Anaheim Ducks: John Gibson should have been a Vezina Trophy finalist

Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson’s absence from the list of Vezina Trophy finalists is baffling.

Each year, NHL general managers vote on the Vezina Trophy, which goes to the league’s top goaltender. On Tuesday, April 17, the list of the top three finishers, or finalists, was released. Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators, Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets, and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning were on the list. Shockingly, Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson’s name was absent.

Had it not been for him, the Ducks would not have made the playoffs. Gibson has a better save percentage, quality start percentage, and goals saved above average than Hellebuyck and Vasilevksiy. Objectively, the Ducks goaltender was at least one of the three best goalies in the league. Ergo, Gibson should have been a finalist. But he wasn’t.

Let’s compare Gibson, Hellebuyck, and Vasilevskiy using these metrics and a randomly selected stat that people tend to overvalue. The leader in each category is bolded.

As you can see, the general managers voted for the goalies who won the most games. Rinne, by the way, won 42 games, which was the third-most in the NHL. The top two in wins were Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy.

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It’s hard to argue either of the two are better than Gibson. Hellebuyck is at least comparable, but the Ducks goaltender still holds a lead in most metrics. Gibson should at the very least have been a finalist over Vasilevskiy.

Though the Lightning goaltender was outstanding in the first half, he was dreadful in the second half. Maybe fatigue caused Vasilevskiy’s dip in production after the All-Star break. After all, this was his first full season as the number one goaltender in Tampa. Vasilevskiy went from starting 47 games and appearing in 50 to starting 64 and appearing in 65. That’s a significant jump.

Gibson’s Vezina finalist snub tells us several things. First of all, general managers still don’t know how to evaluate goaltenders. Wins tell you how great a team is. They don’t do an effective job of telling you how great a goaltender is. Are wins used as a stat to evaluate defensemen or centers? Of course not, there are far better stats to use. Points, goals, assists, and possession numbers are significantly more relevant to evaluating how good a skater is than wins.

Secondly, there are better metrics to use when evaluating goalies than wins. Even stats like save percentage can be flawed, as certain goalies see more dangerous scoring chances than others. Luckily, goals saved above average creates a more level playing field to evaluate goalies than raw save percentage.

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While Gibson’s absence from the Vezina Trophy finalist list is sad, there are many things the hockey community can learn from it. The main one is evaluating goaltenders is a difficult task.