitl for Karlsson trade would make some sense for both sides. I still think the Oilers would have to add more, but it’s a nice start. However, the Senators should choose to go with quantity over quality, especially if the quantity has good players in it.
If the Oilers win the draft lottery (and history shows they have a good chance of doing so), the first overall pick would be a huge help to Edmonton’s chances. Throw in Oscar Klefbom and one of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto and the Oilers could really tempt Ottawa.
Why it won’t happen: Don’t get your hopes up, Oilers fans. First of all, Peter Chiarelli is definitely not good enough to pull off a trade for Karlsson. He’s really bad at big trades (but admittedly good at tinkering). Don’t fret though. Maybe someday the team that gets Karlsson will trade for McDavid because Chiarelli loves trading first overall picks.
Florida Panthers
Why they make sense: The Florida Panthers should pursue Erik Karlsson relentlessly. They need a true face of the franchise and he would be a perfect fit. Karlsson wouldn’t help solve all of the attendance issues (Sunrise, Florida is in the middle of nowhere) but he’d sure help. The Panthers also have the pieces to put together a very competitive offer for him.
Feasible trade: Part of the trade would have to involve trading someone like Aaron Ekblad or Michael Matheson. The former might be preferable because of his concussion issues and the NHL definitely overvalues him a little bit.
Like all the other teams, the Panthers would offer either their 2018 or 2019 first-round pick, giving the Senators options. Now, here’s where all the Florida fans are going to get mad. Henrik Borgstrom would have to be a part of the deal. Sorry guys. In order to get talent, you’ve got to give it up. And anyone who wants to make a major trade with the Panthers is going to ask for Borgstrom.
Why it won’t happen: The Panthers aren’t in the best shape financially. Do they really want to invest eight figures a year into Karlsson? The Panthers are barely treading water as is. Frankly, Karlsson probably has them on his no-trade list because of that. Why get traded out of Ottawa only to go to the only NHL team with more questionable finances?
Los Angeles Kings
Why they make sense: The Los Angeles Kings would like to have mobile defensemen. Erik Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman in the NHL. The two sides would be an obvious fit. Plus, just imagine the damage a blueline featuring Karlsson and Drew Doughty could do. Yikes.
Feasible trade: Does it exist? Maybe not. The first-round pick would obviously be in play. Two might be required considering the Kings don’t have many elite prospects. This is likely due to them having just one first-round pick since the 2014 NHL Draft. One of them, however, is Gabriel Vilardi, their 2017 first-round pick.
Wait. A feasible trade does exist. One that would burn the NHL to the ground and reshape the league as we know it. What if the Kings aren’t confident they can re-sign Drew Doughty? Let’s suppose Karlsson is willing to sign an extension with Los Angeles. And, for whatever reason, Doughty would sign in Ottawa.
Remember how glorious Shea Weber for P.K. Subban was? The chaos that ensued? That’s nothing compared to Doughty for Karlsson.
Why it won’t happen: The Kings would never do that Karlsson for Doughty trade. Also, LA simply doesn’t have what the Senators would probably like in a trade. So the ultimate one-for-one trade will have to wait for another day.
Minnesota Wild
Why they would make sense: Duh. Any team should be more than interested in adding Erik Karlsson. But especially one whose clock is ticking and doesn’t have much room for failure. This is a perfectly accurate description of the Minnesota Wild.
Feasible trade: Oh man. If you thought the Red Wings were tough to come up with a feasible trade for, the Wild are even worse. Two of the last deals signed before the seven-year maximum (eight years if re-signing with current team) term which came from the 2012-13 lockout were Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. This duo sums up why the NHL is far better off with the term limits.
Matt Dumba would be a good guy for the Senators to target. He’s a restricted free agent and has shown he’s probably deserving of more minutes than he currently gets. There’s just one problem – losing Dumba would do nothing to help the Wild’s cap situation. So let’s address that issue.
The Senators are going to have to take on an expensive player or two. Charlie Coyle has a cap hit of $3. 2 million for the next two seasons after this one. That’s not bad at all and he’s a pretty useful player. Tyler Ennis would have to be included as well. But how do you make up for Ottawa having to eat salary?
With draft picks. The Wild would have to give up no fewer than two first-round picks to have Karlsson even be a feasible option.
Why it won’t happen: Minnesota has very little cap space. If general manager Chuck Fletcher is done after the 2017-18 season, he leaves the Wild in really bad shape.
