NHL Metropolitan Division: Each team’s breakout candidate
The Metropolitan Division is among the NHL’s most talented and competitive. Which players could be the next stars? Here’s a look at each team’s breakout player.
Few divisions in the NHL have as much elite talent as the Metropolitan Division. Even after factoring in John Tavares‘s departure to the Atlantic Division, Mathew Barzal was a breakout player, replacing him as the Islanders best center. There’s also Alex Ovechkin, Braden Holtby, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Seth Jones, and Taylor Hall, just to name a few.
But let’s look past all those stars. It’s easy to overlook players because of how great those around them are. Each season, whether you play fantasy hockey or not, it’s a lot of fun to keep an eye out for breakout candidates.
First, let’s define what a “breakout candidate” is because people use the term a lot, so its meaning is sometimes lost. These players are guys who are very promising but might not be known to the casual hockey fan. However, each of these players has the potential to be a household name as soon as next season or to significantly increase their production.
These players should be on everyone’s radar. Because, whether it’s because of an increased role or impressive underlying numbers, each of them is most likely going to be significantly better in 2018-19. Most of these players are younger, for somewhat obvious reasons.
Before we begin, let’s take a look at some honorable mentions. While Andre Burakovsky‘s role with the Washington Capitals has declined, he still has a ton of potential. If he can stay healthy (which he has struggled to do), he could be primed for a breakout season. Getting away from former head coach Barry Trotz, who never really trusted him that much, could be a great thing for him.
The New York Islanders have a number of intriguing young forwards, but since their lineup is a huge question mark, I didn’t include them. Instead, I went with a much more obvious candidate, who we’ll get to later.
Carolina Hurricanes – Sebastian Aho
The Carolina Hurricanes have undergone some significant changes. Whether these changes will be good or bad remain to be seen. But one thing is undeniable – the Hurricanes are getting younger and are showing a lot of faith in their young players.
Carolina’s putting an impressive amount of faith in Sebastian Aho to take the next step in 2018-19. He’s already one of the league’s most underrated players. At the age of 20, he set career highs with 29 goals and 36 assists for 65 points. The 2015 NHL Draft class is a darn good one and Aho ranked seventh among players with at least 50 games played in points per game.
Without Jeff Skinner around, the Hurricanes will be relying on their young Finnish forward to pick up the slack. Though second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov should certainly give him some help too.
Aho has also been a very good possession player. Combine that with his lethal abilities in the offensive zone and you have someone on the verge of greatness. Aho has a shooting percentage of over 10 percent in each of his first two seasons. It still might be a bit too early to tell, but it appears he’s at worst a very good finisher and potentially a great one.
Right now, only fans of the Metropolitan Division know who Aho is. He’s that Hurricanes forward who made your goalie look silly last year. By this time next summer, Aho could be someone who a lot more people are familiar with.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Pierre-Luc Dubois
The Columbus Blue Jackets are a young team, so they had a number of options here. Oliver Bjorkstrand is certainly someone to keep an eye on because he can shoot and score goals, which is always a nice skill set to have. However, Pierre-Luc Dubois will be in a great position to succeed and should push for 50 or more points next season.
At the age of 19, he put up 20 goals and 28 assists for 48 points in his first NHL season. Down the stretch, Dubois became one of head coach John Tortorella’s most trusted forwards, which says a lot because he’s usually slow to trust younger players. He finished last season with the 10th best points per game ratio (0.59) among rookies (minimum 50 games played).
Additionally, Dubois had excellent underlying numbers. The Blue Jackets were a great team who dominated possession and, of their forwards with at least 500 minutes at five-on-five, only Artemi Panarin had a higher relative CorsiFor percentage. Dubois was also an important member of their second power-play unit and should see more time on the man advantage this season.
Another reason to be excited about him is he’ll likely continue to get playing time with Panarin (assuming the bread man isn’t traded). One reason players can suffer a sophomore slump is because they aren’t put into ideal situations. However, it’s hard not to be excited about what Dubois could do in 2018-19.
New Jersey Devils – Will Butcher
The New Jersey Devils were last year’s biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference. Led by an impressive core of young players, they exceeded everyone’s expectations and made the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nico Hischier is well on his way to becoming a household name, but let’s take a look at defenseman Will Butcher.
Hobey Baker winners don’t have a good history of producing in the NHL. Butcher has so far defied the odds. After winning the Hobey Baker in 2016-17, he decided to not sign with the Colorado Avalanche and tested free agency. The Devils signed him and Butcher wound up being one of the most productive rookies last season.
Despite only getting about 16 minutes of ice time per game, he still put up 44 points (five goals and 39 assists). Butcher made a name for himself on the power-play, picking up 23 power-play points (three goals and 20 assists). His 7.93 percent relative CorsiFor percentage at five-on-five was the best among all Devils defensemen (minimum 500 minutes).
Expect Butcher to get more playing time in 2018-19. He has earned it by dominating in a third-pairing role. It’s undeniable Butcher was sheltered. But, given the outstanding success he had, it’s hard to see him not getting more playing time moving forward.
New York Islanders – Ryan Pulock
The New York Islanders defense cost them a lot of games last season. Part of the blame lies on the goaltending, which was abysmal, to say the least. However, most of the blame must be shifted on the blueline, which allowed the most goals in the NHL and the most shots against as well.
