Calgary Flames: What if Calgary Settled the Joe Nieuwendyk Contract Dispute
On December 19, 1995, the Calgary Flames traded Joe Nieuwendyk, one of the best players in franchise history. What if the Flames settled the Nieuwendyk contract dispute?
Joe Nieuwendyk is one of the greatest players in NHL history and one of the best players in Calgary Flames history. During the 1995-96 season, however, he was unhappy with his contract situation. So Nieuwendyk held out until he was traded to the Dallas Stars. The return included perhaps the singular greatest Calgary Flames player – Jarome Iginla.
But what if the Flames figured out a long-term deal with Nieuwendyk, keeping him and never trading for Iginla? What would the Flames’ franchise history look like without their greatest player?
The Dallas Stars get to keep Iginla, meaning their success is extended, and Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn‘s line is that much more dangerous when it was first formed.
Immediate Impact
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The biggest thing about the Nieuwendyk contract is it doesn’t affect the salary cap since the cap won’t exist for another decade. So the Flames can pay whoever they want to, as long as the owner approves it.
In 1995-96, their team included Theoren Fleury, German Titov, and Michael Nylander at forward and Phil Housley, James Patrick and Zarley Zalapski on defense. Gary Roberts also made an impact, scoring 22 goals and 42 points in 35 games.
Now add Nieuwendyk to that equation as the first line center, playing with Fleury and Titov, and the Flames have one of the better lines in the NHL. Nieuwendyk had a points-per-game rate of 0.67 that year, which equates to 55 points over a full season. That includes 21 goals. With an elite talent like Fleury, those totals would likely be higher.
Nieuwendyk also had three game-winning goals for the Stars that season. He gets closer to five with the Calgary Flames. Five more wins for the Flames means they go from second in the Pacific division and sixth in the Western Conference to fourth in the West and a much closer race in the Pacific.
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Playoffs
Fourth in the West gives the Calgary Flames a matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs, which means a lot of travel. Still, I like Calgary’s odds against a Toronto team better than against the 1995-96 Chicago Blackhawks, who swept the Flames.
That team included Chris Chelios, Jeremy Roenick, Tony Amonte, Denis Savard, Gary Suter, and Ed Belfour. The Maple Leafs had Mats Sundin, Doug Gilmour, and Larry Murphy, but Felix Potvin is not Belfour, especially not in the playoffs.
I think Calgary takes a series, but they’re not beating the Detroit Red Wings in round two. Not that version of the Red Wings, coached by Scotty Bowman.
Long-Term Outlook
From 1997-2004, the Flames never made the playoffs. Seven years without a playoff run is a long time. That’s not the fault of Iginla, as the Flames went through a lot of change. During that time, Iginla actually put up 20+ goals six times, and won the Art Ross and should have won the Hart.
That’s not something Nieuwendyk ever would have accomplished. The best he did was the Conn Smythe during the Stars’ 1999 Cup run. Still, the Calgary Flames would be better off in the short-term with Joe Nieuwendyk than Jarome Iginla. In the long-run, though? Iginla brought the Flames within a changed goal call from the Stanley Cup. I don’t think Nieuwendyk is that good.
This is the first “what if?” in this series where I think the team would be worse off. It’s not the last.
But with Nieuwendyk at the helm, the Flames aren’t missing seven straight playoffs. As the Flames add Dave Gagner, the second line gets bolstered. Fleury likely doesn’t see the 30-point cliff that he had from 1996 to 1997 with Nieuwendyk. They came in fifth in the Pacific, 10th in the West without Nieuwendyk. That’s because the offense fell off. I don’t think they see as big of a fall with Nieuwendyk.
In 1998-99, the Flames were just six points out of the final playoff spot. What they were missing was more than Nieuwendyk could provide, but he might let a player like Cory Stillman play on the second line with lower expectations, which could provide Calgary more depth. Still, I don’t think that Nieuwendyk approaches Iginla’s 28 goals.
Nieuwendyk’s impact would be different than Iginla’s, but that doesn’t mean it would be better (or, for that matter, necessarily worse).