Montreal Canadiens
Why they make sense: This might come as a huge surprise, but elite right-handed defenseman are very hard to come by. The Canadiens found this out the hard way when they traded P.K. Subban for Shea Weber. Also, imagine arguably the NHL’s best player when healthy in the NHL’s top market. That’s a dream.
Plausible trade: Weber could be included in this scenario. However, he’s injured and, frankly, he’s old. No team should be interested in trading for Weber after his recent foot surgery, even with 50 percent retained salary. Maybe down the line, his eventual low salary would make him perfect for a team like the Senators. But certainly not now.
Alex Galchenyuk makes sense for Ottawa. They need guys who can create offense and Chucky can do that. At least one of Noah Juulsen and Victor Mete would have to be included because those are the only two viable young defensemen for the Habs. Throw in 2017 first round pick Ryan Poehling and the Senators might do it. Especially if the Canadiens can somehow fit Bobby Ryan in, which is surprisingly plausible.
Why it won’t happen: Marc Bergevin hates mobile right-handed defensemen who wear silly clothes.
Nashville Predators
Why they make sense: It’s probably illegal to have so many great defensemen like the Nashville Predators do. But just imagine P.K. Subban and Erik Karlsson on the same team. Could any team handle so much joy and greatness? Let’s find out!
Also, keep in mind the Predators have to worry about extensions to Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi shortly. If they aren’t confident they can keep either, maybe the Preds go after Karlsson. Nashville at least expressed interest in him earlier in 2018.
Plausible trade: They can’t take on Bobby Ryan’s contract, so that hurts their cause. The Predators, do, however, have Ellis. He’ll be a free agent after the 2018-19 season. Ottawa wouldn’t have to pay him nearly as much as Karlsson and Ellis is still a pretty good defenseman (albeit he’s not the same caliber as Karlsson).
The Predators traded their 2018 first-round pick for Ryan Hartman, but they still have their 2019 first-rounder. So that checks out. Eeli Tolvanen would make the package complete, but the only way he’s getting traded is if Karlsson agrees to an extension as a part of the trade.
Why it won’t happen: This sounds way too good to be true. So it probably won’t happen. But that doesn’t mean you can’t secretly root for it to happen.
New Jersey Devils
Why they make sense: The New Jersey Devils might be the most plausible suitor for Erik Karlsson. They have all the things you want to see in a Karlsson suitor. Contender? Close enough, check. Cap space for Karlsson? Check. Cap space for Bobby Ryan? You bet. The Devils also really need to upgrade their blue line and there’s no better way for them to do that than by trading for Karlsson.
Feasible trade: Ottawa probably shouldn’t try to lessen their return for number 65 by trading him with Ryan. But I suppose that’s why I’m not an NHL general manager. The Devils are flush with picks and have enough young players and prospects to make this work.
Sadly, Damon Severson is probably going to have to go in this trade. He’s been a darn good defenseman for the Devils. But if you’re getting Karlsson, Severson is an afterthought. The Devils have all of the first round picks for a while, so the options there are plentiful. Throw in a young prospect like Michael McLeod or John Quenneville and you’ve got something.
Why it won’t happen: I’ve got nothing. This is a perfect fit for Karlsson if the Senators want to include Ryan’s terrible contract in the deal as well.
New York Islanders
Why they make sense: Trading for Erik Karlsson would be a heck of a way for the New York Islanders to persuade captain John Tavares to stay with the Isles. He’d be a massive upgrade to their blue line and he’d be their best defensemen since Denis Potvin.
Feasible trade: No, they can’t take on Bobby Ryan’s contract. But the Islanders do have two first-round picks and two second-round picks in 2018. That’s got to give them a bit of a leg up on everyone else. Kieffer Bellows is the Islanders’ top prospect, so it’s a given he’ll be included in the trade as well. Josh Ho-Sang is an intriguing piece who the Senators should target as well.
So the final trade is a first-round pick (higher of the two), a second-round pick (higher of the two), Bellows, and another prospect (likely Ho-Sang) for Karlsson. The Islanders might want to clear someone’s cap space (cough Johnny Boychuk cough), but this is a trade that should work for both sides.
Why it won’t happen: Islanders general manager Garth Snow is never getting fired. And unless Chiarelli acquires Karlsson, Snow isn’t taking advantage of any general manager. Even if the Isles fire their general manager, due to his long-term contract and moving to Belmont, the Islanders probably won’t have the money to take on both Tavares and Karlsson right away. The Isles should just wait for him to (hopefully) hit free agency.
