Defenseman Ryan Merkley might have the most upside of any defenseman in the 2018 NHL Draft, but he’s also by a wide margin the biggest risk
Prospects are by nature unpredictable. They are not truly tangible things. Some pan out. Others don’t. For this reason, many consider the draft a crapshoot after about the top 10 picks. The 2018 NHL Draft will be no different. And no prospect in the 2018 draft has more “boom or bust” potential than defenseman Ryan Merkley.
Other than Rasmus Dahlin, he probably has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the 2018 draft. Merkley is immensely talented. Purely based on talent, he should be a top-five pick. However, because of a variety of factors, Merkley is a significant risk.
Prospect Profile
Height: 5’11” (181 cm)
Weight: 170 pounds (77 kilograms)
Team: Guelph Storm (OHL); Canada Under 18 (WJC)
Country: Canada
Position: Defenseman
Handedness: Right-handed
Date of birth: Aug. 14, 2000
OHL regular season stats: 63 games, 13 goals, 54 assists, 67 points, 63 penalty minutes
OHL postseason stats: Six games, one goal, five assists, six points
WJC stats: Five games, zero goals, three assists, three points
Average Prospect Ranking*: 24.5*
All profile info is courtesy of Elite Prospects.
*Merkley is only ranked by Future Considerations and McKeen’s hockey
Strengths
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Ryan Merkley has borderline elite-level offensive skills. He’s outstanding with the puck. Merkley possesses one of the best shots in the 2018 NHL Draft. Not only that, he’s an exceptional passer. In transition, Merkley is extremely dangerous.
When he’s on the top of his game, few defensemen can make the difference he can. Merkley possesses immense potential. There’s a lot to love about his game on offense. Merkley’s skating is well above-average and is one of the best parts about his game.
Weaknesses
Ryan Merkley has top 10 pick talent. So how come he’s not in several people’s top 30 and why does he hover around that area on most lists? It’s because Merkley’s defense is horrendous. I’m not much of a plus-minus guy, but he had a -29 rating.
Merkley’s defense was bad despite being relatively sheltered. His goals for percentage ranked among the worst in the OHL and he was a detriment to his team. Considering how productive Merkley was, that’s almost impressive (in a really bad way).
Away from the puck, he struggles a lot. Merkley’s positioning is terrible. But what I find most concerning is there are numerous times I’ve seen him show the kind of unawareness I’d expect to see from a novice.
What They’re Saying About Him
"“He finds players you aren’t supposed to find and he’s so light on his edges that he effortlessly changes directions with the puck.” – Scott Wheeler (The Athletic)“Based on pure skill alone, Merkley is a first-rounder. Unfortunately, There are many layers to this onion.” – Sam Cosentino – Sportsnet"
Highlights
Overall Outlook
Merkley’s talent is unquestionable. He deserves to be drafted in the first round because of that alone. I could see him fall like Alex Debrincat (except it would be warranted with Merkley). There are some red flags in his game and I understand if teams are hesitant to take a risk on him.
That said, I’ve seen enough encouraging things about his game to say he’s worth taking a chance on. There’s so much to love about his game. Merkley addressed a lot of his issues at the 2018 NHL combine and I must say I’m impressed with how well he handled himself.
I could see him developing into a fringe top pairing defenseman. Merkley has enough skill to at least be a competent power-play quarterback. Whoever drafts him must be patient with him and let him develop.
Next: 2018 NHL Mock Draft Version 3.0 - Post-Lottery
Player Comparison
He reminds me of Tyson Barrie. Obviously, the Colorado Avalanche defenseman developed quite well. But both are very confident with the puck and can be downright lethal. Also, they possess the rare ability to make you cheer one minute and shake your head the next.
For all of our prospect profiles, check out our 2018 NHL Draft hub page!