Ottawa Senators: Analyzing Erik Karlsson's Trade Value

What would a hypothetical trade for Erik Karlsson look like?

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Ottawa Senators are likely going to trade captain Erik Karlsson in the offseason. Trading an elite player is hard to do because you’re never going to get fair value. But even as a one-year rental, Karlsson will have a number of NHL teams interested in him.

If the two-time Norris Trophy winner is willing to agree to an extension with the team he’s traded to, even more teams will be interested in him. No fewer than 25 teams should be calling the Senators if this is the case. Karlsson is a guy you can build around and he’s still in his prime. When he’s healthy, there might not be a more influential defenseman in the world.

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But because elite defensemen are rarely traded (unless they’re traded for each other), there is very little precedence regarding a proper return. What should the Senators look for? How do general managers around the league value him?

While the latter is impossible to know since teams aren’t allowed to talk about acquiring a player who is currently under contract by another team, we can still guess at it. Fans aren’t front office executives, but that doesn’t mean they can’t try to be!

For the purpose of getting some outside opinions on him, I asked four fellow FanSided site experts what they would give up for Karlsson, assuming they know he’ll sign an extension. Here are the answers I got. I’ll break down each offer. Please check out their sites as well!

Hypothetical Trades

Anaheim Ducks (Pucks of a Feather): Hampus Lindholm, Max Jones, Kevin Boyle, 2019 first-round pick.

The Ducks are lacking in top-tier prospects, so they have to find another way to provide value. Hampus Lindholm, a 24-year old defenseman with a $5.205 annual cap hit through the 2021-22 season, is the kind of guy the Senators should be targetting.

Max Jones was the first-round pick of the 2016 NHL Draft for the Ducks. His numbers were expected to go up after having the misfortune of being stuck behind Christian Dvorak, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mitch Marner on the depth chart. Unfortunately, injuries haven’t been kind to him. Jones has 60 points in his last 58 OHL games, so he still has value.

Kevin Boyle is a goaltender who has posted very good numbers in the AHL and might be a backup goalie in the NHL. The 2019 first-round pick might be more valuable to the Senators than a 2018 pick.

Grade: B. This is very close to being a fair offer. Replace Boyle with Sam Steele and, if I’m the Senators, I at least consider it.

Nashville Predators (Predlines): Ryan Ellis, Miikka Salomaki, Emil Petterson, 2019 2nd-round pick.

Ellis is another great guy for the Senators to target. First of all, he’s dirt cheap until the end of the 2018-19 season. After that, Ellis is scheduled to become a free agent. He’ll be much cheaper than Karlsson to keep around. Also, Ellis is extremely good and a proven top-four defenseman, potentially a top pairing caliber one.

Miika Salomaki is a quality fourth liner who can be thrown to the wolves defensively and handle himself. He’ll be a restricted free agent after this season and he’ll be 25 years old this summer. Emil Petterson is doing quite well for the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL. In his first season in North America, he has 34 points in 51 games (as of March 1). Not too shabby.

Grade: C+. Ellis is a nice start and Salomaki has value. But the centerpiece of this deal for Ottawa should be Eeli Tolvanen or Dante Fabbro. They need to get at least one top-tier prospect for Karlsson. Also, that second-round pick needs to be a first-rounder.

Calgary Flames (Flame For Thought): Mark Giordano, Sam Bennett, Oliver Kylington.

Giordano is aging, but he’s still a top-tier defenseman. I’m not sure the Senators would want an aging asset like the Flames captain, though. Sam Bennett is a great guy for Ottawa to target. A change of scenery would be a good thing for the fourth overall pick of the 2014 draft.

The way the Flames blueline is set up, Kylington has a lot of obstacles to overcome to be an everyday NHLer. He has far more value to a team like the Senators than Calgary because of this.

Grade: C. No first-round picks makes this a sub-optimal trade for the Senators. If you replace Giordano with Dougie Hamilton, I’m not sure the Flames would do that trade.

Boston Bruins (Causeway Crowd): RHD Brandon Carlo, RW Zach Senyshyn, C Trent Frederic, 2019 second-round pick

Carlo is a young NHL caliber defenseman. He’s been getting top-four minutes and tends to make good decisions in his own zone. That said, Carlo’s lack of offense is a bit concerning. However, he’d be a nice piece for the Senators’ future.

Zach Senyshyn is perhaps best known as the guy the Bruins picked over Brock Boeser, Kyle Connor, and Mathew Barzal in 2016. He’ll be 21 this summer. Senyshyn has 18 points in 47 games in the AHL this season. His offensive instincts are very solid and he should be a producer for Ottawa perhaps as soon as next season.

Trent Frederic was selected by the Bruins in the 2016 NHL Draft. His stock has gone up after an impressive performance at the World Juniors. Frederic is excelling at the NHL prospect factory known as the University of Wisconsin.

Grade: A-. This is a very fair offer. Replace the second-round pick with a first-rounder and I think that gets it done. Of course, the Senators might force the Bruins to pay a premium since they’re a division rival.

Even from hypothetical trade offers, we can see what it’s going to take. A young, cost-controlled player (preferably a defenseman). At least two high-end prospects with at least one being close to the elite tier. A first-round pick.

Next: How Each NHL Team Could Trade For Erik Karlsson

The market for Karlsson will likely drive the price up even higher. It will take a lot to acquire the two-time Norris Trophy winner. And rightfully so. The Senators can’t afford to get anything less than a stellar return for Karlsson.

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