New York Rangers
Why they make sense: Yes, the New York Rangers are rebuilding. However, in the back of their heads, they probably realize they’ve only got a year or two left of Henrik Lundqvist being a really good goalie. So would it be surprising in the slightest to see the Rangers enter the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes? Nope. Not at all.
Feasible trade: The Rangers could, in theory, offer three first-round picks to the Senators for Karlsson. This would allow them to get the two-time Norris Trophy winner without giving up any concrete assets! But realistically, that isn’t happening, even if the Rangers could theoretically afford to take on Bobby Ryan.
They will, however, throw in one first-round pick (probably their own since that will be the highest). In addition, the Rangers would throw in Brady Skjei and one of their young center prospects. Or, if Ottawa prefers, Kevin Hayes could be included in lieu of the young center. There would need to be some minor picks and prospects thrown in on both sides, but this is a good start.
Why it won’t happen: The Rangers seem pretty committed to rebuilding. It would make very little sense to trade their captain only to give up assets to acquire someone like Karlsson. I wouldn’t rule it out completely, but Jeff Gorton doesn’t seem to be the type of general manager who would pull off such a huge blockbuster. But be happy Rangers fans. You’re finally rebuilding and it appears you’re doing it the right way.
Philadelphia Flyers
Why they make sense: You could make the argument the Philadelphia Flyers don’t really need Erik Karlsson. Considering their bright looking future on the blueline, you might be right. But nope, you can always make room for a generational talent like Erik Karlsson.
Feasible trade: The Flyers have what it takes to offer a variety of packages to the Senators for their defenseman. An intriguing thought would involve sending Shayne Gostisbehere to Ottawa. He has a ton of trade value, but isn’t quite as good as a healthy Karlsson.
The Flyers would have to include a first-round pick. Good thing Philadelphia got an extra one by trading Brayden Schenn to the St. Louis Blues. Whether that pick is in 2018 or 2019, toss in a third-round pick and a mid-level prospect and it’s probably enough to get Karlsson.
If the Senators prefer quantity, the Flyers have a number of tempting prospects. Philly could do something like telling Ottawa they can have two of Travis Sanheim, Samuel Morin, Philippe Myers, Oskar Lindblom, and Carter Hart. Package that with a first-round pick and another mid-level prospect and it’s probably enough.
Why they won’t: Ron Hextall has made his career as an NHL general manager sticking to a very specific process. While Karlsson is worth deviating from that process, the Flyers don’t have a very good history of attempting to get elite defensemen.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Why they make sense: Sure, the Pittsburgh Penguins have won two consecutive Stanley Cups and they’re already a top-heavy team cap wise. However, why did the Golden State Warriors sign Kevin Durant? Why did the New York Yankees trade for Giancarlo Stanton? Because they want to be the best. Getting Erik Karlsson would make the Penguins even better.
Feasible trade: As I mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh is a pretty top-heavy team cap wise. They have a group of guys making a lot of money and a group of guys making close to the league minimum. This gives them a pretty dire salary cap situation, making it impossible to faciliate a Karlsson trade without parting with someone making a lot of money.
Let’s go down the list. No, Sidney Crosby is not getting traded. Evgeni Malkin seems to be in trade rumors far more often than he should be, but nope, he’s not getting traded either. Kris Letang would be a possibility, but he has a no-movement clause. And while he’s an amazing defenseman when healthy, it’s fair to ask how much trade value a guy who has a laundry list of serious health issues has.
Justin Schultz and Brian Dumoulin would be the two most logical candidates because they’re the two guys making money who don’t have any movement protection. Daniel Sprong would have to be included in the deal, as would a first-round pick in 2019.
Why it won’t happen: Even NHL 18 on easy mode with that trade veto option turned on wouldn’t let the Penguins trade for Karlsson. Man, that’s just unfair.
St. Louis Blues
Why they make sense: Could you imagine Vladimir Tarasenko and Erik Karlsson on the same team? Oh boy. Plus, factor in Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo and you’ve got yourself a Stanley Cup contender.
Feasible trade: Much like the Penguins, the Blues have two cliques. One of them consists of players who have a huge cap hit. The other consists of players who make less than nine figures or at least close to it. So, much like Pittsburgh, the Blues would have to move out someone who makes significant money to fit Karlsson in.
You can rule out Vladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn. Jaden Schwartz as well. The Blues aren’t breaking up their top forward line, especially when they rely so heavily on them. Patrik Berglund and Alex Steen both make sense, but both have no-trade clauses.
