Toronto Maple Leafs: Predicting forward goal totals
By Carson Trask
After acquiring JohnTavares, the Toronto Maple Leafs have arguably the greatest group of forwards in the NHL. But just how many goals will their forwards score?
The Toronto Maple Leafs have the best forward group in the NHL. The news of John Tavares signing with the Leafs still seems surreal. Fans have gotten their hopes up too many times that a hometown kid would come to play for the blue and white, only to have their hearts broken.
It finally happened. The contingent of Kyle Dubas, Brendan Shanahan, and Mike Babcock, as well as reported pitches from Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, got Tavares to leave the only pro team he has ever known. In doing so, the Maple Leafs now boast three centers who scored at least 30 goals last season, making them a matchup nightmare.
Nazem Kadri will get to feast on third pairing defensemen as the number three center, while Tavares or Mathews will get second pairings on a given night. Connor Brown, who scored 20 goals in 2016-17, looks destined for the fourth line, giving the Leafs an embarrassment of riches throughout their forward group.
With all that being said, let’s predict how many goals each Maple Leafs forward will score this season. This is under the assumption that every player plays a full 82 game season.
Auston Matthews
What makes Matthews so special is his five-on-five impact. Of Mathews 74 goals through his first two seasons, only 13 have come on the power play (17 percent).
Matthews has already proven to be one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. His four-goal first game showed the world his “generational talent” label he has been given since he was 15 years old wasn’t just hyperbole. He has changed a franchise starving for a face since the departure of Mats Sundin in 2008.
What makes Matthews so special is his five-on-five impact. Of Mathews 74 goals through his first two seasons, only 13 have come on the power play (17 percent). In contrast, Alex Ovechkin has scored 38 percent of his career goals on the power play, while Steven Stamkos has scored 36 percent of his career goals on the PP.
Matthews put together a 40 goal rookie campaign, followed by 34 as a sophomore in just 62 games without much power play production. Star players across the league pad their stats with the man advantage. Matthews has yet to get much power play time.
When he does, look out. Babcock has drawn criticism at times for Matthews’ lack of ice time. With the arrival of John Tavares, while his goal total likely won’t go up that much simply because it can’t get much better, Babcock will get creative in certain situations and put his two best centers together at five-on-five.
2018-19 goal prediction: 45