Stanley Cup Playoffs 2018: Golden Knights vs. Capitals preview, prediction

The Washington Capitals will square off against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final as the Stanley Cup Playoffs 2018 come to an end

Back in October, people would have laughed at the mere thought of the Washington Capitals, perennial playoff disappointments, and the Vegas Golden Knights, an expansion team in its first season, squaring off in the Stanley Cup Final. However, the Stanley Cup Playoffs 2018 will conclude with those two teams fighting for the crown.

The Caps have proven their critics wrong during an impressive postseason run. During each series, Washington has had their backs against the wall at some point. Each time, they responded by winning. It’s funny to think the Caps were inches away from trailing the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-0 in the first round. But hockey’s a game of inches, so perhaps that’s appropriate.

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In the second round, they slew their largest postseason demon in the Pittsburgh Penguins. And the Caps won the deciding Game 6 without forwards Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, or Andre Burakovsky.

Even though they won the first two games of the Eastern Conference Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning, they lost the next three games. Having not won a home game in the series, the Caps returned home for Game 6 and won 3-0. A 4-0 win in Game 7 put them in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1998. It also put an end to the “Alex Ovechkin is a choker” narratives. This team isn’t like those of the past. They’ve proven their past playoff failures are irrelevant.

Ironically, goaltender Braden Holtby didn’t even start the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Caps starting goalie. He was on the bench to begin the first round after a disappointing regular season. However, after reclaiming his role as the starting goalie, Holtby has led the Capitals to a 12-5 record. He ended the Eastern Conference Final with two consecutive shutouts.

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights need no introduction. They are the most successful first-year expansion team of all-time in any professional sport. Only the St. Louis Blues have done with the Knights have done – make a championship appearance in their first year. However, the Blues only did so because an expansion team was guaranteed a spot in the Stanley Cup Final.

Many predicted Vegas to finish towards the bottom of the standings. However, it became obvious early on that the Knights didn’t get this memo. They won eight of their first 11 games in their first month. At the All-Star break, the Golden Knights had the best record in the Western Conference.

So many things have gone right for Vegas, it’s almost like a Hollywood script. Who would have guessed William Karlsson, who scored 16 goals in his previous three seasons, would score 43 goals? Deryk Engelland, previously a journeyman third-pairing defenseman, emerged as a hero for his hometown and has been one of their best blueliners.

Led by goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, the Knights have kept their magical run going throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He’s having one of the best postseasons of any goalie ever, posting a .947 save percentage through 15 games. Fleury was so good against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, the Knights only scored seven goals in four games and they still swept them.

Ultimately, this series will probably come down to goaltending. Goalies are the ultimate equalizers in the playoffs. A hot goalie can extend a run while a cold one can quickly snuff it out (or vice-versa, depending on which side of the ice you’re on).

Fleury and Holtby are both elite goaltenders with impressive track records. The former has won three Stanley Cups, playing a significant role in two of them. Meanwhile, Holtby won the 2015-16 Vezina Trophy and was named a Vezina Trophy finalist the next season.

Prediction

You can throw anything that has happened in the past out the window. These Capitals have proven they’re different from their past versions. They’ve conquered in situations when they’ve been conquered in the past.

Neither side has a significant advantage in any category. The Capitals have a slight advantage on offense, but defensively, the Golden Knights hold the slight advantage. Vegas has the goaltending advantage, but Holtby’s the toughest goalie they’ve had to face. This is also true of Fleury and the Caps.

As far as depth, Vegas is impressive, but Washington gets more contributions from their depth players. Specifically, Lars Eller and Devante Smith-Pelly have been huge for them. If Andre Burakovsky can build off his outstanding Game 7 performance against the Lightning, the Caps will have a pretty big advantage there.

This series, as most are, will be determined by two things. First of all, which goaltender can steal games? In the postseason, if you have a goalie who can steal games, that can be a significant factor, especially in a short seven-game series. Both Fleury and Holtby have proven to be capable of doing so.

Secondly, who gets bigger contributions from their non-stars? Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and T.J. Oshie are going to make a difference. Likewise, for Vegas, Erik Haula, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Karlsson, David Perron, and James Neal are going to get on the scoresheet. But ultimately, whoever can get more from their bottom six forwards is probably going to win.

Next: Ranking Each NHL Team's All-Time Starting Lineup

Prediction: Capitals over Golden Knights in seven games.

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