Vladimir Sobotka ($3.5 million cap hit through 2019-20) is the most logical candidate among forwards. Joel Edmundson makes sense, as he’s a young NHL caliber defenseman. Toss in Robert Thomas and the Blues have a pretty reasonable offer. Include that 2018 first round pick they got from Winnipeg plus an additional second-round pick and this works.
Why it won’t happen: St. Louis typically stays away from crazy trades. Jori Lehtera was a special case.
San Jose Sharks
Why they make sense: Heck if I know. But apparently, the Sharks had conversations with the Senators about Erik Karlsson. This likely had some other team helping facilitate the trade for them. Let’s see if we can come up with a package that makes sense.
Feasible trade: I had to get creative to make it happen, but a plausible trade is out there. First of all, the Sharks would take on Bobby Ryan’s contract to lessen the cost. San Jose would give their 2018 first-round pick, defenseman Justin Braun, forward Tomas Hertl, and 2017 first-round pick Joshua Norris to the Senators.
San Jose would then give up their 2019 first-round pick (this assumes they don’t re-sign Kane) and other picks to the Arizona Coyotes, who would proceed to take on Ryan’s contract. This is necessary because the Sharks don’t have any elite level prospects.
But dang it, this trade is worth it. Brent Burns and Karlsson on the same blueline would be the most fun thing in the NHL. The Sharks are a team interested in winning now. Burns is getting older. So is Joe Pavelski and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Joe Thornton is going to have to retire at some point. Karlsson gives this motley crew a serious chance of bringing the Stanley Cup to San Jose.
Why it won’t happen: The Coyotes probably wouldn’t get involved in this. This is probably just a pipe dream. Way too many moving parts and too many assumptions. But you know what? Sometimes, it’s fun to dream.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Why they make sense: Why not? The Tampa Bay Lightning have the look of a team who’s going to be good for a while. Adding Erik Karlsson to an already dynamic blueline would make them the Golden State Warriors of the NHL. However, is a trade still plausible with the addition of Ryan McDonagh?
Feasible trade: For an added degree of difficulty, let’s see if this can happen without the Lightning including Mikhail Sergachev or Brayden Point. What if Tampa Bay sent McDonagh to Ottawa, with the assumption the Senators would flip him for assets? They could easily get at least a first-round pick for him. Probably more.
In this scenario, the Lightning would have to throw in a first-round pick as well (keep in mind that 2019 second round pick in the McDonagh blockbuster becomes a first rounder if they win the Stanley Cup). Yeah, this isn’t going to work.
Tampa Bay would have to part with Sergachev. But he’d be a heck of a piece to build a package around. Throw in 2017 first round pick Adam Foote, Tyler Johnson, and a third-round pick and the Lightning have something.
Why this won’t happen: Please, the Lightning are waiting until free agency. They know he’s coming. Both sides are participating in tampering, as you can see below. Shameful.
Thank you to all the amazing fans who made this weekend an unforgettable experience. The @TBLightning and our great community showed the world how much passion we have for the game of hockey. Still can’t stop smiling ! pic.twitter.com/uN3PGEHU31
— Steven Stamkos (@RealStamkos91) January 29, 2018
Toronto Maple Leafs
Why they make sense: Toronto is the Mecca of the NHL. Just imagine Erik Karlsson, the best defenseman in the world, playing in front of that market. This would be similar to Wayne Gretzky playing in Los Angeles. The Leafs have been searching for a number one defenseman for a long time. Karlsson solves that need.
Feasible trade: For some odd reason, Toronto enjoys throwing Mitch Marner’s name around in trade rumors. Why in heaven’s name would the Leafs get rid of their team leader in points (as of Feb. 28)? How about because Erik freaking Karlsson is the guy you’re trading for?
Marner would be the centerpiece of this deal. But you still need more. The Senators probably want Timothy Liljegren for Karlsson. That’s a pretty fair ask. Marner and Liljegren plus a mid-round pick would get it done. The Leafs are giving up a lot, but they’re getting back Erik Karlsson (with an extension) so it’s worth it.
Why it won’t happen: Could you imagine the outrage in Ottawa if Pierre Dorion trades his captain to Toronto? Karlsson isn’t Dion Phaneuf. He’s an actually good player who has a good chance of winding up as the best right-handed defenseman of all-time. It’s OK though Leafs fans, you’re getting Drew Doughty. Just a matter of time.
