Edmonton Oilers are wasting Connor McDavid

Just when you thought the Edmonton Oilers climbed back out of the basement, they’ve stumbled back in despite Connor McDavid’s best efforts.

The Edmonton Oilers used to be a really good team. They won a ton of Stanley Cups in the 1980’s and were at least relevant in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. However, losing in the 2006 Stanley Cup Finals to the Carolina Hurricanes (after losing their starting goalie due to injury) destroyed them. For the next decade, they were the butt of everyone’s joke. And then the Oilers drafted Connor McDavid.

This should have been a franchise-altering move. McDavid was the highest rated prospect since Sidney Crosby. It’s one thing to have a ton of hype. But it’s quite another to live up to it. So far, McDavid is exceeding his hype.

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After the 2017-18 season, which saw number 97 win the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay, and Hart Trophy, everyone thought the Oilers were done being a miserably bad team. Edmonton proved everyone wrong, having one of the most disappointing NHL seasons in recent history.

McDavid, however, has been far from a disappointment. As a matter of fact, he has already passed last season’s point total. McDavid has 100 points last season, becoming the third player to record triple digits in points since the 2012-13 lockout. He picked up his 100th point this season against the Columbus Blue Jackets and has 102 as of March 28.

If for some odd reason you love plus-minus, McDavid’s is slightly worse this year (+27 last year compared to +22). But if you consider how terrible the Oilers are, having a plus-minus rating of +22 is arguably more impressive than having a +27 rating on a really good team.

McDavid still has five games left, but he’s already surpassed his Hart Trophy season numbers in just about every category. Let’s take a quick look. All of these stats are at even strength. Game score is a stat popularized by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic. You can read up on it here. Scoring chance data is from Natural Stat Trick. All other stats are from Corsica. xGF stands for expected goals for percentage.

His possession numbers are slightly down, but they are still extremely impressive and among the league’s leaders. McDavid won’t win the Hart Trophy this year because his team is so freaking awful they can’t make the playoffs despite having a generational talent. But he should win his second straight Art Ross and Ted Lindsay awards.

Just how rare is it to miss the playoffs with someone like McDavid? Let’s use “era-adjusted points”. This is a stat that adjusts points to show how impressive a season is. For example, 100 points now is far more meaningful than 100 points in the 1980’s. McDavid has 111 era-adjusted points thus far, so that’s the cutoff point.

A skater has gotten at least 111 era-adjusted points in a season 75 times since the start of the 1967-68 season (or the start of the non-Original Six era). If you remove lockout-shortened seasons, the number falls to 71. Shoutout to Martin St. Louis (2012-13) and Alex Zhamnov (1994-95) for having at least 111 era-adjusted points in lockout-shortened seasons for non-playoff teams.

Only one player fits the criteria – Mario Lemieux back in 1987-88. Super Mario led the league in scoring by 19 points, besting Wayne Gretzky 168 to 149. He also led the NHL in goals with 70. Had it not been for a silly playoff format, the Penguins would have made it. Their point percentage (.506) was better than six of the teams to make the postseason.

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McDavid is having a historically great season considering how bad the Oilers have been. Imagine how much better it could be if Edmonton didn’t have the NHL’s least effective power-play. McDavid’s doing most of his damage at even strength. So, congratulations, Oilers. No team wastes generational talent like you guys. Go ahead. Put that on a banner and raise it to the rafters.

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