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Nashville Predators: Pekka Rinne should win Vezina Trophy

By Dave Stevenson

DENVER, CO - APRIL 18: Goaltender Pekka Rinne #35 of the Nashville Predators looks on during a break in the action against the Colorado Avalanche in Game Four of the Western Conference First Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Pepsi Center on April 18, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Predators defeated the Avalanche 3-2. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - APRIL 18: Goaltender Pekka Rinne #35 of the Nashville Predators looks on during a break in the action against the Colorado Avalanche in Game Four of the Western Conference First Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Pepsi Center on April 18, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Predators defeated the Avalanche 3-2. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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After falling short several times, Nashville Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne deserves to win his first Vezina Trophy

Each season, the Vezina Trophy goes to the best goaltender in the NHL. Any award including “best” or “most valuable” in its description is subjective and should be treated as such. This season, the Vezina Finalists are Nashville Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne, Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, and Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

While it’s a shame Anaheim Ducks goalie John Gibson wasn’t a part of the list, this is pretty spot on. The first two finalists were arguably the two best goaltenders in the league while the last tied for the league lead in wins. It’s not surprising general managers (who vote on the Vezina) value wins more highly than others.

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So who deserves to win the Vezina Trophy among the finalists? If you asked me who the most talented goalie in the NHL is, I’d say it’s Vasilevskiy hands down. His athleticism is eye-popping. Vasilevskiy makes difficult saves seem routine. Tampa Bay was patient with him and it’s paying off.

However, there’s a huge difference been “best goaltender” and “most talented”. Vasilevskiy started strong but had a bad second half. This is likely due to a combination of fatigue and the Lightning coasting to an Atlantic Division title.

Because postseason performance is irrelevant, his recent renaissance against the New Jersey Devils, while impressive, shouldn’t be factored in. If Vasilevskiy’s positioning improves and he adjusts to being the guy in Tampa, he’s a future winner.

This leaves Hellebuyck versus Rinne. Two goaltenders who, ironically, came into the 2017-18 season with uncertainty. The former’s team brought in Steve Mason to be the starting goalie while the latter had to fight off Juuse Saros, who has a save percentage of at least .923 in each of the past two seasons as his backup.

Both goaltenders deserve credit for having outstanding seasons. But who’s been better?

The Case For Rinne

Across the board, Rinne has an advantage over Hellebuyck. He has a higher save percentage, goals saved above average, and quality starts percentage. But those stats alone don’t tell you how good a goaltender has been.

Expected goals against is a relatively new stat. It still has its wrinkles, but it helps put shot quality in context. These stats are during all situations and are courtesy of Corsica.

There’s a narrative that the Predators defense bails Rinne out quite a bit. This has been true in recent seasons. However, all that matters is this season. And this season, the Predators have been allowing more high-danger chances. Rinne’s been up to the task.

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At the age of 35, the Predators goaltender had arguably his second-best NHL season. And he did it while facing more difficult chances against than he did in his best season. Hellebuyck is a worthy candidate, but it’s clear Rinne should be the winner.

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