Vancouver Canucks
Why they make sense: Jim Benning tried to get P.K. Subban and got fined for it after being a blabbermouth. The Vancouver Canucks are rebuilding. But Benning has no idea what a rebuilding team does. He’s a choose your own adventure book. The Canucks would definitely try to get Karlsson, no matter how silly it might sound.
Feasible trade: Ottawa would have to accept a return of primarily prospects. Chris Tanev is a trade candidate, but his health history should give the Senators pause. The funny thing about the Canucks is they’re a rebuilding team that doesn’t have too many draft picks.
However, the good news is the one thing Vancouver has is top-tier prospects. Olli Juolevi, Adam Gaudette, and Kole Lind would be a nice trio for Ottawa to target. The Canucks would also have to throw in a first-round pick here. Now, this might sound like a lot. But keep in mind the Canucks can’t offer any NHL ready prospects.
Why this won’t happen: Benning will once again ruin everything. He’ll get fined for tampering and the trade would be delayed. However, after oversleeping and missing a meeting with Dorion to finalize the trade, Dorion would just give up and go somewhere else. Such is the life of general manager Jim Benning.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why they make sense: The Vegas Golden Knights reportedly nearly traded for Erik Karlsson at the 2018 NHL trade deadline. They have everything you want from a team interested in him. Vegas has cap space, tons of draft picks, and the ability to eat Bobby Ryan’s contract.
Feasible trade: The Golden Knights would take on Ryan’s deal. I can’t see how Vegas nearly got Karlsson other than by offering to take on his teammate’s albatross contract. Ryan has a no-movement clause, but who wouldn’t forfeit it to play in Sin City?
Vegas would give up their 2019 first-round pick, a 2020 second-round pick, and 2017 first-round pick Nick Suzuki. They’d probably have to give up a little bit more, but this is a very good start. Vegas would have to work around not having many prospects or NHL ready players. That said, what about the Golden Knights has made sense so far? Nothing.
Why it won’t happen: Yes, Vegas would trade for Karlsson! However, they’d proceed to flip him to the Pittsburgh Penguins because that’s apparently what they like doing. You’d hope the Senators wouldn’t be dumb enough to minimize the return for Karlsson by attaching Ryan’shorrible contract to the trade. But this is the same team who willingly traded a top prospect for Alexandre Burrows.
Washington Capitals
Why they make sense: The Washington Capitals don’t have time on their side. Their Stanley Cup window is closing (though was it ever really open to begin with?). They are also in a really bad place as far as the salary cap, even with the rising ceiling. Washington, did, however, apparently have serious discussions with the Senators about Karlsson. So let’s make it happen!
Feasible trade: The Caps would have to get very creative to get Karlsson. It becomes borderline impossible if they re-sign John Carlson, so let’s assume they don’t. And also, they’re taking on Bobby Ryan’s contract.
So the Capitals would give up their 2018 first-round pick, Brooks Orpik (a cap dump), defenseman Lucas Johansen, and forward Jakub Vrana. There would be some more pieces involved for cap reasons, but this is a pretty solid framework. In return, they’d get Karlsson and Ryan. The Capitals would proceed to attach their 2019 first-round pick and trade the latter to a team who can afford his contract.
Why it won’t happen: Good things never happen to the Caps. Even if the Capitals get close to trading for Karlsson, they will choke during the second round of discussions. Everyone knows the Caps have a hard time getting past that dreaded second round.
Winnipeg Jets
Why they make sense: The Winnipeg Jets are the most exciting thing about Winnipeg. By a pretty significant margin too. For some reason, Winnipeg is on everyone’s no-trade list. But Karlsson would probably find playing with Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine on a Stanley Cup contender worth living and playing there.
Feasible trade: Without question, Jacob Trouba would have to be involved in the trade. He’s an excellent young defenseman who could help the Senators replace Karlsson. Trouba and the Jets nearly had a messy divorce several years ago, so a long-term deal isn’t likely. He’s a restricted free agent after this season, by the way.
Jack Roslovic should be a guy the Senators target. They are pretty set with centers, but you can never have too many centers. You can always have them play on the wing. And even if that doesn’t work out, there are always teams looking to get a center.
The Jets would also throw in their 2019 first-round pick. This is a pretty good package that would rely more on quality than quantity. If the Senators want more lesser prospects instead, the Jets are in a good position to offer that as well.
Why it wouldn’t happen: It’s Winnipeg. Nobody wants to be traded there (except for Paul Stastny). Not even Erik Karlsson.