Toronto Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner versus William Nylander

The Toronto Maple Leafs are loaded at center. However, they also have two of the best wings in the NHL – Mitch Marner and William Nylander.

Mitch Marner and William Nylander have quickly established themselves as top wingers in the NHL during their first two seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Every game, they make jaw-dropping plays to bring the crowd out of their seats.

The wing position tends to be undervalued because top centers and defensemen are viewed as the building blocks of a team. Meanwhile, wingers are seen as being far easier to find and, ergo, more replaceable.

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Elite centers and true number one defensemen are hard to acquire, which makes them so valuable. While it’s true that wings are easier to find, Nylander and Marner have proven to be exceptions to the rule.

They both have the ability to carry a line from the wing position. Take their position out of it and they are special players. A large majority of the hockey media has created a narrative. This narrative implies, at some point, the Leafs will need to trade one of their young stars. Nylander is usually the player they mention.

The salary cap looks to have finally reached a point where it is going to consistently increase each season. Thanks to this, the Maple Leafs should be able to afford to keep the big three of Auston Matthews, Marner, and Nylander together for a long time.

The Leafs need some help on the blueline and Nylander is viewed as the player who could get them a good defenseman in return. However, the defense isn’t as bad as people think and Toronto would lose the trade if he is involved.

Which brings us to the head to head of Marner versus Nylander. The overwhelming belief is the former is the better player. Marner is untouchable while Nylander is often seen as trade bait. The fact is, Nylander is right on par with Marner and needs to be talked about as such.

Let’s take a deep dive into analytics to see just how close these two players are at five-on-five in their first two seasons.

2016-17 Assists/Scoring

Heading into the 2016-17 season, Nylander had a leg up on Marner. Nylander was put into 22 games the season before, so he had the NHL experience, Marner didn’t. The Leafs had one of the best rookie classes of all time and the 61 points each by Marner and Nylander were a big reason why.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Marner had the upper hand in five-on-five goals per hour (0.86 to 0.63), primary assists per hour (0.75 to 0.57), total assists per hour (1.32 to 1.14), total points per hour ( 2.18 to 1.77) and shooting percentage (12.1 to 7.86).

What is surprising about these first season numbers is Marner had the better goals per hour rate. Nylander is believed to be the more natural goal scorer of the two. The fact Marner was better shows he isn’t just a one trick pony.

The only stats Nylander was better at than Marner was shots on goal per hour (7.99 to 7.11) and individual shot attempts per hour (14.46 per 13.42). Even though their point totals ended up identical, Marner simply outperformed Nylander in their rookie campaigns.

That’s not to say Nylander had a bad season by any stretch. 61 points by a rookie is really good production. That is why analytics play such a big part in today’s game. They tell a much bigger story.

2017-18 Assists/Scoring

Entering year two, a lot was expected of the Leafs dynamic wingers. Questions were abound about whether they would experience the dreaded sophomore slump. Marner got off to a slow start, only to tear it up from Christmas on. Meanwhile, Nylander again drew the wrath of Mike Babcock for his lack of compete level at times. But overall, it was another good season by the Leafs young stars, that has them on the cusp of superstardom.

A look at the numbers from this past season show Nylander closed the gap on Marner. Nylander had more five-on-five primary assists per hour (1.11 to 0.66), secondary assists per hour (0.63 to 0.60), total points per hour (2.38 to 2.03) and individual shot attempts per hour (14.75 to 14.56).

Marner rightfully got praised for his season this past year. Even though Nylander is right there with him, all he gets is put on the trade bait board. He needs to start getting the respect as a top-tier player, barely scratching the surface of his true potential.

However, Marner once again bested Nylander in five-on-five goals per hour (0.77 to 0.63), which still surprises me, shots on goal per hour (7.36 to 7.03) and shooting percentage (10.45 to 9.02).

Nylander and Marner are almost identical as players. Both capable of driving the play on their line. Nylander is one of the best in the NHL at offensive zone entries, creating chances off the rush for Matthews. Keeping him on the wing gives the Leafs two dynamic pairs in their top six with, Matthews and Nylander, as well Tavares and Marner. That’s an enviable situation.

Conclusion

The trade speculation of Nylander needs to end. General Manager Kyle Dubas has stated on multiple occasions that the team’s young core is staying together. This should have made any trade rumors a non-topic. Toronto media is a different animal, however, and will continue to run with stories as long as possible.

The advanced stats show that Nylander and Marner are of an equal calibre. Both players are exceptional in their own right and will play a major role in trying to end the Leafs cup drought. Conventional thinking is that a top center and a number one defenseman are more valuable than wingers, and in most cases that is true. Nylander and Marner aren’t like most cases. Both are franchise talents that a team could build around.

Hockey, and sports in general, are full of comparisons. Players are always compared to their peers, to hype them, as well as to find faults in their game. Since Marner and Nylander play the same position and are set to be paid, the comparisons are endless. The Leafs should just count their blessings that they have two future superstars In Marner and Nylander for the foreseeable future. Oh, and Matthews and Tavares.

Stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com