Expect some changes next season. New head coach Barry Trotz is going to have his work cut out for him. The Islanders’ best defenseman is probably Nick Leddy, and he’s not a true number one defenseman. However, Trotz should find a reliable defenseman with a lot of offensive upside in Ryan Pulock.
When you watch him play, you see a lot of the things the Washington Capitals loved in John Carlson. Pulock can put up points and play effectively in his own end. Last season, he put up 32 points in 68 games. And, considering how horrible the Islanders were defensively, the fact that he nearly broke even in five-on-five goal differential (-4) is mighty impressive.
Pulock was a very solid power-play producer in the AHL, so it should come as no surprise he put up 11 points on the man advantage last season. It’ll be interesting to see what the Islanders do with their power-play, but expect him to be on their second unit, though he might earn himself a promotion to the first unit. Trotz knows Carlson well, and much like him, Pulock’s a dual threat who can shoot or pass from the point.
New York Rangers – Pavel Buchnevich
The New York Rangers have a number of players to keep an eye on. However, none of them are more skilled than forward Pavel Buchnevich. Despite getting overlooked constantly by Alain Vigneault, he wound up being one of the Rangers most productive forwards.
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Buchnevich was the 10th most used Blueshirts forward last season at five-on-five. Despite this, he still ranked pretty favorable among Rangers forwards in five-on-five points per hour, ranking eighth. Buchnevich proved to be an outstanding playmaker, as his 1.12 assists per hour ranked fifth and his 0.73 primary assists per hour ranked fourth.
He finished fourth on the Rangers in points (43) and second in assists (29). Buchnevich will be getting a well-deserved fresh start this season under new head coach David Quinn. He was never a fit under Vigneault, but Quinn’s system should bring out the best in the young Russian forward.
If the Rangers can fix their power-play, that should make Buchnevich even more productive. He put up 17 power play points last season on the second power-play unit. Frankly, Buchnevich should have been on the first unit. He will most likely be on that first unit under Quinn.
Sometimes, all a player needs to breakout is a coach who will trust them. It’s clear Vigneault was never going to trust Buchnevich. If Quinn does, expect Buchnevich to reward him.
Philadelphia Flyers – Nolan Patrick
The Philadelphia Flyers are a hard team to figure out. Will they be contenders next season? Or will last season merely a fluke? Nolan Patrick should help to answer those questions. He will likely start next season as the Flyers second-line center. If Patrick can continue to develop on schedule, he should be a household name within the next few years.
Last season, he got off to a very rough start. This can be chalked up to a variety of factors, the largest being an offseason injury. It’s hard enough to go from playing against teenagers to playing against men. It’s even harder to do so when you don’t have a healthy offseason.
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Before the All-Star break, Patrick had just nine points in his first 40 games and was struggling mightily. But something clicked for him during the break, because after the All-Star break, he put up 21 points in 33 games. Patrick also earned a spot on the Flyers power-play, which should help his production increase in 2018-19 if he can keep it.
This summer, Patrick will have the benefit of a full, healthy offseason. One of the biggest keys to the Flyers’ success next season will be ensuring he avoids the sophomore slump. Philly is putting a lot of faith in him. The Flyers are hoping they see more of the second-half version of Patrick.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Jake Guentzel
The Pittsburgh Penguins lineup is pretty well set, so it’s going to be hard for a younger player to burst on through. So why not go with the constantly improving Jake Guentzel? First off, anyone who gets regular playing time with Sidney Crosby should expect their production to go up. With the departure of Conor Sheary, Guentzel’s got Crosby all to himself.
Last season, he averaged 0.59 points per game, putting up 48 points (22 goals and 26 assists) in 82 games. During the postseason, Guentzel once again proved that he can step up his game on the biggest stage. He was a hero during the 2016-17 Stanley Cup run and he put up 10 goals and 21 points in just 12 games in 2017-18.
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Guentzel struggled mightily last season on defense, though this was a problem across the board for the Penguins. Can Pittsburgh get better on defense? This will be key, as Guentzel’s coming up on a contract year. He’ll be a restricted free agent after next season. If Guentzel can improve on both ends of the ice and avoid a slow start, he could earn himself a huge pay raise.
He’s proven he can be an outstanding player in the postseason. Guentzel needs to prove he can be one in the regular season. Expect him to do so next season.
Washington Capitals – Jakub Vrana
The Washington Capitals are looking to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. They’re returning a very large portion of their roster from last season, which is quite encouraging. However, the Capitals are banking on Jakub Vrana to build on his strong postseason and become more consistent.
Last season, Vrana put up 27 points in 73 games. Considering he got minimal power-play time and struggled to find a consistent spot in the lineup, that’s impressive. In the postseason, Vrana primarily played on the second forward line.
He put up eight points (three goals and five assists), though many believe he was much better than those numbers would suggest. Two of his three goals, though, were game winners.
Trotz has his issues with younger players like Vrana, so maybe Todd Reirden will give him a little bit more freedom. He also gives the Capitals an intriguing option on the top forward line. If the Caps need offense, Vrana proved he can play up there and generate a spark. However, the top line trio with him struggled defensively. Though it’s nice to know Vrana can play up there if needed.
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Most likely, he will be expected to give the second line a true scoring threat. Of the 368 forwards to play at least 500 minutes at five-on-five, Vrana placed 28th in individual scoring chances per hour. He also placed 49th in shots on goal per hour at five-on-five. Vrana did a good job playing well enough defensively to earn a spot on the second line. Now the Capitals are expecting him to show why they drafted him in the first round in 2014.